Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Presidential Power Rankings # 46

November 14, 2007


1. Hillary Clinton (1)
2. Barack Obama (2)
3. John Edwards (3)
4. Chris Dodd (5)
5. Bill Richardson (4)
6. Joe Biden (6)
7. Al Gore (7)
8. Dennis Kucinich (8)
9. Mike Gravel (9)

No changes this week, but the most intriguing factor here from my perspective continues to be the battle between Obama and Edwards to emerge as the "anti-Hillary." While Obama has ratcheted up the rhetoric in recent weeks, Edwards is still being far more aggressive on that front and has even gone so far as to play it coy as to whether or not he could support Clinton as the eventual nominee. The fact that the anti-Clinton vote is splintered between the two men may work to her benefit, while others believe that the Edwards doggedness will ultimately soften her up enough to help Obama, who may be able to afford to stay somewhat more above the fray.

As of now, Obama remains in a better position to capitalize than Edwards, and both will be looking towards knocking off the frontrunner in Iowa. If that happens, the race will suddenly get very interesting, but for now, Hillary remains far in front, despite having perhaps the toughest two weeks in her political career.

Some others may wonder as to why I have Dodd ranked higher than Richardson and Biden in the second tier. Poll numbers, even in Iowa and New Hampshire, certainly do not back up any sort of boomlet for Dodd, but, at least for now, I am going to keep him ranked where he is, because he might have some more "blogger" support than the other other longshots, and Richardson seems to be actively campaigning to be Vice President, instead of President. But this remains a three person race, at best, anyway.


1. Mitt Romney (1)
2. Rudy Giuliani (2)
3. Mike Huckabee (4)
4. John McCain (5)
5. Fred Thompson (3)
6. Ron Paul (6)
7. Tom Tancredo (7)
8. Alan Keyes (8)
9. Duncan Hunter (9)
10. John Cox (10)

A noteworthy shakup here, as I have moved Mike Huckabee, who is in many ways, the "flavor of the month", particularly on behalf of the mainstream media, all the way up to third, which also has me moving McCain up a spot to fourth, while moving the fledgling campaign of Fred Thompson, all the way down to number five.

The most recent batch of polls out of Iowa, show that Huckabee has some serious momentum and has moved up to second place. Whether Huckabee might actually be able to challenge Romney for the lead in Iowa, remains to be seen, but the Hawkeye State is clearly where Huckabee will look to gain notice.

At the same time, Thompson, whom despite have just been endorsed by the National Right to Life Committee has taken some substantial hits in both national polls, as well as those in Iowa, where he had been strong, and New Hampshire, where he never was. Additionally, Thompson appears to now be no better than third place in South Carolina, a state he would absolutely have to win.

As for McCain, a campaign that was once written off for dead has rebounded to the extent, where he can point to the fact that he seems to run slightly better against Hillary Clinton in early general election polls than his competitors, as well as the fact that he is probably in substantially better shape Thompson in New Hampshire. In other states as well, any movement by Huckabee might hurt Thompson the most, and that works to the benefit of the other candidates.

Giuliani, who remains ahead in national polls, and appears to be a somewhat distant second in New Hampshire, also shows some strength in some other early states, many with a large amount of delagates. However, Giuliani might have to try to limit the damage in Iowa, where anything worse than a third place finish might be hard to recover from. It remains to be seen how such developments as the Bernie Kerik indictment and the Pat Robertson endorsement will have on his campaign.


At 10:50 AM, Blogger ryanshaunkelly said...

Gravel kucinich paul nader perot carter [conyers?rangel?] united for truth elicit fear smear blacklist.

Honesty compassion intelligence guts.

No more extortion blackmail bribery division.
Divided we fall.

The people know too much,
democracy rising democracy now.
Rage against the machine.

At 1:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Hillary remains far in front, despite having perhaps the toughest two weeks in her political career."

I guess her time as first lady doesn't count as a political career, then? Because I doubt the last two weeks can be considered tougher than Whitewater, the collapse of health care reform, or the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

In light of the fact that you are constantly saying that "Hillary has been a part of every Washington battle since 1993" or something similar, and therefore in your view cannot deliver the change that voters want, doesn't that conflict with what you wrote in this week's post?

At 2:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

toughest week as a candidate or duly elected office holder.

At 5:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the Huckster catches and overtakes Romney in Iowa, Romney is finished.


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