2007-2008 House Special Elections

Due to a variety of circumstances, most of them quite unfortuante, the 110th Congress is seeing more vacancies and special elections that any in recent memory. Two districts will vote this Tuesday and a couple more will by the end of March.

In keeping with my practice of predicting the outcome of every U.S. House race in the country, here is how I see all those races going, in terms of party control. The makeup of these particular districts do all tend to favor Republicans, but crazy things often happen in special elections in regards to turnout and party intensity, and that is why they are always worth keeping an eye on.

If any of these predictions turn out to be wrong, I will have to revisit them here. Otherwise, this will be the only mention until next fall.

Illinois:

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

14. vacant upon the resignation of Dennis Hastert (R)- (GWB 55%)- Likely R

Louisiana:

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. vacant upon the resignation of Bobby Jindal (R)- (GWB 70%)- Safe R

Ohio:

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

5. vacant upon the death of Paul Gillmor (R)- (GWB 61%)- Leans R

Virginia:

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. vacant upon the death of Jo Ann Davis (R)- (GWB 60%)- Likely R