Sunday, December 07, 2014

Election 2014 Predictions Review

The votes have now all been cast and the results are final. I am going to assume that my call on the 2nd Congressional District of Arizona will hold, as that seems to be the conventional wisdom.


Incorrect Republican predictions:

Alaska- had as Tossup (R)- was won by Bill Walker, an Independent largely backed by Democrats (but also that embarrassment named Sarah Palin)

Incorrect Democrat predictions:

Illinois- had as Leans D, but won by Republican Bruce Rauner, with many votes to spare. Go figure. I will take it!

Maine- had as Tossup (D), but won once again, by Republican Paul LePage, with the help of a third party candidate, who dropped out too late, and divided the liberal vote. There is no reason in the world why LePage should be elected twice in that state, but that is the Democrats' problem!

Maryland- had as Tossup (D), as an Election Eve shift towards the GOP, but very happy to be wrong on the ultimate result, as Republican Larry Hogan won convincingly. Who saw that result coming when the fall campaign began?

Total 2014 Gubernatorial prediction record: 32-4 (89%)

Past Gubernatorial Results:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)

U.S. Senate

What else can I say? My scorecard was perfect

Total 2014 U.S. Senate prediction record: 36-0 (100%)

 Past U.S. Senate Results:

2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)

U.S. House

I should take a moment to note that in all the same party general elections (California, Louisiana, and Washington, I also offered the name of who I thought would win, and beyond being correct on the party, I also got every one of those names right, including the two Republicans who would advance and win runoffs in crowded Louisiana primary fields.)

Incorrect Republican Predictions:

1.  Arizona 1- had as Tossup (R), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick pulled off reelection
2.  California 7- had as Tossup (R), but Democrat Ami Bera was declared the winner of another term, several days after the voting
3.  Florida 2- had as Tossup (R), but a gaffe prone GOP incumbent was defeated by Democrat Gwen Graham
4. Minnesota 8- had as Tossup (R), but Democrat Rick Nolan won another term

Incorrect Democrat Predictions:

1. Georgia 12- had as Tossup (D), but thankfully a Democrat incumbent, who had survived serious challenges before, went down to defeat at the hands of Republican Rick Allen
2. Iowa 1- had as Tossup (D), but Republican Rod Blum won an open seat
3. Maine 2- had as Tossup (D), but Republican Bruce Poliquin picked up another open seat of a Democrat who left to unsuccessfully seek statewide office
4. Nevada 4- had as Leans D, but a strong GOP wave in the Silver State elected Republican Crescent Hardy
5. Texas 23- had as Tossup (D), but Republican Will Hurd, becomes one of two African-American GOP freshmen in the U.S. House

Total 2014 U.S. House Prediction Record: 426-9 (98%)

Past U.S. House Results:

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%) 

Overall Results:  494-13 (97%)

Past Overall Results:

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)

Why do I not get paid to do this? There's always 2016....


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