Thursday, August 02, 2018

Arkansas Governor- Race of the Day

96 Days Until Election Day

Arkansas Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent
2016 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Four years ago, Republican Asa Hutchinson achieved his longtime ambition of being elected Governor of Arkansas. Despite having had a successful career in the U.S. House and as a member of various Republican Presidential Administrations, Hutchinson had been defeated in bids for statewide office in 1986, 1990, and as his party's nominee for Governor in 2006.

The timing was right in 2014 however, as the office was open and the state which was once heavily dominated by Democrats is now about Republican as it gets. Now, as he seeks reelection, Hutchinson's most recent approval rating is definitely in the top tier of Governors nationally. While he was held to 70 percent in the May Republican primary, he defeated the challenge of Jan Morgan, a well-coiffed redhead and Trump activist who had proudly banned Muslims from the gun range she owns. She claimed that Hutchinson was not sufficiently conservative as Governor.

Democrats also had a fairly non-competitive primary as former NASA scientist Jared Henderson, a first time candidate who led a statewide non-profit organization easily defeated Leticia Sanders, an African-American hairdresser who received about a third of the primary vote among her party.

In reading a bit about this race, I see that country music dj-like figure, or whatever he is actually is, Bobby Bones, whom I had never heard of before but who played a role in the recently concluded season of American Idol, had considered running for Governor of his state as an Independent. Despite having the image of the state tattooed on his arm, he did not run.

Much like the Democrat nominee for Governor in Alabama, Henderson, as a relatively young, telegenic and theoretically moderate candidate, might have been a very strong contender, in years past. In conservative southern states though, it does not matter how much older the incumbent is or how many decades they have been on the political scene. The label of Republican gives them a tremendous headstart and there is no reason to believe that Hutchinson, in what is likely his final campaign, is in any sort of danger.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

0 D, 4 R (2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

7 D (7 holdovers), 11 R (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)


At 4:20 PM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

Big test will be in 2022.


Post a Comment

<< Home