Monday, October 15, 2018

2018 Gubernatorial Predictions- Updated

22 Days Until Election Day

All current Governors: 16 D, 1 I, 33 R 

Alabama- Safe R
Alaska- Likely R - change from Tossup (R)
Arizona- Likely R- change from Leans R
Arkansas- Safe R
California- Safe D
Colorado- Leans D- change from Tossup (D)
Connecticut- Likely D- change from Tossup (D)
Florida- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
Georgia- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Hawai'i- Safe D
Idaho- Likely R
Illinois- Likely D
Iowa- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Kansas- Tossup (D)
Maine- Leans D
Maryland- Safe R- change from Likely R
Massachusetts- Safe R- change from Likely R
Michigan- Leans D
Minnesota- Likely D- change from Leans D
Nebraska- Likely R
Nevada- Tossup (R)
New Hampshire- Likely R
New Mexico- Likely D- change from Leans D
New York- Safe D- change from Likely D
Ohio- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Oklahoma- Leans R
Oregon- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
Pennsylvania- Likely D
Rhode Island- Likely D- change from Leans D
South Carolina- Likely R
South Dakota- Leans R
Tennessee- Likely R
Texas- Safe R- change from Likely R
Vermont- Likely R
Wisconsin- Leans D
Wyoming- Safe R

23 D (7 holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)
27 R (7 holdovers, 6 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 7
Republican net loss of 6


At 5:38 PM, Blogger Steve Boudreaux said...

Corey: My BOLD Predictions:

GOP picks-up AK: because of the stupidity of former United States Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) in splitting the vote, leading to Dunleavy getting into the AK Governor's Mansion easily.

Dems pick-up the following:
1.) MI (OPEN).

2.) NM (OPEN)

3.) OH (OPEN): Cordray will get dragged across the finish line by United States Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

4.) IL: Big question is whether Pritzker will make it to 2020 assuming he doesn't get indicted by the Feds.

5.) ME (OPEN)

6.) KS (OPEN): barring something crazy.

1.) FL (OPEN): Will the Bradley Effect doom Gillum & can he overcome the backlash against Big City Mayors ?

2.) OK (OPEN): Edmondson has 4 statewide election victories in his belt as OK State AG & comes from a political dynasty, let's see if he can pull this off.

3.) OR: This is going down to the wire.

4.) NV (OPEN): I need to see strong evidence & trends that the NV Dems can finally break the long drought in taking back the NV Governor's Mansion.


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