Race for the White House- 5/3/08

And now for another very percursory look at the week in Presidential politics.... I don't feel like using actual paragraphs.... I think I will just do this old Lary King/USA Today style....

Barack Obama appears to be the winner of the Guam (Where America's Day Begins!) Caucues by a whopping seven votes...... any sort of win must be a relief to his supporters, who have not won any sort of contest in quite a while now.... a whopping four pledged delegates were at stake.... but in this Democrat contest, every little bit is going to count..... but wasn't he supposed to win by more than seven votes.....

On the issues, Obama is differing from his opponents, Hillary Clinton and John McCain alike, in coming out against a proposal for a gas tax holiday this summer..... Obama considers it a political gimmick and not any sort of long term solution.... He did once support such a plan though in Illinois.... in a campaign where issues are often overlooked, we will have to see if this has any effect on Obama's numbers....

Speaking of which, the effects of the Wright controversy continue to have an effect on the Obama campaign, even a week after he formally denounced the pastor....national surveys have shown that Obama has fallen several points in relation to his primary contest against Clinton and in a potential general election matchup against McCain... some writers have talked about how Obama appears very much taken off guard by all that happens and that he looks somewhat "defeated" by all it... At the same time, journalists marvel at the tenacity of Hillary Clinton...

Both Democrats have been interviewed on the Fox News Channel in the past week.... Lefty bloggers are pissed....

(Interruption to say, that I really hope I am not forced to write a post-mortem post tomorrow about some dumb Congressional special election in Lousiana)

Of course, the attention of the political world is now focused on the two basketball crazed states of Indiana and North Carolina where Clinton and Obama will be matched up... it is very interesting that those two states votes, in the month of May, will matter so much.... and to think John Edwards and Evan Bayh are not in the race...

Polls, (except for Zogby) show that Clinton has at least a slight lead in the Hoosier State while Obama is ahead (but by narrowing margins in most) in the Tar Heel State.. It should be expected that the candidates split those two states on Tuesday.....

If Clinton were to win a come from behind victory in North Carolina, a state with a sizeable African-American constituency, that will raise serious questions about the viability of the Obama campaign moving forward, and superdelegates would likely start taking notice... if Obama were to win a surprise victory in the Illinois-bordering state of Indiana, that would renew calls for Hillary to drop out of the race.....

But if as expected, they split the contests, the status quo will continue and the race will move on to the states of West Virginia and Kentucky where Clinton is expected to win big... and also the state of Oregon, which much better suits an Obama profile... although at least one poll currently shows a close race...

In conclusion, Hillary Clinton may hope that the tragic case of Eight Belles, the only filly in the field, and the one she had selected to win the Kentucky Derby while campaigning in the state earlier this week, finished a distant second in the race, broke down, and then had to be put down....

Rest in Peace Eight Belles and may the Democrat Primary Season of 2008 live on....