Saturday, July 31, 2021

Texas 6th District

 Long time no post. Looking ahead to the near future, I will have full analysis and predictions ahead of September's California Gubernatorial Recall show as well as regularly scheduled elections for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia.

I always like to own up to any incorrect electoral predictions though. Technically, I do not have an incorrect one in the 6th District of Texas as I predicted that a Special Election would be "Safe Republican." However, it was an all Republican runoff, and my May 31 prediction of "Likely Susan Wright" would turn out to be wrong. The widow of a Republican Congressman who had succumbed to Covid related complications was defeated by Jake Ellzey, who is now the newest House Member from the Lone Star State.

Late in the game, I knew that the race was closer than originally anticipated, but I decided not to change my prediction to favor Ellzey or was otherwise too lazy to make an altered post. This result has to be considered at least somewhat meaningful. Of course, by no means is Ellzey any sort of "NeverTrump" Republican. He ran as a vocal Trump ally. However, the endorsement of the perma-angry former President had gone to Wright and he exerted much effort to try to help her via robocalls, etc. It did not work. Ellzey had other GOP endorsements, raised far more money and conducted a more active campaign. Trump alone could not deliver the victory for the candidate he had endorsed. Since this result on Tuesday night, he has not made a peep about the outcome, not even to claim the election was rigged or stolen.

It is worth mentioning that a Democrat had hoped to advance to the runoff in this suburban district that Trump had won only narrowly, but failed to do so. Most in the party said that both Republican advancees were too far to the right and it was not even worth voting. However, it looks like some Democrats did vote anyway and went for Ellzey. Their anger towards Trump has not abated and potentially, it could have made a difference in the outcome.

In his victory speech, from what I have read, Ellzey made no mention of Trump, but spoke of being a "Reagan Republican" and also said voters had chosen to vote for a "positive message." Could that have been subtle shade at Trump? I do not think he would have dared said that before the runoff. Instead, he was issuing emails that kept showing up in my spam folder. When I looked at one, Ellzey warned that his runoff defeat would signify "complete surrender to the socialist agenda of Nancy Pelosi and the end of the American Dream" or words to that effect. So much for a positive message! Of course, what was unsaid in this email to Republicans across the country (which I was once proud to be) was that he was running against a fellow Republican who had been endorsed by Trump. Inside the district though, Ellzey's people quietly let word go out to Democrats that his opponent was Trump's choice, and he was not.

I can only hope that this might be a small sign of the GOP turning back to Reaganism and away from Trumpism. To at least some degree, this runoff showed political weakness for Trump and should be a message to all in the party not to let him dominate the entire thing as we move ahead towards the 2022 midterms and the next race for President in 2024. Since 2016, Trump and those associated with him have suffered many defeats at the ballot box and Republicans should keep in mind that his "complete and total endorsement" comes with a lot of risks.


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