Democracy 2024: # 52

On this final weekend of 2023, I will try to delve into the "big picture" of our political landscape as it relates to the 2024 Presidential election.

When 2023 began, few could have expected Donald Trump to end the year in as good of a political position as he is currently in. His legal situation looks a lot more dire than it did at the beginning of the year, so his political standing is in spite of that, or perhaps even because of it. His hope is that by being elected President once again next November, he can make all of his legal troubles "go away."

Right now, Trump is easily the frontrrunner for his party's Presidential nomination, which is not something that looked as likely when the year began. Many thought that Republicans would be worried about electability and be willing to move on from Trump. While many clearly are, others have become more emboldened in defending against liberals, the media, prosecutors, and any American institution that Trump takes issue with.

When the year began, Ron DeSantis, recently reelected Governor of Florida in a landslide, looked like he could appeal to the Republican electorate as a younger, more articulate, and more conservative version of Trump. His campaign has floundered basically from Day One and the postmortems are already being written. For the people who truly believe in Trump, there has been no other viable option. For those in the Republican Party concerned that Trump would have a hard time winning against Joe Biden, polling data from the last several months say otherwise. Whether it is indeed true or not, Biden is the one who looks like the underdog against Trump, and that is not something that many people thought would be the case at the beginning of January.

Joe Biden has a lot of political problems. He is old, rich, and white. If that were not bad enough, he is male, Christian, and heterosexual. He is everything that the current generation of young people who lean left have been told all their lives to believe is suspicious and has too much power in society and emblematic of all sorts of groups that need to be taken down notches in the names of diversity and inclusion. Thus, the portion of the political base that Biden desperately would need to carry by large margins to win reelection are not with him at this point and he and his party will have to fight hard and do whatever it takes to turn out and vote for him, even if they are not really voting for him, but simply voting against Donald Trump. This is all despite the fact that Biden has led the most liberal Administration in generations. That is not good enough for young leftists. He has not managed to forgive all their student debt, which they think they are owed. He has not taken a stance against Israel to the disappointment of many on the left, who hold false beliefs and theories about the one true democracy in the Middle East, because they have been led astray by perverse and bigoted narratives.

Many say the economy is getting better. For many Americans, they economy is going along well, but most Americans do not feel it. They feel sticker shock at stores and at the gas pump and have anxiety about the future of their job. An incumbent President always takes the brunt for that frustration and this particular Administration has been unwilling or unable to meet people where they are in terms of their impressions on the economy. Such a thing has doomed reelection sinking incumbents before. Never forget that it was Democrats in 1992 who introduced into the political consciousness that the economy is really the only thing that matters, more so than national security, the character of the candidates, the moral climate of the nation, or the survival of democracy itself. "It's the economy, stupid", we were told more than 30 years ago and our political culture has only grown more stupid since.

In spite of all this pessimism for Democrats, Biden and his party should be able to vastly outspend their opponent. They should be better organized. Will their supporters have less motivation though? There simply is not much enthusiasm for Biden out there, for reasons previously mentioned, but all of which comes back to concerns about his age. I do not believe there is anything wrong with Joe Biden's brain (at least that was not always an issue for him going back to the start of his political life), but he is old and looks older than he is. He has aged visibly in office from a physical standpoint. Biden does not look like he is on death's door, but to most Americans, regardless of political ideology, he looks like someone who should be spending his remaining years somewhere being  relaxed and as stress free as possible. It is hard to imagine how after the grueling campaign of the next year, he would not be adversely affected by age over the fours of a second term. This is and will remain a major hurdle for Biden, who is said to be unwilling to acknowledge the reality of this or to even discuss these concerns with his staff. His ego is simply too big to understand that he should never have run for reelection.

Trump has many problems too, some of which are related to his advanced age. The difference though is that Trump comes across as so much of a child, that people do not see him as being in a doddering state of geriatrics. The former President will be spending much of 2024 in courtrooms, even as he tries to delay legal proceedings for as long as possible. This potential 2020 rematch will be a very unconventional campaign to say the least. For a variety of reasons, I cannot imagine there will be any Trump vs. Biden Presidential debates. When this becomes a story, Trump will claim that Biden is afraid to debate him or unable and unwilling to demonstrate his mental fitness on a debate stage and the reality is that many American voters will agree with that assessment.

A lot of Republicans are convinced that it is only a matter of time before Biden ends his reelection campaign, to be replaced as nominee by Kamala Harris, or Gavin Newsom, or Michelle Obama, or whomever.  They feel that this will make winning harder for Trump, and they are probably right. At this point of time, I do not see Biden willingly ending his political career after so many decades of the pursuit of the Presidency and all his personal animus towards Trump. A few weeks ago, he said he might not be running for reelection if Trump were not in the race. That was a very problematic thing to say politically because it leads to the impression that Biden believes that only he can beat Trump and that beating Trump is the bigger focus than actually serving the country in office. He then tried to do some damage control by saying that about 50 Democrats could also defeat Trump. So, why exactly is he running again then? Privately, many Democrats are definitely hoping that Biden can find a way to gracefully exit the scene before the November voting. That is very wishful thinking on their part.

 

Adding to Biden's problems are the legal hot water his son Hunter is in. This has been talked about much in the past year and will be a major focus of 2024 as well. If nothing else, it distracts and dilutes from the legal and ethical problems facing Trump. On a policy front, the current situation at the southern border is a huge problem for Biden and his party. For decades now I have said that some Republicans have been unreasonably and demagogic on the issue of illegal immigration, but the situation is now worse than ever and a major strain is being places on localities around the country. Democrat controlled cities and states are feeling the brunt because they have declared themselves as "sanctuaries" for illegal immigrants and political game playing Republicans from other states are trying to prove a point. I will say that there was much that was inhumane about the Trump policies at the border when he was President, but the Biden policies are significantly lacking in reality, which leads to other sorts of inhumane conditions. Democrats have to find a way to even be willing to say that the border must be protected and some people simply cannot be let into the country. Many though on the party's left flank are unwilling to give an inch on the matter. They believe they have to "own" MAGA just as much as Trump's base thinks that all that matters is "owning the libs."

Foreign policy should be a major part of the 2024 race but with so much emphasis on the economy and issues related to immigration, crime, and fear over which potential nominee may be painted as a "dictator", might not get as much attention as it should. Republicans are divided over supporting Ukraine over the brutality of Russia and Democrats are divided over supporting Israel over the brutality of Hamas. I find both of these situations to be quite unfortunate and symbolic of the decay of both major political parties. With all that in mind, it is probably a good idea for pro-Ukraine and pro-Israel Americans to spend as little time as possible on social media platforms like Twitter/X or engaging with mindless tribalists in online communities. The "mainstreaming" of anti-Semitism over the past few months, in the wake of the attack on Israel has been a very disheartening aspect of 2023 for me, both as an American and as a Jew. I feel like this will be a battle that will be fought at home for a long time against voices on both the far right and far left.

Basically speaking, if the election turns out to be a referendum on Biden himself, he will probably lose. If it becomes a referendum on Trump himself, whom in his official Christmas greeting, called on those opposed to him to "rot in hell", he will almost certainly lose. The strategy for Democrats is clear but it might be difficult to convince Americans to not look primarily at the performance of the incumbent. If there are incidents of chaos and unrest in America in 2024, such as masked people waving Palestinian flags and accosting Americans just wanting to go about their daily lives on neighborhood streets, and highways, or public events, the blame for that will go to the incumbent and the left-wing of America.

If the major issues of the election are crime or immigration, Republicans will probably win. If it is indeed about the economy, it could go either way, but presently, would seem to point against Democrats. If it is about abortion or healthcare coverage, it would seem to point against Republicans. Similar to how Democrats struggle to contend with concerns about illegal immigration or an overwhelmed asylum seeker process, Republicans have been unable to shift from their long-sought victory in the Supreme Court on Roe v Wade being overturned, to coming across as reasonable on the abortion issue overall. I will always side with those who are wishing to protect the Right to Life of the innocent unborn, but that battle is never going to be won until and unless hearts and minds can be changed, and today's conservatives are causing that to trend in the wrong direction by their posturing.

A big focus on 2024 will also be about third party and Independent candidates. Right now, several from the political left may be willing to sap votes from Biden's base. Others, like myself, will be hoping for a more centrist alternative, even if they cannot win, but to simply have someone to vote for. Getting such a candidate on the ballot seems more complex and muddled by the month, but the market is definitely there. Democrats fear that. They believe such an effort would hurt the very weak Biden who needs to be propped up politically. If that becomes a fear, groups like "No Labels" will almost certainly stand down as to not be a spoiler and elect Trump. That would be a very sad situation. While I forced myself to do so in 2020, I can think of no reason to vote for Joe Biden in 2024 and have no intention of doing so. However, in my view, above all else, Trump must never be elected President again. Thus, I might have to "root" for someone I cannot vote for and hope that there are enough people who would be able to do what has to be done. It is nothing short of heartbreaking to me to have to live in this political reality.

I wish for good health for Biden of course. What often goes unspoken though is that if Biden were to have any sort of medical episode next year, as men in their 80s often do, and however temporary or recoverable it might be, it will be a political disaster for his party. There will have to be real talk about if he can legally be replaced on general election ballots by replacements, and that might lead to court battles. 

 

We are already facing those in the coming months regarding the Colorado Supreme Court decision to remove Trump from the ballot due to the belief, but not successfully litigated claim that he committed Insurrection. This week, the Maine Secretary of State removed Trump from that state's ballot. Shenna Bellows has said that she wants the Supreme Court to have the final say on it but her actions are very unprecedented and can only be used to Trump's benefit politically. In some ways, he actions are even more concerning than in Colorado. She is a former Democrat politician, who was selected by Maine's Democrat controlled legislature. That is how the office of Secretary of State is filled in Maine, and that is of course valid, but it has to be mentioned that she is not even elected by the voters, unlike the Secretary of State in most other members of the Union. It would be a very troubling concept if an unelected bureaucrat can by their own whims remove a candidate from the other party from the ballot. As I mentioned last week, until and unless Trump is criminally convicted in a court of law, this decision on him should be left either to the political party he belongs to or to the voters themselves.

Before the general election is set, we will still have the nomination contests. The Iowa Caucus (for Republicans only) is rapidly approaching and that will be the lead off contest. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are engaged in a battle on the trails and on the airwaves to knock the other off politically so that they can at least stand a chance of maybe, maybe stopping Trump.

 

Presently, so many Republicans are resigned to Trump leading the party, even as they wish that did not have to be case. Basically, this has been their default position going back to early 2016. At times, it looked like the party could break free of Trump, but the fear of antagonizing his base has been too much for them to actively try to break free. That is political cowardice of the first degree. Privately, many of these people who will publicly defend Trump or make excuses for him, wake up every morning hoping to turn on the television or to look at their cellphone and see a headline that Mr. Trump might have passed away in his sleep the night before. That is the only way they think they can get rid of him and begin the process of moving forward.  It is all pretty morbid.

As mentioned, DeSantis has had a worse 2023 than expected and it should also be mentioned that Haley has had a better 2023 than expected, though right now, that might not be worth all that much. Haley became a major story this past week as somehow the Civil War and slavery have been a hot topic. I have said for a long time that she is a skittish and gaffe-prone politician, who tries to be all things to all people. She might be my party's best and perhaps only hope of stopping Trump but I have to call her out as being pretty gutless. For example, she is saying she will pardon Trump if she becomes President. Somehow, she thinks that will get the MAGA crowd to not hate her as much.

On this episode at a New Hampshire Town Hall, Haley did not mention slavery as a cause for Civil War in the 1860s and instead embarked on a Kamala Harris like "word salad" that spoke about the role of government and freedom. Reading between the lines, I could sense a theme of anti-slavery in it, but it would have been so much easier to just have called out slavery as a past evil and have been done with it in about 15 seconds before moving on to the next question. Instead, it because a media brouhaha. Those on the left who legitimately fear that she could be a much tougher opponent for Biden have a vested interest in her being harmed politically which is why much of this got as much attention as it did.

Haley does have a long history, going back to her early years as a political who succeeded in Deep South South Carolina despite her unconventional personal background of dancing around matters related to the Confederacy. She has also at times demonstrated leadership and conscience, such as her belated actions to remove the Confederate Flag from the state capitol. She also Tweeted a message of solidarity with those who felt personal pain over the killing of George Floyd in 2020 and blockheads on the right have never forgiven her for that. So, she was very concerned about pissing off those people when she was asked a question in New Hampshire by an obvious Democrat plant. Guess what, that happens in politics, and especially in New Hampshire Republican primaries. She should have been prepared and not whine about it after the fact. Some guy in New Hampshire wanted to make her look bad and he succeeded beyond his wildest dreams. What is both funny and said to me is how Trump and DeSantis backers are attacking her for not being anti-slavery enough, putting aside the controversy a few months back regarding how slavery was being taught in Florida curriculum or especially all the completely outrageous and irresponsible things said by Donald Trump on a daily basis.

Chris Christie was right to call out Haley for being a "slippery" and "slick" politician. It is the truth after all, but it is also true that Christie will perhaps reach a point in the very near future that he will need to check his own ego if it is clear that Haley is the only viable option against Trump among Republicans. He did at least state he does not believe she is racist and I agree with that. The daughter of Indian immigrants and the mother-in law of an African-American man is not "pro-slavery." She just needs to avoid falling into the traps of being enslaved by the political demands of an impossibly illogical segment of the conservative base.

Let me end this last post of 2023 on a positive note. I want to salute the actions taken this week by Ohio's Republican Governor Mike DeWine who vetoed (perhaps only to be overridden) a bill passed by the Republican legislature of his state related to transgendered individuals. There were aspects of the bill related to school sports and I think there may be legitimate issues of concern in that regard, but that theme is exploited by disingenuous conservatives who have a different underlying agenda.

DeWine gave his reasons for vetoing the bill as having related to efforts to ban medical treatment for transgender youth. Almost nothing disturbs me more about the current position of the Republican Party by the way hypocritical conservatives, especially those who claim to be Pro-Life and pro-parental rights have exploited and twisted this issue. DeWine said he has talked to individuals and parents who view medical treatment for those, a very small number overall, who suffer from extreme body dyphoria as a life-saving necessity. Those who join me in wanting to protect the life of the child in the womb should also want to protect the life of a child who feels hopeless and suicidal. I do not know anybody well personally who has dealt with these issues, but I think simple human compassion is needed. 

 

Nobody under the age of 18 are getting their genitals surgically altered. No child is being forced to become a different gender by their parents against their will. No child is having medical treatment without parental approval and involvement.  No child or family is having any sort of medical treatment done without extensive physician intervention and approval. Nobody is asking anybody to be forced to like trangenderism or to even understand it. Certainly, nobody is asking you to pay for any of these procedures. So, if it is not your life or your child, stay out of it and mind your own business. If you claim to believe that the family unit and the rights of parents to raise their own living children should prevail over the mandates of the government, why are you trying to use the government do the things you are doing? How dare you?

Thank you Governor DeWine for reminding us what actual conservatism is supposed to be.