2009 U.S. House Special Elections
While it seems almost certain that there will be at least one more of these in 2009, here are a list of the first three special elections for the U.S. Congress and my predictions. The New York one, which is the only truly competitive contest will be voted on this Tuesday and will receive much national attention. All of these vacancies have come about because of folks leaving their elected jobs to join the Obama Administration.
Some districts are solidly dominated by one party which is why the election this May in California and a week from Tuesday in Chicago will be obvious predictions. The New York one though will be a real barnburner. It has been a Republican district traditionally, but one in which Democrats have done well in recent years. Special elections are typically very low turnout though and with so much dependent on voter turnout, those close ones can always be very difficult to predict.
California
32. Vacant upon resignation of Hilda Solis- D
Safe D
Illinois
5. Vacant upon resignation of Rahm Emanuel- D
Safe D
New York
20. Vacant upon resignation of Kirsten Gillibrand-D
Tossup (R)
posted by Corey @ Saturday, March 28, 2009
5 comments
5 Comments:
My NY-20 prediction:
Tedisco(R)-51%
Murphy(D)-49%
Panic at the Tedisco. His campaign is claiming the race is within the margin of error but won't say whether he is ahead or not ... after blowing a 20 point lead. Momentum is not with Tedisco ... and he cannot even vote for himself on Tuesday.
We'd have been better off with John Faso as our candidate. I fully expect Tedisco to win, though. We would have been losing by a bigger margin if State Legislator Tim Gordon or former State Health Commissioner Ronald Kim was chosen for the Democratic nod.
Hey Corey and Gomer, the Haloscan CRASHED again.
Ron needs to figure out what's going here because I just got back on half an hour ago and it said "invalid user" when I tried to post.
Either candidate can win NY 20, though if Jimmy The Disco wins, it will probably be because of legacy GOP tradition in upstate NY more than his current campaign efforts.
Michelle Bachmann raising money for him? How many people in NY 20know or care who she is, and how did she become such a GOP star? Robocalls from Pat Boone? Might have been effective in 1959.
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