Rhode Island Governor- Race of the Day

38 Days Until Election Day

Rhode Island Governor

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

Rhode Island has long been considered one of the most Democrat states in the Union, but it was unable to win the Governorship at the ballot box between 1994 and 2010. Since the 2014 election though, the office has been controlled by that party, although with lots of internal divisions. A primary earlier this month resulted in the first incumbent Governor losing a nomination race since 2018 and the first elected one to do so since 2014. Still though, there is probably not going to be much impact on the general election.

 

Democrat Dan McKee, a businessman, had been around local politics for some time. He was twice elected Lt. Governor of Rhode Island, and was considered a somewhat moderate member of his party. Then, in 2021, Governor Gina Raimondo, also somewhat moderate by New England standards, left to become Joe Biden's Secretary of Commerce. McKee became Governor, without much of a relationship with Raimondo at all, even though they were of the same political party.

Once in the top office, McKee seemed to have a hard time finding his footing and faced a five way primary in 2022. He narrowly won by a 33-30 margin over former CVS executive Helena Buonanno Foulkes. She had a grandfather and an uncle who were prominent Senators from Connecticut, and she received some political support from old guard Democrats because of that connection. In that race, she finished narrowly ahead of Rhode Island's female Secretary of State, and well ahead of a male who had also been Secretary of State. Both of them had run to the left. Nonetheless, McKee had won with a plurality and much of the support of organized labor. In the general election, the acting Governor secured four years by beating a little known Republican, businesswoman and former Illinois Gubernatorial aide Ashley Kalus 58-39.

 

Local issues have consistently kept McKee under water politically at home. One has to question why he made the decision to seek a second full term at age 75, but it did not work out well for him. Foulkes was back for a rematch, this time with the opposition field to herself and she prevailed over the incumbent by a 25 point margin. In the primary, McKee had tried to place some blame on Foulkes for the opioid epidemic considering her private sector association with the CVS pharmacy, one of the state's largest employees. The voters were not buying it though and after his loss, the Governor endorsed his former opponent and called on the party to unite behind Foulkes.

 

On the Republican side, Kalus considered but passed on an other run for Governor. She did however say that Foulkes would be even worse than McKee and in her own party endorsed former actress and model Elaine Pulino. That candidate ran on MAGA support and themes but the state party endorsed a different candidate in Aaron Guckian who had once held the glamorous job of Chair of the Warwick Sewer Authority. A trade association executive and former Gubernatorial aide, Guckian had lost 51-43 as his party's nominee for Lt. Governor in 2022. This month, he defeated Pulino in the primary 51-49, which I think might have been a good deal closer than many expected. A recount did not change the results. Guckian has deliberately put distance between himself and Donald Trump during his political career. He is apparently a tall man and is telling voters to "think big."

 

Independents have been known to run statewide in Rhode Island as well. There will be three of them on the ballot including businessman Ken Block who had founded the Moderate Party in the state and has run under its banner. In 2010, he received six percent in a Gubernatorial general election and then lost a 2014 Republican primary for the office. Now, he is back running for Governor as an Independent again, despite the fact that the current nominee is considered mainly a moderate also.

 

Some polls actually show that Block, who perhaps has higher name recognition than Guckian, might possibly finish in second place this year. Both are well behind Foulkes though, who clearly has to be considered a strong frontrunner in a state like Rhode Island. The Democrat though does not appear to be cracking 50 percent yet, which indicates that a lot of voters, including Democrats who had supported McKee might not be totally sold on her and are willing to at least be considering other non-MAGA options.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

19 D (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

10 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

25 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 3 Tossup)

18 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)