Saturday, June 21, 2008

Race for the White House- 6/21/08

Summer is officially here and there is a lot of excitement baseball wise in Chicago, but nonethetless, the campaign of 2008 marches on and here are a few questions to ponder:

Which national poll is more accurate: the Newsweek survey showing Democrat Barack Obama ahead of Republican John McCain by 16 points or nearly all the other polls such as the daily Gallup tracking one which has it at just a two point race?

Which state polls are more accurate: the Quinnipiac survey which shows Obama ahead in three very important swing states such as Ohio and Florida or the Rasmussen surveys which show a one point McCain lead in Ohio and an eight point lead in Florida?

Which potential First Lady had the better week politically speaking: Michelle Obama or Cindy McCain?

What is up with Obama's new campaign version of the Presidential seal? Is that just an innovative campaign item or is it an example of a candidate for the first time equating a political campaign and his own feeling of self-importance with the traditions and symbols of the country itself?

Is McCain's new embrace of offshore drilling in response to high gasoline prices and Obama's opposition one that is likely to benefit the Democrat or the Republican?

With Obama confirming that he will be the first candidate since Watergate to not take public matching funds mean that he will be able to absolultely obliterate McCain on the money front after the convention season?

Will voters hold it against Obama that he has clearly gone against his word on this?

Can McCain capitalize?

Is it an issue that people really care about?

But doesn't it all relate to a matter of fundamental honesty?

Doesn't it show that Obama is just a politician above all else and that his main selling point of being "different" and "fresh" is sort of bogus?

We can surely expect weeks and weeks of back and forth between the two candidates in what has already been a pretty snippy campaign. One thing looks clear though; this election will ultimately be a referendum on Obama above all else. In many ways, McCain is a supporting character. The fact that Obama may outspend McCain by hundreds of millions of dollars sounds ominious to be sure to Republicans, but this is not likely to be a traditional campaign.

McCain may not need to be able to match his opponent anywhere near a dollar for dollar margin if he can effectively make the case that the candidate the Democrats are poised to nominate, who inspires either great passion, both favorable and unfavorable among many Americans, is not ready to be President, or would be too much of a gamble, he can win.

But to do that, he has to make doubts about Obama stick because he is not going to be able to compete financially.

Speaking of which, please consider donating to candidate who kept his word and will need as much help as possible at:


At 12:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with you about this being a referendum on Obama. It feels like right now it is Obama's race to lose. That will likely change. Most poll averages put Obama at about 4 points ahead nationally. I think that is realistically where he's at.

My official June 22 prediction is that the popular vote will be a similar margin as it was in 2004, but that Obama will carry more of the swing states, causing the electoral vote to skew strongly in his favor.

The independents and undecideds I think will be much less split than the last 2 elections. They will move decisively one way or the other.


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