Nomination Countdown- 1/2/08
This first post of 2008 has us just a day away from the Iowa Caucuses and just six days away from the New Hampshire Primaries.
I expect that the New Hampshire results will be effected one way or another, in both parties, by what happens in Iowa. There will be weekend debates, etc. that should also play a role.
While I am about to give my full Iowa predictions, I am going to have to hold off on predicting New Hampshire at this point in the same way. If I have time, and if I feel I will not embarass myself, I may still post New Hampshire predictions before Tuesday.
Anyways, here are my full and complete Iowa predictions. I am certainly taking a risk here, especially since I am predicting order of finish and percentages. But, I have already entered these numbers in a couple of online contests, so I might as well post them here as well.
If anyone actually reads this, feel free to post your predictions in the comments!
Democrats:
Round 1
Clinton- 29
Edwards- 27
Obama- 26
Biden- 8
Richardson- 7
Kucinich - 2
Dodd- 1
Post viability drop outs
Obama-35
Clinton- 33
Edwards- 30
uncommitted- 2
Republicans:
Romney- 30
Huckabee- 28
Thompson- 12
McCain- 11
Paul- 8
Giuliani- 8
Keyes- 2
Hunter- 1
posted by Corey @ Wednesday, January 02, 2008
6 comments
6 Comments:
I would say the same except for the democrats after drop outs. I would put it at
Obama - 34
Clinton - 33
Edwards - 32
Looks like you were embarrassingly off the mark, Corey.
I'll look at all the numbers tomorrow and see.
Many others were far worse off the mark than I was.
On the GOP side, a much stronger than expected Evangelical turnout won it for Huckabee.
It's on to NH now. While not completely do or die for Romney, pretty close to it.
Huckabee will not be the GOP nominee, but McCain might.
Can he beat Obama though for the Indy vote next Tuesday?
I think you're predictions weren't THAT far off. You only got #'s 1 and 2 upside down on the repub side. But you did underestimate evangelical turnout, and overestimated Republican turnout in general - which helped Huckabee. Romney's late negative ads didn't do him any good. The real battle was for 4th. I was suprised at Thompson's finish. But McCain will be the guy to beat in NH. I don't think Huckabee will go over there. We'll see.
In Iowa it was a change vote, and people see Huckabee and Obama as that change.
What's very siginificant is that the democrats caucused at more than double the rate of republicans.
It appears Obama's strategy of mobilizing young people worked. I was expecting an Edwards win, with Clinton barely edging out Obama for 2nd. NH is do or die for her and Romney. If Mitt can't win in his own backyard, he can't win anywhere. If Obama wins NH, it's over for Clinton. It will look like she can't win anywhere. Coming in third is the LAST thing she wanted. The repubs will still still be up in the air after NH.
I'm interested to see how the 2nd place finishers spin this.
Corey, do you have a second choice if Romney flails in NH?
I am going to be very busy this weekend, but I hope to have a detailed post on what happened in Iowa and what I expect in New Hampshire to be posted on here sometime before Tuesday.
sku, if the race comes down to someone else vs. Huckabee as the final two (which I do not expect), I would support that someone else.
Right now, I am pretty certain that if my guy Romney does not get the nomination, then it will be John McCain.
For now, I remain strongly in support of Romney, and judging at how he won the non-Evangelical vote by 30 points last night, I think he will be in a good position in New Hampshire, whereas Sen. McCain is going to likely lose the Independents he needs to win to Obama.
Let me say briefly, that I actually think that Obama is going to win NH now, and probably South Carolina too, and yet amazingly enough still might not be the nominee.
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