Saturday, April 30, 2016

Race for the White House Volume 70

In most recent election cycles, general election matchups are basically determined by March. This time around, to some extent in both parties, the contests have lasted longer than usual, with the concept of important delegates still being decided at the last primaries in June and the potential of convention fights beyond.

The media though, along with many Americans, now seem to be convinced that a Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump contest in the fall is inevitable, after both front-runners racked up more victories in the Northeast this past week. Democrat candidate Bernie Sanders is alternating between sounding resigned to inevitable defeat in the delegate count and inching closer to making comments suggesting that he might be keeping his options open in case Hillary Clinton gets indicted. In any event, the Sanders campaign, despite having a lot of money on hand, has laid off many staffers throughout the country this past week, and despite the fact that he won Rhode Island on Tuesday, some in the party are increasing calls for him to drop out and unify behind Clinton. For her part, the former Secretary of State seemed quite agitated and indignant in stressing at an MSNBC Town Hall forum that she is ahead in delegates and is winning and nothing might possibly upset that outcome.

It has been a confusing week for Republicans to say the least. So much hinges on what will happen this coming Tuesday in Indiana. If Donald Trump wins, there will be even more calls in the media that the nomination is all but wrapped up and that there would be no purpose to pursue an effort to deny him the nomination on the first ballot. As a life-long Republican, stopping Trump remains a matter of moral conviction.

Word came out last Sunday night that Ted Cruz and John Kasich were "unifying" for the purpose of stopping Trump. Kasich would stay out of Indiana and let Cruz take him on in the Hoosier State while Cruz would return the favor in the states of Oregon and Washington Since then, both candidates and their teams seem to be bending over backwards to say that there was not an alliance and that people should still vote for them in every state. It is just a matter of conserving resources, etc. All of this is probably very confusing to non-political junkie anti-Trump Republican leaners, especially since Cruz and Kasich seem to be calling for the other to drop out of the race.  For his part, Trump called the effort "pathetic" and tried to infer that it was some kind of illegal collusion. Only a dishonest fool like Trump would claim to be upset about having less candidates actively campaigning against him in various states.

Since Trump's recent string of wins in the northeast (which was pretty expected), his national numbers have increased again as a sense of "inevitability" or momentum might be at play. The belief is that he has also moved ahead in Indiana, a state that has been considered a must-win for Cruz. Still, some polls vary, showing anything from a very close race, to a hefty lead for Cruz, in what appears to be an outlier. If Kasich backers do strategically vote for Cruz, as has been seen in states in past weeks, Cruz might still win Indiana and the Never Trump movement will have gained some steam back. Just yesterday, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, a one-time Presidential hopeful, who decided to seek reelection instead, said he would be voting for Cruz, but he also went out of way to praise Trump, perhaps muting the effect of the semi-endorsement.

In what is perhaps the most unconventional development of the week, Ted Cruz now has a running-mate, despite the conventional wisdom that he is less likely to be the GOP nominee. He selected businesswoman and former Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina, who endorsed him several weeks ago. While I respect and admire many things about Fiorina, I do not think it is a strong selection under the current weird circumstances or under ideal circumstances, for Cruz, or anybody else. However, he managed to make the news with this move, after Trump's wins this past week, and she might prove to be effective in going after Trump, especially as the race moves to the state of California, where she lost a Senate race in 2016. The Cruz-Fiorina logo is in effect and the signs are printed, as if this is something for anti-Trump folks like me to get excited over. Oh well. Maybe we will luck out and Trump will call her a real vile name that will have the people in the party ready to surrender to Trump fired up to stop him again.


At 9:57 AM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

For Trump to win in November, he's going to need to win the following:

1.) 70% of Anglos (Romney only got 59% in 2012 against Obama).

2.) 13%-19% of African Americans if Trump plays his cards right by talking about the economic situations, etc.,

3.) 35% of Latinos

4.) He'll need to win OH, FL, VA, PA (if he can spend millions there), IA, CO, New Mex., NV & hold onto the Romney states from 2012.

At 11:36 AM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

BREAKING NEWS: OH Governor John Kasich (R) expected to drop out!


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