2024 Election Recap: U.S. House

It is now February and I should finally get to the point of the post-election cycle, where I tally up all my incorrect House predictions. I am going to try to separate these between ones that were called incorrectly for Democrats and those for Republicans. If I had classified any of these other than "Tossup", I will also mention that.

Republicans wins:

1. Alaska 1st District

The State of Alaska has almost always had a Republican Member of the U.S. House, but after the death of the longtime incumbent, Democrat Mary Peltota defeated the iconic Sarah Palin in rapid succession in both a special election and in the 2022 general election. This year, she lost to Republican Nick Begich, whom Republicans did not advance in the 2022 contest. I had a feeling I should have changed my prediction of Peltola beating Begich but I did not change any House predictions. Alaska has a somewhat complicated situation with four candidates advancing to a general election regardless of party and then ranked choice voting. Republicans worked to try to make that situation work to their advantage, and it was a narrow win for their candidate in November.

2. Arizona 1st District

Despite a very narrow reelection two years earlier, Republican incumbent David Schweikert was able to benefit from a stronger than expected showing for his party in Arizona in the 2024 election. While he will continue to be a target moving forward, he defeated Democrat Amish Shah by about four points.

3. California 41st District

Ken Calvert has been a House Member for decades and the Republican survived some early reelection struggles before becoming entrenched. In recent cycles, he has once again been quite vulnerable. In 2022, he defeated Democrat Will Rollins by four points. This past year many thought the political makeup of his district would catch up with him, but in a rematch, it was only just a tad closer.

 

4. Colorado 8th District

 

Democrat Yadira Caraveo won an extremely close open House race in 2022. I was a bit surprised she was unable to narrowly pull off a second term in bluish Colorado, but the Republican support in her district for Republican Gabe Evans was enough for a one point defeat.

5. Iowa 1st District

Well, Ann Selzer really had no idea what was going on in Iowa. Is she still being sued? If anyone should be suing her, it ought to be Democrats, and not Trump. In this district, Republican Marriannette Miller-Meeks, who first won her House seat by all of six votes in 2020, won a rematch against her 2022 opponent Christina Bonahan that many thought she would lose. While the Republican had won that match-up by over twenty-thousand votes in 2022, this time, the margin was less than one thousand. Still, a win is a win.

6. Nebraska 2nd District

Both of the two House districts that have its own individual Electoral College vote split their ballot in 2024 and I called both of them incorrectly. Here, Republican incumbent Don Bacon once again won enough crossover votes from people who also voted Democrat for President. In 2022, he defeated Democrat Tony Vargas 51-49 and in 2024, the margin was the same, albeit slightly closer. In the midterm of a second Donald Trump Presidency, Bacon might really be at risk (especially if the price of bacon is high) but Democrats could also probably user a fresher candidate.

7. Pennsylvania 7th District

Election 2024 turned out to be a rough one for Keystone State Democrats. One has to think it would have been at least a slightly better situation if Kamala Harris had chosen to run with Governor Josh Shapiro. For instance, this seat and perhaps a couple others might have gone blue and Hakeem Jeffries could be Speaker today. In 2018, Democrat Susan Wild had a pretty solid first victory. Her two reelection victories were increasingly tighter though and in 2024, she lost by one point to Republican Ryan Mackenize.

8. Pennsylvania 8th District

Here is one I got wrong and I had even called it as "Leans Democrat." So, to me, this would be the biggest upset in the entire cycle. Incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright's district had become more Republican than the one he was first elected to, but he had survived some recent close races. This cycle though, first time Republican candidate Rob Bresnahan beat him by nearly two points, with the national political environment likely providing the key factor.

9. Pennsylvania 10th District

While this is a fairly Republican district, incumbent Scott Perry looked to be very vulnerable by virtue of being seen as one of the most strident right-wingers in the House and questions about his views on the events of January 6, 2021. Voters though, seemed not to care all that much after all. While this was the closest call of Perry's career, he held on to defeat Democrat Janelle Stelson by just over five thousand votes. He clearly will be targeted again in 2026.

Democrat wins:

1. California 45th District

In 2022, Republican Michelle Steel, one of two female Korean-Americans in the California Republican delegation won a second term by four points. I was expecting she would narrowly defeat Democrat Derek Tran in 2024, but instead, she was unseated in one of the closest races in the nation. Steel seems to be preparing for a 2026 comeback attempt.

 

2. Maine 2nd District

 

Considering the overall national results, I found myself in an awkward position of rooting for Democrats to have any many wins as possible, so here is one I was happy to be wrong about. Despite Donald Trump once again carrying this rural district, Democrat Jared Golden, easily among the least liberal of House Democrats, held to win by one than one percentage point against Republican Austin Theriault, just barely avoiding the threshold for ranked choice voting to kick in. Now, Democrats are looking to Golden to perhaps run statewide, which could put this House seat at risk of going Republican.

3. Michigan 8th District

I feel like this was one of the districts I misjudged the most, as a Democrat seat became open in a blue-collar area of Michigan. Nonetheless, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet held the seat for her party over Republican Paul Junge who had lost competitive House races in the prior two cycles,. The third time would not be the charm, and it was not even really a Tossup at the end, as Rivet won by about six points.

4. Washington 3rd District

This is the race I was most happy to be wrong about. Two years ago, the Republican incumbent who voted to impeach Donald Trump after January 6 was kept off the general election ballot by MAGA lacky Joe Kent, who came with ties to extremist groups. In turn, he lost this seat to Democrat newcomer Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by just about one point. I had serious concerns that Kent would win a rematch during a Presidential election cycle, but MGP managed to pull off an impressive 52-48 win for a second term. Now, Kent is apparently taking a job in the Trump Administration which would seemingly rule him out for a third Congressional run, and it is too early to say for which party that may or may not be good news.

2024 U.S. House Results: 422-13 (97%)

Past Results:

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)

2016: 429-6 (99%)

2018: 419-15 (97%)

2020: 415-20 (95%)

2022: 420-15 (97%) 

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Cumulative Result History:

 

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%) 

2018: 487-18 (96%)  

2020: 459-22 (95%) 

2022: 487-19 (96%)

2024: 465-15 (97%)