2008 Races- January Ratings
Now that it is 2008, I had initially wanted to once again give (somewhat) brief summaries of what is happening in all of the 2008 races for Governor and U.S. Senate, as I did once a season in 2007. I was going to do this in January and then again in March, but I realize that I just do not have the time or energy to once again commit to such an effort, that very few people will read anyway.
However, once it becomes; let's say August, I will start my 2008 Race of the Day and give more lengthy descriptions of all these races as they will then be at a point where they will have really started to take shape.
What I am going to now instead though is merely offer ratings for these races, once a month, based on what I anticipate happening in November, based on current events. I will revisit this in February and note any changes that I might have made since. As always, please feel free to give your opinions in the comments.
So, here goes:
AL Sen- Safe R
AK Sen- Leans R
AR Sen- Likely D
CO Sen- Tossup (R)
DE Gov- Leans D
DE Sen- Likely D
GA Sen- Safe R
ID Sen- Safe R
IL Sen- Safe D
IN Gov- Leans R
IA Sen- Likely D
KS Sen- Safe R
KY Sen- Likely R
LA Sen- Tossup (R)
ME Sen- Likely R
MA Sen- Likely D
MI Sen- Safe D
MN Sen- Leans R
MS Sen A- Safe R
MS Sen B- Likely R
MO Gov- Tossup (R)
MT Gov- Likely D
MT Sen- Likely D
NE Sen- Safe R
NH Gov- Likely D
NH Sen- Tossup (R)
NJ Sen- Leans D
NM Sen- Leans D
NC Gov- Tossup (D)
NC Sen- Likely R
ND Gov- Safe R
OK Sen- Safe R
OR Sen- Leans R
RI Sen- Safe D
SC Sen- Safe R
SD Sen- Likely D
TN Sen- Safe R
TX Sen- Likely R
UT Gov- Safe R
VT Gov- Likely R
VA Sen- Likely D
WA Gov- Tossup (D)
WV Gov- Safe D
WV Sen- Safe D
WY Sen A- Safe R
WY Sen B- Likely R
posted by Corey @ Saturday, January 05, 2008
7 comments
7 Comments:
Your fierce partisan optimism really tarnishes any semblance of objectivity you're trying to convey in these ratings. Sununu, Schaeffer and Kennedy of Louisiana, among other Republican favorites of yours listed here, are as sure losers as Mitt Romney.
I wouldn't say that Sununu, Shaffer, Kennedy, and Baby Blunt are sure losers, but I do not see where any objective evidence exists for calling them the favorites in their respective races, except maybe Kennedy and even that is largely conjectural.
There are a lot of other holes to poke in your predictions (most of which predictably are more pro-Republican than what most objective analysts would say) but I don't have time to discuss them all now.
Sure, you have time. You spend a lot of time at your job blogging! You have more time than I do these days, that is for sure.
Recent polls have shown Sununu with a double digit lead in NH and as you mention, polling has also put Kennedy ahead.
Recent polls have also shown Shaffer slightly ahead. Every poll out of CO show the race tied, which is why I said tossup.
MO polls also indicate a tossup.
But I am not basing these ratings on polls alone at the present time.
"Recent polls have shown Sununu with a double digit lead in NH"
There was one (outlier?) poll that showed that. Others have shown Shaheen ahead. To believe the poll that had Sununu with a double digit lead you'd have to believe that there was a 40 point swing against the Democrat in a couple of months, which seems implausible (Bill Shaheen's comments about Obama were dumb, but I don't think they had THAT much impact on his wife's candidacy.)
Louisiana polls have put both Kennedy and Landrieu ahead, but not overwhelmingly in either case.
Colorado polls generally show a tossup, but I don't see how that constitutes a clear edge for the Republican in Democratic-trending Colorado.
Most recent Missouri surveys have had the Democrat (Jay Nixon) leading the Republican (Blunt) narrowly. You could say that they're statistically tied, but how does that translate into an advantage for the Republican?
The Kennedy/Landreiu race is close. I would give Shaheen a slight nod only because of the enthusiasm on the dem side.
In NJ, I don't think is leans dem. It is unbelievably strong dem. They could elect a dead communist against even the most moderate Republican. That state might as well just call itself South Massachusetts.
Good post, btw.
Speaking of Massachusetts, only "Likely" Democratic? Has anyone of stature even filed to challenge Sen. John Kerry? And even if someone did, how likely is it that voters there will vote to oust him and conceivably give the GOP control of the Senate?
I know you probably still enjoy taking potshots at Kerry, but let's be realistic.
Don't tease me bro!
I mean, don't tase me!
Or something like that.
Post a Comment
<< Home