Monday, August 08, 2016

Race of the Day- Delaware Governor

91 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Open
2012 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

General elections have gotten fairly boring in Delaware during recent years. Democrats dominate most offices in the state and a Republican has not been elected Governor since 1988. With the rare GOP statewide elected officials once again declining to try to run for Governor, the Democrats' streak is almost certain to continue against lower level competition.

Two term Democrat Governor Jack Markell is term-limited, and as he began his final term, it looked like he was going to be succeeded by a man with a very famous name in the state. Democrat Beau Biden, the state's former Attorney General, had declined to stay in that office, in order to prepare to run for Governor. Biden's father of course is the Vice President, and he served Delaware in the U.S. Senate for decades. With two members of that party holding Senate seats, the Governorship looked like an obvious choice for the younger Biden, who was seen as a rising star in the party. His ultimate election was nearly taken for granted, but his campaign never really formally began. It was understood that Biden was dealing with health issues, but it came as a surprise to many in the state, when he died in 2015, at age 46 of brain cancer.

Due to these unfortunate circumstances, Democrats would now have a better shot at the Governorship, but the party quickly coalesced behind John Carney. As Lt. Governor, he was considered the sold favorite to become Governor in 2008, but was upset in the primary by the more liberal Markell. He continued his streak of general election victories though in 2010, by being elected to Congress in the state's one district.

Carney is in a very solid position to be elected Governor this time around. In September, Republicans will formally nominate his opponent. The favorite to win the primary is State Senator Colin Bonini, who in 2010 lost a race for State Treasurer. He first has to get past retired state trooper Lacey Lafferty. Her bio states she is a former model, and I feel like the less I say about that the better.

Considering the political makeup of the state, and Carney's record with the voters, I do not think either Republican  has much of a chance this year.

Bonini campaign link:

Governor races predicted thus far: 1 D (1 Safe) 0 R
Overall predicted thus far: 12 D, 27 R


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