Sunday, September 07, 2014

Race of the Day- New Hampshire Governor

58 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent
2012 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

The Granite State, along with neighboring Vermont, vote every two years for Governor, and it is always quite unlikely to see a Governor be defeated after just a single term. They are usually given more time to implement their agenda. Due to that factor, first term Democrat Maggie Hassan is the favorite to be returned to the top office in the state. It is also true though, that wave elections, which favor either party, are often felt soundly across New Hampshire. When one party does very well, such as many expect Republicans to do this year, it can be felt across all aspects of state politics, from a Gubernatorial race, to the Senate and House races, and the hundreds of state legislative races.

This Tuesday, New Hampshire holds its primary, one of the last few states to do so. Hassan will easily win renomination for the Democrats, but the GOP primary is a bit more uncertain. The race though is expected to come down to two Republicans with a three syllable last name that begins with H. Andrew Hemingway is a young businessman and conservative activist, who in 2012, was Newt Gingrich's state director in the first in the nation Presidential primary state. Walt Havenstein is older than his main opponent and is a businessman and retired Marine Corps officer. Neither seems to have held elective office.

There is not much to go on as to which Republican should have the edge on Tuesday. Havenstein seems to be more of an establishment choice and has polled as somewhat more electable than Hemingway. Based on an unpredictable turnout though, either candidate may win.

Both would start out as an underdog against Hassan, but a fairly recent poll showed a tighter than expected race, especially against Havenstein. The Live Free or Die State is known for a strong anti-tax sentiment, which is why the Gubernatorial office used to be dominated by Republicans. As more Democrats from Massachusetts have moved into the state though, it has become far more competitive.

There will be other races in New Hampshire (all of which contain female Democrat incumbents) that will get more attention, but if the race becomes truly nationalized, this could be more interesting. That is the only thing that is keeping me from calling this contest as "Safe" for Hassan. However, it would take a pretty big upset for her to lose this year.

Havenstein campaign link:

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 10 D (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup) , 12 R (3 Safe, 3 Likely, 6 Leans)
Overall totals predicted thus far: 17 D, 19 R


At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Oregonian Conservative said...

NH swings widely. With NH-1 likely already flipping to the GOP (most likely) and NH-2 a tossup I can see Hassan sweating.

At 10:11 PM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

Hassan should win 55-43.


Post a Comment

<< Home