Sunday, August 31, 2008

Missouri Governor Race

Race of the Day

Missouri Governor

August 31, 2008
65 Days Until Election Day

Status: Open Republican
2004 Presidential Race: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Democrat

The Show Me State has not been kind to their incumbent Governors over the past few years. In 2004, the state's freshman Democrat Governor was defeated in a primary by a candidate who would go on to lose in November to youthful Republican Matt Blunt. After becoming Governor, Blunt ran afoul of public opinion in the state and has consistently been pretty unpopular. He seemed a longshot to win reelection and might have even faced defeat himself in a 2008 GOP primary. So eventually, he declared that he had accomplished all his objectives in one term and would not be seeking reelection. In the wake of that development, and due to the dissatisfaction over his administration, Democrats seem to now be favored to win back the office.

The Democrat candidate is Jay Nixon, who serves as the state's Attorney General, having successfully won that office more than once. However, he also faced defeat in his career running statewide as his party's U.S. Senate nominee, both 10 years ago and 20 years ago. He was also once involved as Attorney General in a controversial policy matter that angered many African-Americans in the state but the Democrat coalition seems to solidly be in his corner this time.

His Republican opponent is Congressman Kenny Hulshof who jumped into what looked like it could be a crowded GOP primary after Blunt's withdrawal. Ultimately though, it was only a two person race and Hulshof narrowly defeated the State Treasurer who was viewed as a more "maverick" Republican choice.

Since Democrats have long since united behind Nixon, they have had the advantage of a head start in this race. Some polls have shown Nixon leading Hulshof by as many as 20 points plus. More recently though, the latest from Rasmussen puts the Democrat's lead at 12 points, while a Survey USA poll from a month ago showed a much tighter six point race.

All things considered, the odds are stacked against Hulshof and the GOP here. However, Missouri will be the site of some pretty heavy Presidential campaigning in what is considered the ultimate Presidential bellweather state and if the GOP is able to achieve a high level of party unity behind Hulshof, who has been considered an impressive political figure for some time, the race could be far from over. Whomever wins will then be faced with the challenge of not being just another one-term Governor.

Hulshof campaign link:

2008 Governor Races predicted: 2 D, 1 R
Predicted Gubernatorial total thus far: 24 D, 18 R


Post a Comment

<< Home