Monday, October 26, 2020

U.S. Senate Races Updates

 8 Days Until Election Day

It has been over a month since I last posted predictions on all of these races. Frankly, there are many that could go either way and that will decide the balance of power. Republicans are by far playing more defense though and traditionally almost all marginal races tend to go to one party. That has been somewhat tempered in recent cycles though as strong states for one party or the other have made the difference in who won.

The State of Georgia will be intriguing next week. There are two very competitive races and both have the possibility of heading to a January runoff election. One of those races is all but certain to do so. When I did my write-up on that race, it looked like a real possibility of two Republicans advancing. Since then, Democrats have coalesced behind a candidate who is likely to come in first and it will be a battle between two Republicans to advance to the run-off. As mentioned, another D vs. R contest may share the billing. If the Senate Balance of Power is on the line still at that point, that would actually be bad news for Democrats. Furthermore, it Joe Biden is elected President, as conventional wisdom is saying likely, that will make it harder for Democrats to win these seats in Georgia, especially if Democrats already have Senate control.
I have not made many changes to these, which is a surprise in the sense that I thought some seats would "come home"  for one party or another to a greater extend more at the end, but much has appeared static.

Alabama- Likely R
Alaska- Leans R  
Arizona- Leans D
Arkansas- Safe R
Colorado- Leans D
Delaware- Safe D
Georgia A - Tossup (R)
Georgia B- Tossup (R)/Tossup (Loeffler)- change form Leans R/Tossup (Loeffler)
Idaho- Safe R
Illinois- Safe D
Iowa- Tossup (D)
Kansas- Leans R
Kentucky- Likely R
Louisiana- Safe R/ Safe Cassidy
Maine- Leans D
Massachusetts- Safe D
Michigan- Leans D
Minnesota- Leans D (change from Likely D) 
Mississippi- Likely R
Montana- Tossup (R)
Nebraska- Safe R
New Hampshire- Safe D
New Jersey- Safe D
New Mexico- Likely D
North Carolina- Tossup (D)
Oklahoma- Safe R
Oregon- Safe D
Rhode Island- Safe D
South Carolina- Tossup (R)
South Dakota- Safe R
Tennessee- Safe R
Texas- Leans R
Virginia- Likely D (change from Safe D) 
West Virginia- Safe R
 Wyoming- Safe R

U.S. Senate races predicted:

16 D (7 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup) 
19 R (9 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Lean, 3 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

51 Democrats (35 holdovers, 6 Safe, 3 Likely, 5 Lean, 2 Tossup)
49 Republicans (30 holdovers, 9 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Lean, 4 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 4 
Past U.S. Senate Results:  
2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)
2018: 33-2 (94%) 


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