Saturday, February 27, 2021

2020 Elections Predictions Review- Part 3

I have been procrastinating on this post for some reason, even after tallying up the totals. I actually did not do as bad with these predictions as I thought, but as everyone knows, Republicans won far more House seats than expected in the 2020 elections. I have mixed emotions about that while at one point I would have been overjoyed with such an outcome.

Every incorrect House prediction I made this cycle was in predicting a Democrat over a Republican and I will just itemize them here.

As a quick note, these official tallies do not include California-53, a Safe D district between two Democrats, where I said more liberal Georgette Gomez was a Tossup favorite over eventual winner Sara Jacobs. These results will also definitely not include the pointless special election in Georgia 5, for the right to be the shortest termed and lamest of ducks. This was another Tossup and I incorrectly picked Robert Franklin over Kwanza Hall, I suppose not having fully been in the Holiday spirit.

1. CA 21

I had called this race a Leans D, but former Congressman David Valadao enacted revenge on freshman T.J. Cox Valadao has proven he is one of the bravest and most principled Republicans in Congress by his Impeachment vote earlier this year.

2. CA 39

In what I predicted as a Tossup, Republican Young Kim, a Korean-American, won a rematch against freshman Democrat Gil Cisneros who defeated her in 2018.

3. CA 48

This was an even bigger surprise to me, as I had it Leans D, but Republican Michelle Steel, another Korean-American woman took the seat from another freshman Democrat, Harley Rouda. These results in California, along with the survival of a GOP incumbent were definitely positive down-ballot signs for the party. What will the Republican Party do moving forward?

4. CO 3

I took a risk calling this Tossup (D) considering the nature of the district and sure enough, one-time QAnon nutjob Lauren Boebert, who had beaten an incumbent in the primary, held the seat in the general election over Diane Mitsch Bush

5. FL 26

Here was the first of what I called Tossups in neighboring South Florida districts. For a variety of reasons, Republicans showed surprising strength among Latino voters in this area and this district saw Carlos Gimenez take back a seat from freshman Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

6. FL 27

To some, this was an even more surprising result. Republican Maria Elvira Salazar beat another freshman Democrat, but one long known in American political circles, Donna Shalala.

7. IA 1

Another Tossup wrong here and another freshman Democrat going down to defeat as Ashley Hinson beat Abby Finkenauer.

8. IA 2 
This was an open seat I called a Tossup and went back and forth on my prediction up until the end. Ultimately, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, after several previous attempts won a seat in Congress by the narrowest of margins over Democrat Rita Hart, who tried, with no avail, to get Nancy Pelosi and company to seat her anyway.

9. MN 1

Another missed Tossup as freshman Republican Jim Hagedorn hung on to win reelection over Democrat Dan Feehan

10. NJ 2

Once again, a Tossup gone wrong, as freshman Republican and recent party switcher Jeff Van Drew, defeated Amy Kennedy, wife of a former Congressman and in-law of about a dozen others.

11. NY 2

A Tossup for an open seat saw Republican Andrew Garbarino beat Democrat Jackie Gordon by what turned out to be a solid margin.
12.  NY 11

Freshman Democrat Max Rose, in what I called as a Tossup, and was perhaps the one I was wavering the most on, lost to Republican Nicole Malliotakis.
13.  NY 22

This one took literally months to become official and is one of the handful I had predicted as "Leans D." Here, conservative former Congresswoman Claudia Tenney won a re-match against freshman Democrat Anthony Brindisi for the right to return to Capitol Hill. I am glad that Democrats were not able to "steal" an election after the fact.

14. OH 1

In retrospect, I messed up in calling this one Tossup (D). Longtime incumbent Steve Chabot defeated Democrat Katie Schroder with 52 percent of the vote.

15. PA 10

Despite my calling this a Tossup, incumbent Republican Scott Perry beat back a challenge from statewide elected official Eugene DePasquale.

16. SC 1

This Charleston based district returned to its recent GOP heritage when Nancy Mace unseated freshman Democrat Joe Cunningham. Both might still be considered rising stars in their parties. Of course I predicted it as a Tossup.

17. TX 23

Here is another one I had as Leans D, but Texas still acted like Texas last November, including in this open district. Republican Tony Gonzales, who was fortunate to win the nomination, defeated Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who has now lost two tough elections in a row.

18. TX 24

This open district I only had as Tossup (D) but was also wrong. Republican Beth Van Duyne defeated Candace Valenzuela.
19. UT 4

Two years ago, I was very disappointed when Democrat Ben McAdams upset Republican Mia Love. In 2020, I was somewhat surprised, despite calling it a Tossup, when McAdams lost to Burgess Owens Like Love, Owens is an African-American Republican, but will be a far Trumpier one.

20. VA 5

I took a risk in calling this a Tossup, but Republican Bob Good, after an unusual nomination defeat of an incumbent Republican, went on to defeat Democrat Cameron Webb.

2020 U.S. House Results: 415-20 (95%)

Past Results:

2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)
2016: 429-6 (99%)
2018: 419-15 (97%) 
Finally, a tally of all the results for Gubernatorial, Senate and House races:
459-22 (95%)
Past Results:

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%)
2018: 487-18 (96%)



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