U.S. House Special Election

In one month, I will begin my look at each individual race for Governor and U.S. Senate. After that, I will make predictions for all 435 U.S. House races.


Today though, is a housekeeping manner, as a Special Election will be held tomorrow in Texas because a Republican Congressman with a penchant for booze and duckie pajamas had to resign. While it is possible that the district will elect its new Congressman tomorrow, there are going to be multiple candidates on the ballot and thus is is more likely than nobody gets over 50 percent of the vote, and this will eventually be decided in a runoff. Of course, the regular election is in November and has already held primaries (and a Republican run-off) to pick nominees for that. Those candidates will be on the ballot, along with others who did not compete in the regular primary, along with the defeated primary opponents, who are not actively competing in this special election. Turnout will be abysmal.

Anyways:

Texas 27

vacant upon the resignation of Blake Farenthold (R)
won by Trump with 60% of the vote

Lean R/Lean Cloud

As a reminder to 99.9 percent of the country, there is still one other special election pending, in Ohio that will occur in August. That will be a prelude to the November election between the same competitors. I already called that one as "Leans R" back in March and am not going to change it now.

All other special elections for U.S. House vacancies will occur congruent with the regular November general elections in those districts.