Sunday, September 06, 2020

Race of the Day- South Dakota U.S. Senate

South Dakota U.S. Senate

58 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent
2016 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

In the early part of this century, Democrats held both of the South Dakota Senate seats and there were some epic electoral battles in attempts to flip them. The turn to an all Republican delegation was complete in 2014 as former Governor Mike Rounds won an open seat, although with just 50 percent of the vote in a three way race against the Democrats' nominee and a former GOP U.S. Senator running as an Independent.

As he seeks a second term, Rounds should not have much trouble at all. Some on the right in this conservative state continue to have issues with Rounds from back when he was a two term Governor between 2003 and 2011. State Representative Scyller Borglum challenged the incumbent in the June primary. She took just 25 percent of the vote though after a campaign promising to bring an outsider's perspective and also more vigorously defend the Presidency of Donald Trump.

The only Democrat to file for this race was Daniel Ahlers who went from the State House to the State Senate, and then a few years later back to the State House, before ultimately losing a close race for reelection in 2018. This will not be a competitive race, but Democrats are likely happy to just to have a candidate. In the somewhat recent past, they have gone without a U.S. Senate nominee, and indeed this year are not challenging the reelection of the state's freshman U.S. House member.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

15 D (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Lean, 3 Tossup) 
15 R (5 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

50 Democrats (35 holdovers, 6 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Lean, 3 Tossup)
45 Republicans (30 holdovers, 5 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup)


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