Monday, October 06, 2014

Race of the Day- Vermont Governor

29 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent
2012 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

While it is not unheard of for a Republican to win statewide office, Vermont remains a bastion of liberalism. It currently has a Democrat as Governor, and Governors of both parties always seem to win reelection in the Green Mountain State. With that being said, I do not see any evidence the race in Vermont is competitive this year.

There are certainly some quirks to the state's politics. It is one of just two to hold elections for state office every two years instead of every four and candidates can file to run for multiple offices Third party leftist candidates can sometimes split the vote and hurt the Democrats, but in some elections, there is an alliance between them and the more openly socialist Progressive Party. They are not opposing incumbent Governor Peter Shumlin's bid for a third two-year term, and Shumlin and the Democrats have endorsed the Progressive bid of their candidate for Lt. Governor in what is a separate election.

Some Democrats may have issues with Shumlin as seen by the fact that he was held to just 77 percent of the vote in his party's primary. H. Brooke Paige, who is apparently a former news service CEO and recent Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate somehow got 16 percent of the Democrat primary vote.

The Republican nomination was won, with just slightly a smaller percentage of the vote by businessman Scott Milne. Both of his parents once served in the state legislature. Nearly 15 percent of the Vermont GOP Gubernatorial primary vote was cast for "write-ins." I bet there were some interesting selections there.

Milne seems to be a reasonably credible candidate for Governor and the few poll results we have seen from Vermont indicate the race might be closer than expected. My hunch is that some liberals may go for independent candidates and that Milne will probably have a ceiling of support though. While polls have shown the race anywhere from a 10-12 point margin, with many remaining undecided voters, absent some further evidence, I cannot put together a rationale of claiming that Vermont might possibly dump a Governor for the first time in decades in favor of a Republican. All Election Nights usually contain at least one true surprise though.

Milne campaign link:

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 15 D (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup) , 19 R (6 Safe, 7 Likely, 6 Leans)
Overall totals predicted thus far: 22 D, 26 R (Democrat net gain of 1)


At 12:10 PM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

The LG in Vermont is elected independently SEPERATELY.

Now the big question is how long will Shumlin last in office ?

Considering Howard Dean was that state's longest-serving governor for 11 1/2 years in office (1991-2003), I'm betting he'll leave in 2016.


Post a Comment

<< Home