New Mexico Governor- Race of the Day

 52 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

New Mexico will elect a new Governor this year and the nominees do not agree on much but they do share common ground in saying the state's name must remain intact. They are not interested in Donald Trump's (trolling) suggestion that the Land of Enchantment become "New America."

 

This is a state that is not a blowout for the party and there is definite political competitiveness in the state, but New Mexico has mostly elected Democrats in recent decades and that is probably not going to change this year. However, there are some factors at play in this particular race that makes me cautious to at this point classify the outcome as "Likely."

 

Incumbent Democrat Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is not eligible to seek a third term. The Lujan family has been in New Mexico for many generations and active in both parties. The Governor's background as a Latina had some talk about her as a potential Vice Presidential candidate in 2020 but she did not appear to be seriously considered for that and also was passed up after interviewing with the incoming Biden Administration about the position of Secretary of HHS. She then apparently turned down the post of Interior Secretary to remain as Governor, while another woman from her state was tapped for that role. Like her predecessor as Governor, Republican Susana Martinez, also a Latina, Lujan Grisham has faced some embarrassing headlines about personal behavior. In this case, Governor Lujan Grisham paid a settlement to a male former staffer who accused her of sexual battery.

 

This year, New Mexico seems prepared to elect its third consecutive female Governor and in this case, it is the woman who took the job as Joe Biden's Interior Secretary that the current Governor passed up. Democrat Deb Haaland would become the nation's first female Native American Governor. A former State Party Chair, she was elected to two terms in the U.S. House from a blue leaning area of the state, before resigning to join the Cabinet. In running for Governor, she was considered the early frontrunner and her presence in the race likely kept some other big name Democrats out, including sitting Lt. Governor Howie Morales. Shortly after announcing her candidacy early last year, Haaland divorced the husband she married in 2021.

It was far from a complete coronation for Haaland however leading up to the June primary. For one thing, Ken Miyagishima, the former Mayor of Las Cruces, who is both Mexican and Japanese ancestry challenged her, but then dropped out of the primary to run as an Independent. While he failed to make the ballot, he has since endorsed the Republican nominee for the general election.

Haaland would face one opponent though in Bernalilo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. A cowboy hat wearing Jewish American, Bregman is also the father of MLB veteran Alex Bregman, who is currently having a great second half for the Chicago Cubs, after signing with my favorite team in the offseason. The prosecutor ran as a tough on crime alternative to the more liberal Haaland and with local politics playing some sort of role, was able to claim the endorsement of some Native American tribes, who favored him over his Native American opponent. Bregman tried to get the frontrunner to debate and was only able to be given one opportunity to do so.  It seems like the contest between the two got a bit personal as well. The outcome was not close. Haaland took 72 percent of the vote and while Bregman conceded on primary night, he made it clear he would not be issuing a formal endorsement of the nominee.

 

After a withdrawal and a disqualification, the final Republican Gubernatorial field featured three candidates. In a somewhat rare case for a Republican primary these days, none of the candidates seemed to emphasize personal support for Donald Trump too much. The winner with 47 percent was Gregg Hull, who had just completed 12 years as the Mayor of Rio Rancho. Businessman Doug Turner took 37 percent, a much better showing than his third place finish in the 2010 primary. While Turner was perhaps considered the most moderate candidate, he seemed to have the most support among Trump's ardent backers. In third place with 16 percent was Duke Rodriguez, the former state Human Services Department Secretary. In this race, he had this endorsement of his boss, former Republican Governor Gary Johnson, who has since become a Libertarian and ran as their 2016 Presidential nominee. After the primary, Johnson endorsed the Republican nominee Hull, which I think is at least somewhat of a significant development in the state.

 

This November, New Mexico voters will vote for a ticket that includes the nominee for Lt. Governor, In the state, those candidates are chosen separate from the Gubernatorial primary, but then the two run together. The Republican nominee is State Senator David Gallegos who adds some Hispanic diversity to the ticket. In the thee way primary, he took just short of 50 percent, 12 points ahead of attorney Aubrey Blair Dunn, the son of former Public Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn Jr., who in office switched from Republican to Libertarian, an historic first. The younger Dunn had run as the Libertarian nominee for Attorney General in 2018 and took five percent.

The Democrat nomination turned out to be a bit more complicated. The easy primary winner with 80 percent for Lt. Governor had been Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver. She defeated African-American State Senator Harold Pope Jr. Shortly after the primary though, the nominee withdrew citing health issues. Haaland inferred she should have the right to select the replacement for Toulouse Oliver but technically the decision rested with Central Committee of the state party. The bypassed primary runner up Pope and some others before choosing another female statewide office holder. Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard, who was being term limited for that office, had started off running in the primary for Lt. Governor but then dropped out due to her husband's cancer diagnosis. After Toulouse Oliver left due to health issues of her own, Garcia Richard said her husband's situation had improved and she was willing to run and serve, leaving both major party nominees with Latino Lt. Governor candidates, in a state that will this year elect its first non-Latino Governor since 1998.

 

Polls are showing Haaland is ahead in this race for Governor, but not by a huge margin. Conventional wisdom is that she should win and I will be very surprised if she does not. However, the candidate has a reputation of being pretty far to the left and based on the defection of someone like Miyagishima and the lack of full support from Bregman, could still have some divisions in her party that need to be healed. Hull is a credible candidate, but any Republican running this year in New Mexico still faces an uphill climb.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

13 D  (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2Tossup)

  9 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

19 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)