Wisconsin Governor- Race of the Day

20 Days Until Election Day

Wisconsin Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

Inexplicably and in my view unfortunately, the State of Wisconsin may be about to host its first World Series in decades. It has been a hotbed of political activity in recent years and right now, there is indeed a competitive Gubernatorial race underway. However, the contest does not seem to be getting much national attention at all, even as the state could elect the first ever black Governor from the Midwest. Maybe it is just that the other Wisconsin races over the past generation have been seen as closer or maybe there is just much to focus on elsewhere, especially in regards to Senate races. Luckily though for Democrats, a particular scenario was avoided in the primaries, which would have probably had Republican candidates from coast to coast talking about their nominee, and which would have put this office much more at risk.

 

In 2018, the wonkish Democrat Tony Evers narrowly knocked off the nationally known incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker as he sought a third term. Four years later, he won reelection with 51 percent of the vote. Evers could have sought a third term but many were taken by surprise when he announced last summer that he would not seek to remain Governor for another four years at age 75. An extremely large field of Democrats sprung to action.

 

Before that though, a lot of Republicans were also looking at running in the competitive state that Donald Trump had twice carried. Eric Hovee, the businessman who very narrowly missed out on becoming a Senator in 2024 after losing to the incumbent Democrats decided not to run in this election though. Neither did businessman Tim Michels who had lost to Evers in 2022. Former Governor Scott Walker decided not to make a comeback and neither did 84 year old Tommy Thompson, who had apparently considered another political comeback attempt. He had won four terms as Governor starting in 1986, The remaining candidate thought to have the most potential was Congressman Bryan Steil, first elected in 2018, but he decided to stick with his current job, All of this left an opening for Tom Tiffany, a conservative Congressman from northern Wisconsin, who as a State Senator won a 2020 special election. The only other major candidate had been Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, but he dropped out early this year, right after Trump endorsed Tiffany (the candidate, not the daughter whose name he might not even remember.) In the August primary, Tiffany took 95 percent of the vote.

 

Most of the action was on the side of the Democrats though after Evers announced his retirement. The field would not include current Attorney General Josh Kaul, considered a rising star in the party, or former State Party Chair Ben Wikler, who had just lost a bit to become DNC Chair (something that many party activists probably regret now.)

 

It would though include both Democrats who had been Lt. Governor under Evers. In the first term, that post had been held by Mandela Barnes, a young African-American from the activist wing of the party, In 2022, Barnes captured a U.S. Senate nomination, after all of his prominent opponents dropped out after his primary victory looked assured. Despite that attempt at party unity, Barnes fell short by 1 percent in a general election against divisive Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. A Democrat not considered to be as far left as Barnes likely would have won that race. That same year, Evers won a competitive reelection running alongside Sara Rodriguez, (whose husband had been born in Mexico.) She entered the race for Governor and was considered by some to be the party's frontrunner. 

 

A handful of other Democrats with bases of support also got into the primary field. One of them was David Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive, the political post which had catapulted Republican Scott Walker to the Governorship previously. A former State Representative, Crowley was like Barnes in having been born in 1986, and also in being African-American, indicating the potential for a split demographic vote in the primary. Another candidate was State Representative Francesca Hong from the liberal bastion of Madison. Initially, one of the lesser known candidates in the race, Hong, born in 1988, was the first Asian-American member of the state legislature. Having dropped out of college, she worked her way up in the restaurant business and eventually became a chef and the owner of a restaurant that closed in 2024. Hong was also an avowed Democratic Socialist. Additionally, she had previously disclosed that she had been diagnosed as bipolar and had been hospitalized earlier in her life for mental health reasons. None of this is a traditional selling point for someone who wants to Governor.

 

With so many Democrats in the race, dividing up the vote, polls showed Hong in an increasingly strong position, backed by support from Madison and many of the state's liberal university students (and faculty.) Many in the party also became increasingly fearful she could win the nomination and then lose the general election to Tom Tiffany. They had good reason for concern. Hong held some very weird views, and even as she tried to step away from or explain some of them, she came across as far from ready for prime time in television interviews. In addition for past support of abolishing the police and other far left positions, he received a lot of attention for posts she had made over the years in which she made it clear that she was one cook who hated Thanksgiving. When this came to light, she tried to walk it back despite having been on the social media record saying that it was a horrible event that celebrated colonialism and was a "superspreader event that killed indigenous folx." (her spelling.) 

 

Suddenly, a nationwide political discussion sprang up about the socialist frontrunner for a Gubernatorial nomination in a key battleground state that might want to outlaw Thanksgiving. (Donald Trump might want to get rid of another holiday in November that involves voting.) The idea of course was to get "folks" in the state who liked eating turkey and watching the Packers on Thanksgiving to be agitated. As the fear of her nomination increased, a bunch of the Democrats dropped out of the race, which would seemingly consolidate support for someone other than Hong? To whom though? David Crowley, who was lagging in the race, dropped out and endorsed Sara Rodriguez. So did Missy Hughes, the former CEO of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation. So, it looked like Rodriguez was the hope for sanity in the party. However, less than a month before the primary, the Lt. Governor was suddenly out. Her campaign had badly botched her financial disclosure forms and she decided that this issue would be too much of a distraction to allow her to win the Governorship in 2026.

 

So what then? Would the only hope for mainstream Democrats in Wisconsin wind up being Mandela Barnes, the guy who had fumbled a winnable Senate general election just two years earlier? Party insiders seemed desperate for other options. Outgoing Governor Evers suddenly got involved, and it was not to back the man who had been his Lt. Governor. Evers was able to entice Crowley to get back into the race, with his endorsement. This turned out to be a strong political move. Others who had been supporting Rodriguez switched to the re-ignited Crowley campaign, which not long ago had literally been dead. The plan also succeeded in getting Barnes to drop out in late July. He said it was clear who would become the nominee, though he did not say whom. He likely meant Hong. It also appeared that a story was about to break accusing Barnes of sexual misconduct with young women as a party leader. 

 

The names of Barnes, Rodriguez, and Hughes would remain on the ballot even though they had dropped out and it appeared very possible that whatever vote they still received could be enough to let Hong pull through against Crowley. The active field continued to include a more moderate former state Cabinet Secretary and a female liberal State Senator from the same area as Hong. Polls seemed to indicate that Hong was still ahead. Republicans around the country seemed gleeful at the possibility of the party nominating her and how they would then be able to ask every Democrat running for office around the country what they thought of Francesca Hong and her views on Thanksgiving. There was talk that Tony Evers move wound up having no real effect. Obviously, nobody might have been rooting for her more than Tom Tiffany, the soon to be Republican nominee for Governor.

 

When primary day rolled around though, Hong underperformed the polls, the same sort of thing that had just happened in neighboring Michigan, when a controversial left-wing candidate managed to win a Senate nomination, but by far less than many expected. All night, political junkies watched the numbers roll in between Hong and Crowley, Both candidates cut into each others home area bases but Crowley was able to win the African-American vote as well as the working class white vote. The socialist Hong's support leaned heavily young and white, and often affluent. By Wednesday morning, Crowley had pulled off at least a modest upset, defeating Hong 40-39. Kelda Roys, who had also finished third in the 2018 Gubernatorial primary, may very well have hurt her fellow liberal Madisonian the victory with her nearly eight percent of the vote. Many Democrats breathed a huge sigh of relief. Republicans, not so much. The party quickly came together behind their new nominee and Crowley offered praise for Hong. These incidents of left-wing Democrats performing worse at the ballot boxes that polls were predicting, at least in the primaries, will be something to keep an eye on this November, but that might mostly only really apply to the Michigan Senate race.

 

In Wisconsin, the nominees for Governor run on a ticket with the candidates who win primaries for Lt. Governor. For Republicans, David Varnam, the former Mayor of Lancaster took 55 percent to defeat the 44 percent received for Will Martin, an African-American former state Workforce Development official who had been officially endorsed by the party. In 2022, both of those candidates had finished near the back of the pack of a crowded Republican Lt. Governor field, but Martin had nine percent then while Varman had five. This time Varnam got the upper hand and received the nomination. He does not seem to be really be featured on Tom Tiffany's campaign website.

 

Democrats have a more established Lt. Governor nominee to run for Crowley. Running unopposed, the party chose Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, She had been appointed to that post by Evers in early 2023 after the recently reelected Democrat incumbent resigned after 40 years in that job. Godlewski had won statewide in 2018 in a close race for State Treasurer. In 2022, she ran for the U.S. Senate, but was one of the candidates who dropped out late in favor of Mandela Barnes. With her name on the ballot, she took eight percent and finished third. For this cycle, Godlewski decided to run for Lt. Governor rather than competing in a crowded field for Governor, although there would have certainly been a time when many in the party would have wanted to turn to her as their preferred candidate for the top job.

 

Without Hong in the general election, this contest does not seem to have as much juice (or perhaps gravy.) The polls show a pretty close contest, which is nothing new to Wisconsin politics, but Crowley seems to have a slight lead. While Trump won Wisconsin in 2024, it is widely assumed that Democrats are quite motivated to vote against him in these midterms, and that will be a problem for Tiffany, a staunch Trump ally, who is not exactly a dynamic figure on the campaign trail. This is also is not proving to be a good cycle for sitting members of the U.S. House who are running for higher office.  It must be mentioned though that Tiffany recently had a very harrowing experience that he thankfully survived. Last month, while returning from a political event in a small airplane, he crashed into Lake Wausau. The 68 year old candidate and his 73 year old pilot had to swim over 100 feet to shore. The crash was attributed to pilot error. The Congressman received stitches for a cut over his eye but mostly escaped unscathed and while no politician would ever want something to happen, did of course receive some good publicity from this ordeal.

 

I expect this race to finish with a single digit margin, but it will wind up being a major upset, and another huge Wisconsin polling error, if David Crowley is not elected Governor. If the young African-American politician becomes the Governor of Wisconsin, it is hard to argue that he will not be someone looked at as a potential Vice Presidential candidate for his party in 2028. 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

20 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

15 R (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

26 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

23 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 5 Leans, 2 Tossup)