Sunday, September 28, 2014

Race of the Day- South Carolina U.S. Senate B

37 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent
2012 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

One of two special elections to the Senate in 2014, the Palmetto State features a general election match-up between two African-Americans. That is certainly significant in a Deep South state like South Carolina and only the second time this has happened in American history. The last time was the epic 2004 Illinois mismatch between Barack Obama and Alan Keyes, in which I got to cast my first vote against Obama. (There are a lot of people out there in America these days who wish they could say they voted against him in three general elections.)

The winner of this race will have to run again in two years, but Republicans have a huge edge in South Carolina federal elections, and thus a lengthy Senate career is a possibility for GOP Senator Tim Scott. Having just been elected to a second term in Congress in 2012, the only current black Republican to be seated, Scott, with his inspiring life story, was seen as a likely future contender for the Senate or Governor in his state. Then, in what was somewhat of a surprise, nationally active Republican Senator Jim DeMint announced he would be resigning his seat two years early to run the conservative Heritage Foundation. That left Republican Governor Nikki Haley with the responsibility of appointing a Senator. She said she would pick someone who would run for the seat in the next election, and while several other names were publicly mentioned, the most likely person for the gig was always Congressman Scott. The appointment of the relatively young African-American to the Senate by a young Indian-American female Governor was very warmly received by the overwhelmingly white South Carolina GOP.

Scott was not seriously challenged for the nomination in 2014, after joining the Senate, and Democrats did not seem to be too intent on challenging him in this special election. The easy winner of their primary, with almost two-thirds of the vote was Joyce Dickerson, a Richland County Councilwoman who seems to be at least a generation older than the 49 year old Scott. She surpassed former York County Councilman Sidney Moore, who is also black, as her closest competitor. At least the party did not have another Alvin Greene situation.

There is not much reason to believe the general election is very competitive, as the somewhat historical racial nature of the race aside, the state is likely paying more attention to the races for Governor or the other U.S. Senate seat held by incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham. Scott will likely win by the widest margin of any of the three Republicans in those races and then in 2016, run again statewide, in what will be his fourth consecutive election overall every two years, before finally getting a break from the campaign trail.

Scott campaign link:

Senate races predicted thus far: 12 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup), 18 R (8 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) 
Overall predicted thus far: 46 D, 48 R (net Republican gain of 6)


At 4:19 PM, Anonymous SE Cupp Fanatic said...

Tim Scott has this.

At 5:08 PM, Anonymous Conservative Democrat said...

Scott will be in the United States Senate FOR LIFE.

SE, next debate for Texas Governor between Abbott and Davis is Tuesday, September 30th in Dallas.


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