Saturday, January 16, 2021

2020 Elections Predictions Review - Part I

It is hard to believe that it has been over two months since the Election. So much has happened of course and the beginning of 2021 has already seen some of the craziest and most improbable events in American history. In a few days, a new President will be sworn in, amid a pandemic, and a very sparse audience. Still, the military is on high alert for potential terrorist interruptions, not so much from any foreign power or international criminal enterprise, but from seditious elements that continue to support the defeated candidate. Hopefully, everything will go smoothly and our nation can begin to heal, physically and emotionally.

Needless to say, Donald Trump has yet to formally concede the 2020 election despite the fact that he is the first elected President to lose election in a truly one-on-one race since Herbert Hoover in 1928. Democrats also control the House, albeit by a somewhat surprising smaller margin, and very recently won the Senate, when as I predicted, the chaos surrounding Trump allowed the party to take away what should have been two secure Senate seats from Republicans. January 6, 2021 is a day that will live in shame for Donald Trump and his supporters. No, not all the 74 million plus that did vote for him, but those who took part in a treasonous mob that ascended on the Capitol during the official certification of the Electoral Vote, attempting to interrupt it. This violent mob even had designs on killing the Vice President of the United States, the very candidate they had been supporting for reelection to the second highest office in the land. This event, and the horrifically lacking initial response from Trump saw him impeached, for the second time, even as he is on his way out the door. Joe Biden will be sworn in at noon on January 20th, and instead of the traditional luncheon, the Senate, may instead immediately start the first ever Impeachment Trial of an ex-President, whom instead of taking part in the ceremony, as every modern President has, will have departed for Florida, amid what might be a garish military salute that he insists for himself.

Even with the results from the Georgia runoffs now final, I still wish I could offer complete "results", but there is still one undecided House race from New York that ridiculously is not called due to ballot irreleguarites and we are told it might be months before a winner is declared. I will probably be doing a post in the days ahead regarding all my House predictions, and dealing with that one seat in the interim.

In a brief way though, as I have always done, let us take a look at how I did with my predictions this past cycle. As always, I will itemize and try my best to explain what I got wrong.


Donald Trump won everything I predicted and Joe Biden won most, but not all. All that I was wrong on were what I characterized as Tossups, so all things considered, I think I did pretty well.

Nonetheless, Trump did win Florida, North Carolina, and the Second District of Maine, meaning that my Biden Electoral Prediction looked a bit off.

One must salute Florida Republicans for being able to get a vote better than Republicans in most swing states, and there are some interesting things to look at in terms of a stronger than expected showing for Trump among South Florida Latinos (socialism had so much to do with it.) Also. the Florida GOP is far more comfortable with pushing Vote by Mail as they  have been for many cycles now, and utilized that to their benefit, instead of what was seen in other states, where Trump talked his people out of voting absentee and likely cost himself another term for it.

The split Electoral Vote in Maine is quirky, and I have twice in a row been wrong about it. Downscale rural votes continued to show strong support for Trump.

The incumbent also did win North Carolina, albeit narrowly. It must be of small comfort though. The end result was Trump losing reelection by the same Electoral College margin that he won last time, and bragged about (falsely) as having been an "historic landslide."


I was clear about the fact that there was not much "action" on this front in 2020, but for the first time ever I did have a perfect score in predicting Governor elections.

2020 Results: 11-0 (100%)

Past cycles-
2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%)
2018: 35-1 (97%)

Tomorrow, I will plan to a post about the U.S. Senate races and try to explain how I got two races wrong, including one I somehow was fooled into ranking as "Leans D."


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