Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Race of the Day- Oklahoma Governor

49 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent
2012 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Likely Republican

The results of this race are really not in any doubt, and may very well produce a landslide reelection win for first term GOP Governor Mary Fallin. However, based on the fact that almost a quarter of GOP voters cast a vote against the incumbent in the July primary, and at least one poll, not long after that vote, showed a competitive general election, I cannot say the race is entirely "Safe." There are very few incumbent Governors this year that do not have people angry at them, for whatever reason.

Democrats used to dominate Republicans at all levels, but over the past thirty years, the GOP has increased it's strength at the federal level. State government took a longer time, as Democrats held on to most offices, but after 2010, the state became as Republican as anywhere in the nation and Republicans dominate at all levels. Many old-time voters may still consider themselves Democrats, but they certainly do not vote that way, and the party label itself, especially in a midterm election like this one, may be a drag on all the party's candidates at the state or Congressional district level.

Once Lt. Governor, where she endured a messy divorce, Fallin went to Congress, and then returned to the state government after having remarried and winning the 2010 election over a female Democrat opponent. I cannot claim to know the reasons she may have had some political difficulty in office or if there is "something about Mary" that kept her primary margin below 80 percent.  She might have lucked out a bit when a Tea Party associated former State Senator ended his Gubernatorial primary bid against her to take a chance on a suddenly open Senate seat, where he did not do much at the polls.

Unopposed for the Democrat nomination to take on Fallin was State Representative Joe Dorman, after the bigger names took a pass. He is bald and has a goatee, hardly a winning look for most politicians, especially against an attractive lady like Governor Fallin. (I really do not know what else I can say about this race I suppose.) The focus of the contest seems to be on education and other local issues. A post-primary Rasmussen Reports poll surprised a lot of people by showing that Fallin was only ahead of Dorman by a 45-40 margin. More recent polls show what amounts to a basically insurmountable lead for the incumbent however.

If  people in the state are going to go for a Democrat, it is probably far more likely in a state race then a federal contest. Another poll though at this late date that might show a large Fallin lead would assure me that this race was totally "Safe" for her, but even if her political popularity is not sky high in the Sooner State, the place is so Republican that she should have very little to worry about.

Fallin campaign link:


Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 11 D (1 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) , 15 R (4 Safe, 5 Likely, 6 Leans)
Overall totals predicted thus far: 18 D, 22 R


At 5:23 PM, Anonymous Conservative Democrat said...

Fallin should win with 64% in November and another GOP sweep of all statewide offices.

The bigger question is by 2018, whether former Governor Brad Henry (D) will reclaim his old job by then in 4 years from now ?


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