Sunday, October 25, 2020

Governor Races Updates

9 Days Until Election Day

As it has now been over a month since I gave predictions on the Gubernatorial races, it is time to revisit. However, there does not seem to be much in the way of changes, at least in terms of ultimate result. These contests are not the headlines of Campaign 2020 and rarely are during a Presidential year.

Delaware- Safe D
Indiana- Likely R
Missouri- Leans R (change form Likely R) 
Montana- Leans R
New Hampshire- Safe R (change from Likely R)
North Carolina- Likely D (change from Leans D)
North Dakota- Safe R
Utah- Safe R
Vermont- Likely R
Washington- Safe D
West Virginia- Leans R (change from Likely R)

Governor races predicted:
3 D (2 Safe, 1 Lean)
8 R (2 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Lean)

Total predictions:

23 Democrats (20 holdovers, 2 Safe, 1 Likely)
27 Republicans (19 holdovers, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Lean)

Republican net gain of 1
I feel like the only one I may possibly get wrong here is Montana. That open seat would allow Republicans to make a 1 seat gain on what might otherwise be a tough night. 

For an historical perspective, here is I have done in Gubernatorial races in past cycles:

Past cycles-
2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%)
2018: 35-1 (97%)


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