Saturday, August 09, 2008

Indiana Governor Race

Race of the Day

Indiana Governor

August 9, 2008
87 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Incumbent
2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Four years ago, the political situation in Indiana was one that allowed former White House budget official Mitch Daniels to play up his affiliation to President Bush, who had called him "My Man Mitch" to see him unseat a sitting Democrat Governor. Four years later, Indiana is seen as far more of a battleground and now Governor Daniels will not be mentioning President Bush very much, but instead will be focusing on his own record as Governor.

Due to budget related matters and some other issues, it has not always been smooth sailing for the first Republican Governor of the Hoosier State in nearly a generation. Democrats have been focusing on trying to deny him a second term for quite some time now and in may, their primary was won by Jill Long Thompson, a former Congresswoman who already had some electoral losses under her belt, and then after having been defeated for her reelection, served as an Assistant Agriculture Secretary in the Clinton Administration and would eventually lose a Congressional comeback attempt in 2002. Despite these setbacks, Thompson, who would become Indiana's first female Governor, won a very competitive and close primary over an opponent, who others have said would have been more of a threat to Daniels in a general election.

Still though, many pre-primary polls between Daniels and Thompson have showed a very close race. More recently though, polls have shown that Daniels has established a lead. The closest poll has it at 5 points while a couple of others even have it into the double digits. Daniels has a heavy money advantage and appears to now be favored to be reelected, if not overwhelmingly so. If the next batch of polls from the state show him with a double digit lead, this race would probably move into the "Likely Republican" column.

In the meantime though, people are expecting a close race in the Hoosier State both for Governor and in the Presidential contest. The focus on the state would be even greater if Senator Evan Bayh, one of Barack Obama's presumed top choices to be his Vice Presidential candidate is put on the ticket. Such a move would certainly not hurt Obama in the state, but it would also add an angle of increased attention to this contest for Governor as if Daniels is reelected and Bayh were to be elected as Vice President, the state's GOP Governor would be able to name a Republican replacement.

Daniels campaign link:

2008 Governor Races predicted: 1 D, 1 R
Predicted Gubernatorial total thus far: 23 D, 18 R


At 5:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is Conservative Democrat:

Missouri's governorship is going to the Dems with longtime State Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) winning BIG with 63 percent of the vote in a landslide-DEM GAIN.

I still think Long Thompson will pull off the upset in Indiana.

At 5:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


CD here, here is the likely United States Senate outlook in November:

57 Democrats (CO, New Mex., VA, NH, OR and AK)

43 Republicans

Both Udalls win their Senate race HUGE:

CO-Mark Udall wins, 56-44.
New Mex.-Tom Udall has this in the bag with 70% percent of the statewide vote.

VA-Warner won this Senate race the second John Warner retired: Warner wins BIG over Gilmore: 69% to 30, cementing Democratic control of the Commonwealth.

New Hampshire-Shaheen wins the NH Senate race very easily over the fading Sununu: 58% to 42%.

Oregon-Merkley in an upset, 50% to 49% due to massive Democratic turnout.

Alaska-Begich will be the new Senator from Alaska in November-Stevens is DONE: 56% to 39%.

If the Dems pull off upsets in North Carolina and Minnesota, they get 59 seats in the Senate.

In 2010, the Dems will get the 60 needed for a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

1. North Carolina-with either outgoing Governor Mike Easley (D), State Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) or US Congressman Brad Miller (D-NC), unless Hagan gives it another shot in 2010.

2. Arizona-with Governor Janet Napolitano (D) winning the Senate race in 2010 over a weak GOPer once McCain is elected Prez this year.

3. Florida-with either US Congressman Robert Wexler (D-FL), US Congresssman Ron Klein (D-FL), or former US Congressman Jim Davis (D-FL).

US Congressman Kendrick Meek (D-FL) could run for the Senate down the road, perhaps in 2012 once Nelson retires.

4. Kentucky-this seat will be GONE in 2010, look for either State Auditor Crit Luallen (D) or Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo (D) to pick-up the Senate seat for the Dems in KY.

5. Kansas-depends if Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) runs.

6. Iowa-if Grassley retires, former Governor Tom Vilsack (D) runs for the Senate seat.

At 6:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


Corey, this is Conservative Democrat.

Here in my homestate of Texas, Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) has announced that she will run for KBH's Senate seat in a special election come 2010.

However, I do expect Governor Perry to appoint Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) to the Senate seat and KBH will get a cabinet spot in McCain's administration-Secretary of Education.

Perry will win reelection to a 3rd full term as governor in 2010.


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