Saturday, October 11, 2014

Race of the Day- Wyoming Governor

24 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent
2012 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Very few states can claim to be more GOP than Wyoming. It will take a monumental upset for any state contest to not be won by a Republican in the foreseeable future.  However, intraparty divisions may begin to play an even bigger role in the state's politics.

Matt Mead won a crowded and competitive Republican primary four years ago en route to becoming Governor of the Cowboy State. Also elected on the GOP ticket that year was Cindy Hill as State Superintendent of Education. Controversy ensued when Hill was accused of mismanagement and failing to execute the department's duties.The Republican controlled legislature passed and Governor Mead signed a bill that took away much of the department's authority, essentially making it a ceremonial office. Hill was naturally quite upset at this and launched a primary bid for Governor against Mead.

Despite his incumbency, and being a heavy favorite in the polls, the August primary victory went to the incumbent with just 54 percent of the vote. However, the statewide elected official Hill finished a distant third, at under 13 percent. She was easily surpassed by Taylor Haynes, a African-American physician and rancher who frequently dressed up as a cowboy. He had run as an Independent for Governor in 2010, became somewhat of a Tea Party favorite in this primary in overwhelmingly caucasian Wyoming and received close to a third of the vote.

Whatever local issues and fissures on the right caused Republican voters to want to replace Mead, those political headaches pretty much went away his having secured his party's nomination. The Democrat candidate, running unopposed, albeit in a very low participation primary, which included a good deal of undervotes is Pete Gosar. He resigned as state Democrat Chairman to make the bid, as did the candidate who had defeated him in the 2010 primary for Governor. The Democrat nominee will not be the only Gosar on the ballot in America next month. His brother Paul is a conservative Republican Congressman from Arizona.

While a conservative leaning Democrat spent eight years as Governor of Wyoming before Mead took office, and while a less than totally unified GOP will keep the incumbent's margins down somewhat, the state will easily reelect it's Governor.

Mead campaign link:

Total Gubernatorial races predicted: 15 D (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup) , 21 R (7 Safe, 7 Likely, 7 Leans)
Overall predicted total: 22 D, 28 R (Democrat net gain of 1)


Post a Comment

<< Home