Sunday, January 17, 2021

2020 Elections Predictions Review- Part 2

This will be the second of three posts as I will briefly focus on my Senate predictions. As mentioned, the fact that the two Georgia races went to Runoffs allowed me to revise and I was correct on both of them. Otherwise, it would have been just one out of two in the Peach State.

The big picture shows that this week will see Democrats officially in charge of the Executive Branch, Senate, and House. Delving a bit deeper though shows how thoroughly divided the country remains politically. Twenty-seven out of 50 Governors are Republican. That is still pretty close, and the largest states are pretty divided along those lines as well. For California, there is a Texas. For New York, there is a Florida. For Pennsylvania, there is an Ohio. For Illinois there is.... well, at least Speaker Michael J. Madigan is finally gone!

The U.S. House, with one race not being determined, is closer than it had been before the last election, and about as closely divided between the two major parties as is almost ever the case. Majority rules though and thus Republicans will be frustrated. Still, any sort of "normal" midterm election for a Democrat President would almost assure the GOP taking over the House after the 2024 vote. Is that even possible though with the Republican Party entering the early stages of a "Civil War?" There is tremendous opportunity for Democrats to take advantage of this split in the short-term, but they have some clear ideological and thematic divides in their party as well, which will even bubble to the surface more as they have the burden of controlling the entire elected federal government. We should expect to see the vast majority of blue and red areas stay exactly the way they are.
Then, there is the U.S. Senate. Kamala Harris, soon to be sworn in as Vice President will cast any 50-50 votes, but there is where we are. The Senate is completely divided down the middle. There are very few remaining states left that have a split delegation and relatively few states that now have a Senator of a party that did not carry the state in the 2020 Presidential election.  

With my first attempt at Georgia predictions, my final November guess was a 51-49 advantage for Democrats in the Senate, but I wound up being wrong on two races, both won by vulnerable Republican incumbents. The days of me being accused of being a "GOP cheerleader" in my predictions are clearly long gone.


Moderate Republican Susan Collins won another term despite "ranked choice voting" in her state and despite being written off by so-called experts online for months. I regret that I let those views influence my own. In fact, I not only missed this race, but I missed it by "two degrees" as I said it was Leans Democrat. I cannot recall the last time I ever was wrong, if ever on here, on a final Senate or Gubernatorial prediction, by "two degrees."

In truth, I thought it would be closer than some determined because Collins has her own political "brand" in the state, but I thought issues related to her voting for or against Trump Supreme Court nominees and acquitting Trump himself in his first Impeachment (something she almost certainly will not do again) could spell the end for her. That did not happen though, and the streak of an actual Democrat not being elected in Maine to the Senate now stretches back to 1988. Clearly, Collins won because enough Trump voters stood by her and enough Biden voters felt she was not to blame for Trump or wanted to see her influence continue for the state or as a check and balance on Biden and the Democrats. In any event, in this 50-50 Senate, she will be more influential than ever before.

North Carolina-

This wrong prediction is easier to pinpoint. The Democrat, Cal Cunningham, seemed like he was on the road to victory, and I predicted he would in a Tossup, until his campaign was derailed by numerous information coming to light about how he cheated on his wife and helped other women cheat on their husbands. In some states, this might not have mattered much, but in North Carolina, it apparently did. Thus, Thom Tillis' term is renewed. His own long-ago divorce from his first wife was not as relevant to the voters as the mess in Cunningham's life. I took a gamble on a Toss-up race and lost this one. If not for Georgia, and winning the Senate that way, Democrats should really be angry at the libido of Cal Cunningham.

It cannot be denied that my Senate predictions this past cycle, while not perfect, were still pretty good.

2020 Results: 33-2 (94%)

Past U.S. Senate Results:  
2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)
2018: 33-2 (94%) 


At 7:32 AM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

Warnock & Ossoff both in the United States Senate, making them the first two Dem United States Senators from the Peach State since 2000.


Post a Comment

<< Home