Corey's Political Prognostications

Race for the White House

2012-02-11T19:28:00.002-06:00

I had a lot more to say about the week in politics, that I was planning to quickly write a short while ago, but hearing the news about the death of Whitney Houston and wanting to listen to the coverage is distracting me a bit. So, this may be a bit truncated.

For political junkies and for the media, where a long Presidential primary contest is economically lucrative from a business standpoint, every little up and down of the 2012 GOP campaign gets amplified, and some events are given far more significance than maybe they really deserve.

However, perception moves news cycles in the age we live in. With that in mind, Mitt Romney went from having a great day last Saturday, to an absolutely horrible one on Tuesday, and now a very good one today. With the next contests in Arizona and Michigan not for another 17 days, it is a very positive thing for Romney and his supporters such as myself to enter this mini-news lull on a high note.

This past Saturday, as expected, Romney rolled up a big number in the state anchored by Las Vegas, taking Nevada with a majority of the vote. After Romney delivered a strong victory speech, second place finisher Newt Gingrich took the podium at a press conference, in which news reports stated he would begin to embark on a new positive angle to his campaign. It was anything but, as Gingrich unloaded on Romney and wallowed publicly in campaign despair. Again, I have to think psychological professionals could write books analyzing Gingrich's life and performance on the campaign trail. The media noted about how ill advised the Gingrich event and tone was and indeed it's been a horrible week for the candidate who won a large victory in South Carolina just three weeks ago.

Very quickly, I just want to make note about how openly Gingrich ascribed Romney's victory to the fact that so many Mormons live in Nevada. Besides the fact that Romney still would have won the state, according to entrance polls if not a single Mormon had voted, I find it amazing that Mormons can be talked about as a voting bloc in a way that would be completely politically damaging for someone to talk publicly about Jews, African-Americans or any other group.

I really want to hear more about Whitney Houston, who apparently died at a pre-Grammys event at the Beverly Hilton, so I will soldier on and try to finish this...

Last Saturday, before the Nevada results, I predicted that Santorum would soon surpass Gingrich as the "anti-Romney" alternative and that certainly happened as the former Pennsylvania Senator revived his campaign by sweeping non-binding, small turnout contests on Tuesday nights, winning by very large margins in Missouri (where Gingrich was not on the ballot and where a caucus will select delegates in March, in Minnesota, where Romney won four years ago, but finished a distant third behind Ron Paul this year, and in Colorado, by a very narrow margin which was supposed to be a solid Romney state.

In my view, the biggest story of the night was the way Gingrich had fallen at the expense of Santorum and how ultimately it could be a positive development for Romney, due to two continuing and competing anti-Romney factions, but the media all but declared the night a disaster for the supposed frontrunner from Massachusetts.

Due to the breaking Whitney Houston news, I will save for another week, a discussion as to what might happen if either Gingrich or Santorum dropped out of the race and what it could mean for the Romney campaign. As of now though, they both seem prepared to stay in, and Romney is probably in the somewhat ironic position of wanting to see Gingrich remain viable in the race, despite the poisonous rhetoric being thrown against him from that direction.

After the Santorum sweep, which I believe was aided by the votes of Evangelical Christians, coming on the heels of all the news of recent days involving the Obama Administration, the Catholic Church, same sex marriage, and contraception coverage mandates, the candidate has begun to surge in national and state polls. I think much of this is due to the fact that he has yet to experience any real vetting or much in the way of negative ads against him. I consider Santorum's support to be quite soft and I think he does not seem financially or organizationally in a good position to sustain a long national campaign.

Again, because of the news, I will save some more general election related aspects involving the Obama Administration and the news it has made this past week, especially what it could mean for the Catholic vote. I definitely have strong opinions on the issue, but for now, the GOP nomination contest is more pertinent.

So, Mitt Romney was once again in the position of needing a rebound, for the reason of getting the media to stop talking about how much trouble he was in alone, and he came to the annual CPAC Conference in Washington D.C. , not expected to make much of a splash.

On Friday, Romney gave a fairly well received performance, in which he curiously referred to himself as a "severe conservative" before the gathering, but the real surprising news came on Saturday, when he won the straw poll of the participants (who tend to skew quite young) by a 38-31 percent margin over Rick Santorum.

The news got even better for Romney later today when he was declared the winner of the caucus in Maine. Going in to the day, many believed Ron Paul would achieve his first victory there, but he finished nearly 200 votes behind Romney. A solid showing to be sure for Paul, who worked the state hard, but I believe if he could not win there, he is not going to win anywhere this year.

And that is where we now are. I think it is probably wise not to read too much into Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado which were bad for my candidate, or CPAC and Maine which were good, but all in all, Romney fans like myself can breathe a sigh of relief now today. He is still the frontrunner and can hopefully pull off a great showing in Arizona and his native state of Michigan.

I will have to cut it off here, despite having much more I could say about politics. What a great talent Whitney Houston was. I remember her first album so well from when I was a young child and I was a huge fan at that time. What a shame she struggled with all those demons for the past decade plus.

I believe the children are our future.... I believe in Mitt Romney and I believe in America....

Super Bowl XLVI Result

2012-02-10T18:34:00.002-06:00

From Indianapolis:

New York Giants (12-7) vs. New England Patriots (15-3) Loss 1

Super Bowl Result 0-1 (o%)
Overall Final Results: 118-149 (44%)

Patriots finish 15-4
Giants win Championship at 13-7

Race for the White House

2012-02-04T18:19:00.002-06:00

At this stage of the game, I would need to do daily updates in order to capture every significant development of the campaign season, instead of just once a week. Mindful of that, I am likely to continue missing many details of things that probably should be covered, so if there is anything that has not been addressed, please feel free to leave a comment about it.

Currently, we are awaiting results from the Nevada Caucuses, where GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney is likely to roll up a landslide victory, which will further cement the hold he has on winning the Republican nomination.

Tuesday night saw Romney's biggest win yet, as he won the Florida primary by 14 points, marking a dramatic comeback, from where he seemed to be just 10 days earlier in South Carolina. In spite of that, the spotlight that comes with being a likely nominee for President brings about all sorts of negative attention, from the media, from somewhat desperate primary opponents, and of course from the entire opposition political party. Governor Romney received a lot of criticism for all corners for a statement he made during a television interview this week, but it remains unlikely to have any effect whatsoever on the dynamics of the primary race.

Romney is still likely to be the GOP nominee, and it will be a nomination worth having. Democrats are of course enthused on recent government reports showing the unemployment rate continuing to fall, feeling that an improved economy will boost the prospects of Barack Obama for reelection. That is certainly a fair assessment, but cases of course can be made for the fact that the economy and the job market remain far less rosy than some wish it to be. Voters who will vote on the economy will do so based on what they feel in their lives and those around them, rather than politicians' attempts to frame a narrative or what the media says. I think we are still a far way off from the American people deciding the economy is in good shape or that Obama deserves credit for some kind of turnaround.

Of course, a lot can happen in nine months, and the economy will get much focus in the general election and internationally, there seem to be a lot of international matters that deserve more attention and could play a major part of the national campaign, especially as it relates to current and potential events in Iran and Syria.

In the meanwhile though, we have now reached the month of February, which is expected to be very good for Mitt Romney, starting tonight in Nevada, and then on Tuesday in some other states he is expected to win. We can take a look next week at the states that will vote this coming Tuesday, as well as final results from Maine, where the Ron Paul campaign seems to be making their biggest push for an upset victory.

Nationally and in the eyes of the media, Romney's chief GOP opponent continues to be Newt Gingrich, who needless to say has had a very bad two weeks. Running far behind in the final days of the Florida race, his campaign released a robocall to the state in which Romney was falsely accused of denying Kosher food to Holocaust victims in nursing homes. I think that was probably one of the most sleazy things ever to be said publicly in a GOP primary race. It is of course an example of how Gingrich continues to flail and wallow in self-pity on the campaign trail. I certainly was not surprised when he failed to call Mitt Romney to congratulate him after Florida, which would be typical campaign protocol, or to make note of his victory while on stage to his supporters. In those remarks, Gingrich spoke as if his election as President was a sure thing and pledged his "life, fortune, and sacred honor" to the effort. Gingrich in this campaign continues to remind me of Charlie Sheen in his meglomania.

Gingrich has a Las Vegas press conference scheduled for after the results are announced tonight, leading some to speculate that maybe he has had enough, but Gingrich has stated he will stay in the race until the convention. It might be close tonight for second place between Gingrich and Ron Paul in the Silver State. Some believe the former Speaker could potentially wait out February and win some southern states during March's Super Tuesday, but it seems more to me like his campaign is quickly running out of money and I think Rick Santorum will surpass Gingrich as the "conservative alternative to Romney" before too much longer.

One of the more intriguing developments of the week involved a former potential Republican candidate, who at least is thankfully now confirmed to not be planning a third party effort. Businessman and celebrity Donald Trump had decided to make an endorsement of a Presidential candidate in Las Vegas and media reports indicated that Newt Gingrich would be the one to get the nod. Gingrich is reported to have happily been telling this news to his staff on Wednesday night. However, as Thursday unfolded, for whatever reason, those reports turned out to be inaccurate as Mitt Romney was the one to receive the endorsement.

The two businessmen appeared together in a flash media appearance as Trump strongly endorsed Romney and the candidate thanked him, while also appearing anxious to leave the scene as soon as possible. I could not blame him for that, but I do not think it would have been smart politics to explicitly reject Trump's endorsement and it might help a bit with "very conservative" voters who like Trump's tough talking rhetoric. Of course, the no third party run thing was the most important aspect of it all.

The endorsement press conference was perhaps well timed as well though to change the previous day's news cycle in which Romney fell victim to a self-inflicted political gaffe while speaking Wednesday morning in an CNN interview. Romney was not the first nor will be the last candidate to misspeak, especially when they are likely heavily sleep deprieved, as I expected was the case here.

During the interview, Romney stated that his campaign was not focusing on the very poor or the very rich but on the "90-95 percent" of Americans who were suffering the most. It was clearly an inartful way to express a point but the full context of what Romney was saying in about 15 seconds was clear and would not be considered controversial. However, it is very easy for political opponents to take four seconds of a candidate saying something like "I don't care about the very poor" and using it out of context to paint an image of an out of touch wealthy person, which of course puts aside the fact that he also said "I don't care about the very rich" in the same sentence.

Romney was attacked by the left for insensitivity towards the poor, despite the fact that he said he would protect a safety net for them, and from the right for perhaps even believing in the safety net concept at all. I certainly do believe that is behooves conservatism to care about the poor and wanting to see them move from a life beyond government dependency and I have no doubt that Mitt Romney believes that as well. I believe he was tired and misspoke and will be more careful in the future in how he states things. Heaven knows Barack Obama and Joe Biden have said some very dumb things over the years.

Still though, it was a political firestorm that Romney did not need on the heels of a big win in Florida. I certainly do not think it is any kind of catostrophic event for a campaign, and all indications are that it has not had much negative effect for Romney yet both in terms of having a lead over his remaining GOP opponents or continuing to be extremely competitive in national matchups against Obama.

So for supporters of Mitt Romney, such as myself, these are exciting times and compared to our mood two weeks ago tonight, we have much to be happy about. The candidate now has Secret Service protection, which of course if things work out as planned, could be a part of his daily reality for the rest of his life (decades in the future hopefully.)

Let there be no doubt though that once these primaries end, the general election will be a hard fight. The incumbent's campaign, Democrat and liberal organizations across the country, and much of the mainstream media will be pushing very hard for "four more years" and will have no reluctance to attack or distort the life, record, statements, character, and intentions of Mitt Romney to do so.

Unfortunately for Democrats, my party seems poised to nominate the one candidate who may have what it takes to withstand all that they can throw at him.

Super Bowl XLVI

2012-02-03T18:45:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 118-148 (44%)

In 2008, the New York Giants defeated the New England Patriots in the SuperBowl, ending their quest for a perfect season. While I was not a fan of either team, I was quite pleased at the time to see New England lose to their underdog opponent. After all, hadn't Boston won enough titles?

Then later that year, America, dealing with an obvious bout of temporary insanity elected Barack Obama President.

Now, we are here in 2012, and while I am still not a fan of either team, things must be made different. The mojo of 2008 must be reversed in every way possible. Thus, go Patriots! Bring another title back to Boston. The future President of the United States, would agree with me.

From Indianapolis:

New York Giants (12-7) vs. New England Patriots (15-3)

Race for the White House

2012-01-28T16:19:00.003-06:00

This past week has been another example of how dramatically events can change in Presidential politics.

Last Saturday, Newt Gingrich's sizable win the South Carolina primary was, as I expected it to be, greatly recognized in the media and the blogosphere as the kind of event that could indicate that the GOP race was headed for a very long and drawn out battle. There was talk about a broken convention and compromise nominees or late entrants (such as Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels who on Tuesday had delivered the Republican response to the State of the Union address.) Pundits also spoke as if second place finisher Mitt Romney had suffered a fatal campaign setback from which he may never recover. Much was made about how conservative votes in South Carolina and elsewhere had refused to accept him and that he amazingly ran behind Gingrich on the question of electability. Romney's problems were chalked up to supposedly poor debate performances in South Carolina and the issue of having not released his tax returns.

As an avid Romney supporter myself, I even started to contemplate scenarios in which Romney might not be able to surpass Gingrich's surge in time to win a victory in Florida (which is of course a southern state) and how he could ultimately rebound in February and win a protracted battle as the primaries moved nationwide.

However, things have stabilized (or changed, depending on how you look at it) so much that on this Saturday, we are back to the likelihood of Romney winning a solid win this coming Tuesday in the Sunshine State and the possibility of that victory making Romney the all but certain nominee. When polls in the middle of the week showed a very close race or Gingrich just slightly ahead of Romney, that might have looked like much better than expected good news for the former Speaker, but based on the buzz surrounding South Carolina and some early week polls, Romney supporters were thrilled just to look like they were still in the game. Now though, Romney looks significantly ahead.

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul will be on the ballot in Florida, but as the state is allocating delegates on a winner take all system, neither of them have much anticipation for a first place finish and have already started to think ahead, mostly to caucus states. In South Carolina, Santorum finished several points ahead of Paul. In Florida, the former Pennsylvania Senator had a decent week as far as debates were concerned and might have seen some supporters switch to him from Gingrich as the "anti-Romney alternative." That could be good news for Santorum of course, but ultimately even better news for Romney to see the opposition divide up once again.

As was the case in South Carolina, two debates this past week in Florida have had a major impact on the race. While they certainly benefited Gingrich in the Palmetto State, Romney got the best of the showdowns this week. After a debate Monday night on NBC in which the studio audience was instructed to not demonstrate their approval (even though it did happen slightly a few times), Gingrich complained about the stifling of free speech and said he might boycott any debates that did not allow applause. Of course, that would have to include what the Commission on Presidential Debates has planned for the general election.

A Thursday night debate on CNN did allow applause, but Gingrich found himself on the short end of the stick in that regard, as the night's big moments went to Romney, who forcefully took on his opponent at every turn, leading Gingrich to basically call for a truce during the debate because I believe he realized how badly Romney was cleaning his clock. The next day, the campaign which demanded that people be allowed to applaud, shamelessly claimed that the audience was stacked against them.

I could go on and on about how thrilled I am that this week has unfolded the way that it did. I was still generally confident but quite frustrated by what happened in South Carolina last Saturday and the first few days of the week. I expected Romney to turn it around, but it happened quicker and more substantially than most would have imagined. I think that demonstrates strong qualities both in the candidate and his political team that will serve them well, especially in the general election. Getting the tax returns out there this week (which showed that Romney paid over 40% of his income in taxes and charitable contributions combined) was a great way to stop being on the defensive. The issue of money donated to the Mormon Church was talked about, but not obsessively by the media.

Of course, the well funded Romney campaign was also able to very much hurt Gingrich on the airwaves in Florida, especially on the issue of the money received from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As to be expected, Gingrich fought back in harsh tones against Romney both on the stump and on the air, but was quite ineffective in making the case during the debates, which of course hurt the rationale of "a great debater" that had helped Gingrich to this point. Simply put, the tables were turned from one week to the next and from one state to the next in regards to which candidate spent the bulk of their time on the defensive.

The week is also noteworthy for discussion over Gingrich's grandiose plan to colonize the Moon by the end of his second term and all sorts of revelations of how Gingrich, who incessantly cites Ronald Reagan as an inspiration was actually quite critical of the Gipper at times during the '80s. Late in the week, the heavily visited Drudge Report website seemed to be on an all out mission to harm Gingrich and his campaign (and others such as Sarah Palin) has complained about a coordinated effort to take him down. There may never be proof of that, but there is believed to be ties between Drudge and Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades. If so, the Romney campaign quite effectively hurt their current chief opponent this week.

Gingrich is attempting to fight back against Romney by what I consider to be pretty trivial things such as taking a Democrat ballot to vote in a meaningless 1992 Massachusetts primary and perhaps slightly overreaching on an ad in which Gingrich referred to the "language of the ghetto", without specifically referencing Spanish, but having it be quite clear that is what he was referring to.

Just about every way Gingrich is trying to attack Romney is being used against him as Mike Huckabee is taking issue with Gingrich using clips of him attacking Romney from four years, and popular Senator Marco Rubio successfully forcing the Gingrich campaign to take down an ad in which Romney was referred to as "anti-immigrant." While Rubio has remained officially neutral (to the initial displeasure of Romney fans), his weighing in on behalf of the former Governor has done much to help and in a state with a significant number of Hispanic Republicans, the issues of ethnic politics this past week have seemed to favor Romney.

To summarize, it has been a strong week for Mitt Romney, who once again now looks poised to be the general election nominee, and after a particularly strong debate performance on Thursday, looks to many Republicans like someone who could be very tough for Obama to negatively define to the extent of a race being impossible to win.

However, Democrats are of course feeling good about watching a divisive GOP primary process unfold and I certainly cannot blame them for that. I believe the Republican Party will be able to unify itself before too long in order to take on Obama, but if I were a Democrat, I would have been doing cartwheels at the prospect of maybe getting to face Gingrich. It looks far less though today as if they will get to have that chance.

Obama, who will formally have a new Chief of Staff beginning the week, did deliver his State of the Union Address to a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday night, and as to be expected, most liberals thought it was great, especially the appeals to populism and increased taxes on the wealthy, while most Republicans disapproved of large chunks of what they considered nothing more than a "campaign speech."

If Romney takes Florida by a decent margin and rolls through the contests in February, we may have a general election informally underway quite soon in which the lines of division will look even clearer.

While Obama (surprisingly) did not make any specific mention during the address, a moving portion of the evening was the presence of Arizona Democrat Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot and nearly killed a little over a year ago. On Sunday, she had announced she would be stepping down from Congress to focus on her recovery. Every decent American, of all political stripes, has to admire her and wish her well.

Giffords may have been present in the House Chamber Tuesday night, but someone else was missing. On Monday, news came down that Republican Senator Mark Kirk (who holds Obama's former seat) had undergone surgery after suffering a major stroke while in his home state of Illinois. The Senator is expected to be away from the Capitol for some time but is expected to make a full mental recovery, while it is sadly likely that he will be left with some physical impairments.

This shocking story hit home for me even more so as I have been around Mark Kirk quite a bit for almost the past dozen years, as he was my Congressman before his 2010 Senate election. I have met and have had discussions with him on a number of occasions and have devoted much time to helping him get elected to both Houses of Congress. It is hard to believe that such a healthy and youthful looking man of 52 years old, who continued to serve in the U.S. Navy could suffer such an illness and have his life perhaps be permanently altered.

On Election Night 2010, I got to see Kirk deliver his victory speech up close and he was clearly relieved and thrilled to have won a brutal campaign and embark on a new professional chapter. His interest and expertise in foreign policy were serving the Senator quite well a year into his tenure, and I feel very bad for what he is having to face.

However, I have no doubt that the person who has fought so successfully in his life to get to where he is, including a bunch of really difficult elections, will show that same determination into taking on his recovery and returning to work for the people of Illinois. Mitt Romney, whom he endorsed not too long ago, will need him on his side, if he is President.

NFL Conference Championship Results

2012-01-27T18:07:00.001-06:00

1. Ravens (13-4) at Patriots (14-3)- Loss 1
2. Giants (11-7) at 49'ers (14-3)- Loss 2

Ravens finish 13-5
49'ers finish 14-4

Conference Championship Results: 0-2 (0%)
Overall Results: 118-148 (44%)

Race for the White House

2012-01-21T16:22:00.004-06:00

I am having a busy day today for reasons beyond my desire to follow today's South Carolina Primary, so my stream of consciousness thoughts may be somewhat less than normal today. Perhaps that is for the best, because I am a bit frustrated and flummoxed by the events of the past week, especially the attitudes of some people who claim to be my fellow conservatives. However, as Coach Ditka once said, "this too shall pass." Through the ups and downs of a Presidential campaign, and everything else, I firmly believe that the right thing will be done in 2012 and one year from today President Mitt Romney, after having been sworn in the day before, a Sunday, will ceremonially take the Oath of Office once again and embark on a mission to restore America's greatness.

A week ago, things were looking pretty good for Romney, to leave South Carolina with a solid victory, and all but a lock on the Republican Presidential nomination. This late afternoon, we are left with a different short term reality. In just a few short hours, Newt Gingrich, who played up his ties to the neighboring state of Georgia, is likely to win South Carolina after all, perhaps by a solid margin. Romney, who came in a distant fourth four years ago, is expected now to finish second, while the remaining major candidates Rick Santorum and Ron Paul battle it out to see who finishes third. A fourth place finish for Santorum could very well end his campaign while Paul will move on, regardless. In the meanwhile, former candidate Herman Cain and left-wing comedian Stephen Colbert, who plays the part of a bloviating right-wing pundit, have teamed up in a way in South Carolina that seems to matter most to the media and pop culture enthusiasts than any actual impact on the results.

The number of candidates are less than there were a week ago, which is one of the factors that has worked in Gingrich's favor. Sensing no possibility of a strong showing in South Carolina, and no ability to compete beyond, to my great surprise, news that Jon Huntsman was bowing out came on Sunday night. The next day, when a debate was going to be held that evening, he formally announced that he was supporting Mitt Romney, a distant cousin and someone with which his family has long ties, but also someone that Huntsman seemed personally embittered against during the Presidential campaign.

Thursday saw another debate and another candidate joining Huntsman in leaving the race. Texas Governor Rick Perry, who seemed on the verge of an exit the night of the Iowa results, dropped out and endorsed Gingrich. While many of Perry's political establishment supporters and financial contributors are said to be likely to prefer Romney, whatever support he had among Evangelicals and Tea Party activists seemed more likely to pass to Gingrich.

There was some other news that was made on Thursday morning. While Presidential politics often moves at the speed of light, and the campaign had moved on to other states, official results certified in Iowa seemed to contradict the outcome we all thought had been established; that of an eight vote Mitt Romney victory.

While the party is officially calling it a tie, the certified results placed Rick Santorum in front by a less than 35 votes. Suddenly, there was a new huge talking point for Santorum, one for the media to use to harp on Romney and try to continue the premise of a nomination "horse race" and something that will be a matter of great confusion to historians and political junkies for decades.

While the Romney campaign appeared content to publicly recognize a Santorum win from early in the month after all, the truth is far more complicated. Eight precincts of the state, where unofficial results gave an edge to Romney, allowing him to have the extremely narrow statewide win, are simply not going to be counted, because of reporting technicalities. Everybody who cast a vote in those eight precincts, regardless of who they voted for, simply will not be counted. If all the votes from January 3 were counted, it is likely still that Romney would have finished in first. While he initially got all the positive headlines of an Iowa win, the media made much this past week about how he did not win the state after all. All of this makes the Iowa Republican Party and the entire caucus process look very bad and if Santorum is recognized in the history books as the winner, it ought to come with a huge asterisk.

In a way, the Romney campaign probably felt somewhat luck at the time that Santorum got those headlines, as his fledgling campaign, despite having received some influential endorsements, could have capitalized with that positive news to gain support at the expense of Gingrich, and to the ultimate benefit in today's results to Romney.

However, all polls seem to show that after all the events of this week, including a somewhat endorsement by Sarah Palin, who expressed a desire to not see the GOP primary fun end, Newt Gingrich has been surging in Georgia, and while Romney has not necessarily lost a ton of support, he is expected to suffer a setback tonight in the Palmetto State. I wish this were not the case, but I think it will be.

All front-runners, especially Republicans, usually do stumble in an early contest, unless your title starts with President and Vice President. That is likely to happen once again, despite the fact that for months, the conventional wisdom was that Romney could never win a big early contest in the Deep South, and despite the fact that historically, it is still extremely early in the process.

The media will go full bore tonight and for days though in talking about how the Republican race is once again "up in the air" and how Romney, who looked to be a strong front-runner in South Carolina polling not long ago had stumbled and may never recover. There will be nonsense talk of "brokered conventions" and "replacement candidates", but all of that is mostly just going to be talk that is designed to keep an interesting process going and to get as many people as possible to consume what the media have to offer.

So, after today, the Romney vs. Gingrich battle will be on as it has never been on before. In ten days, Florida will vote, and while Gingrich is likely to get a boost, Romney still has the edge there, and his campaign, and the GOP establishment will take to the airwaves and elsewhere to try to put Gingrich away, in what they hope will be the part of a permanent Campaign 2012 demise.

I do not believe this has been a good week for Republicans, but again, this is all part of the messiness of politics. I can accept the fact that others in my party may prefer a different candidate than I do, and that is what primary races are all about. However, these particular developments are a bit harder to swallow at the moment, because I simply think that Newton Leroy Gingrich is basically a scumbag.

That is not a new position for me, borne of this campaign. I have felt that about him for years now and have expressed that before.

Sure, I believe he is very intelligent, and I acknowledge the historic role he played in helping Republicans win the House in 1994 for the first time in 40 years, and I agree with him on most major issues, and needless to say I would vote for him over the miserable failure that is Barack Obama, but for the sake of the party, the country, and perhaps just basic human morality, such a publicly and privately dishonorable person must never be allowed to be the standard bearer for the greatest political party known to man. And that goes for that tramp Calista too.

Conservatives are angry these days (even me I guess). Angry about the economy, about the Obama Administration, and many other things. They are currently gravitating towards the candidate who bests feeds into that anger. Some anger is justified, but a great country and a great civilization is worth a lot more than just pure anger. Ronald Reagan was angry about a lot of things he saw as unjust, but had an optimistic positive vision. That is the vision I see in my candidate Mitt Romney, and that is the vision that will ultimately prevail, and will probably do so in a relatively short period of time this winter.

While I think Romney had two strong debates in South Carolina this week, there is no doubt that the perception is that Gingrich made a much stronger emotional connection. There has just been so much talk this week about Romney and when he will release his tax returns, and how many years they will be released for, and does he have money in the Cayman Islands, and what is his effective tax rate, that it was just hard to break through with anything else. I will say the Romney campaign needed to be and will need to be better prepared to deal with these issues moving forward, and I think they will. The Romney campaign will escalate the calls for Gingrich to release a bunch of information now as well in regards to his report to Fannie May and his past Congressional ethics rebukes.

To my great disappointment, all the anti-free market talk that has continued by Gingrich in regards to Romney's successful business career has not hurt the former Speaker. What are we conservatives thinking? When did we become combatants in the class warfare of the left?

In regards to tax returns, Romney is now saying he will release them, after his for the current year are completed in April, which is in line with when previous candidates have released theirs, and will do so for multiple years. To some, that is just not good enough, and the calls for Romney to release previous years' tax records will just intensify. Gingrich released just one year of returns on Thursday night, and said he will not release anymore. Santorum said he will not release his currently and Paul says he never will. The burden though is clearly on the "ultra-rich" Romney to go far beyond what anyone else is willing to do.

If I were to speculate on why Romney has been reluctant to give in to political pressure on the tax returns, I think it may very well have to do with the fact that he has likely given millions of dollars of his money in donations to his Mormon Church. As far as I am concerned, that is totally honorable, but a lot of Evangelicals in a state like South Carolina would feel differently about the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints and that was not something they wanted to deal with. In retrospect, maybe it would have been an easier battle to face than all this talk about tax returns.

Gingrich's week was aided mostly by his debate performances in which he expressed righteous (and manufactured) indignation against the moderators and panelists. Gingrich turned his ire on Juan Williams of Fox News on Monday night over a policy matter and on John King of CNN on Thursday night over a personal matter. Gingrich knew these tactics would work for him, and smartly played to his strengths, which earned him standing ovations from the audience, and fed into the completely false perception that Gingrich would make mincemeat of Obama in a debate.

The personal matter that Gingrich turned his advantage on Thursday night was the fact that ABC News had conducted an interview with his second wife, Marianne. It is no secret among political insiders that Gingrich had long conducted a secret affair with his current wife Calista before asking Marianne for a divorce, not long after she had been diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis. A couple years ago, the ex-Mrs. Gingrich talked to Esquire Magazine in great detail about how her husband asked her to tolerate the affair. She seemed to paint a pretty devastating at the time, and the conventional wisdom was that when she made these charges now on camera, where far more people would see them, it could sink Newt once and for all.

But alas, Gingrich managed to turn all this to his advantage and make himself appear to be the victim of the liberal media, who were trying to kill his campaign just two days before a primary. During the debate, he denied that he had asked for an open marriage, but that does not take away from the fact that he most certainly had an extra-marital affair behind his wife's back.

In my view, conservatives, especially those who claim to be religious ought to be outraged by such an egregious breach of the Ten Commandments. Not too long ago, Rick Perry said about Gingrich in a debate that a man who would cheat on his wife would cheat at other things too, but of course, Perry decided that Gingrich was acceptable to him. Sure, it is possible that Gingrich and his wife found personal salvation through religion, but that does not mean he is worthy of living in the White House, where John Adams once prayed "may none but honest and wise men ever rule under this roof." Historically, we know that prayer has not always been heeded, but I certainly am motivated to do what is necessary to prevent a person in my party, such as Newt Gingrich, from having a chance to ruin my party's chances of victory in a general election.

Tonight, South Carolina will speak and the media, from both the left and right will have much to say about what they say. Tomorrow, the campaign moves on to Florida and beyond.

Republicans all agree that Barack Obama's "Hope and Change" have left our country for the worse but presently, there will continue to be an intra-party battle as to how to best counter that during this election year.

In 2012, I am not interested in beating down Obama personally. Sure, I do not particularly care for him, but I am far less interested in witnessing months and months of my party's new leader calling him names, appealing to people's fears, or just trying to score rhetorical points.

There is no doubt that the general election campaign is going to be quite heated and divisive to the country, but I would rather work to support a candidate and an eventual President, who offers optimism and his own version of hope and change. We are right on the issues, and on the issues we must fight, but America will also respond to a candidate who they can actually like as a person and think will make them proud as President.

The stakes are high this year and if you ask me, there is nothing that can be accomplished in a November 2012 Newt Gingrich concession speech, no matter how fiery it might be, or how fired up in anger a crowd may get, to compete with the possibility of actually winning the election, and removing Obama from office by the power of the vote.

I would rather watch a November 2012 victory speech and the only Republican who can deliver that is Mitt Romney.

NFL Conference Championship Games

2012-01-20T17:41:00.001-06:00

Overall Results: 118-146 (45%)

1. Ravens (13-4) at Patriots (14-3)
2. Giants (11-7) at 49'ers (14-3)

NFL Conference Semifinals Results

2012-01-17T18:07:00.002-06:00

No Packers championship makes the whole post-season worthwhile..

1. Saints (14-3) at 49'ers (13-3)- Loss 1
2. Broncos (9-8) at Patriots (13-3)- Loss 2
3. Texans (11-6) at Ravens (12-4)- Loss 3
4. Giants (10-7) at Packers (15-1)- Won 1

Conference Semifinal Results: 1-3 (25%)
Overall Results: 118-146 (45%)

Broncos finish 9-9
Texans finish 11-7
Saints finish 14-4
Packers finish 15-1

Race for the White House

2012-01-14T17:32:00.002-06:00

This past week saw some history as Mitt Romney became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate ever to sweep the first to contests of Iowa and New Hampshire. While the Hawkeye State Caucuses was a razor thin victory, the triumph in New Hampshire was far more overwhelming. The former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts received close to 40 percent of the vote in the multi-candidate field, with his nearest competitor 16 points behind.

Last week, I predicted Romney's opponents would go after him hard at the back to back debates over the weekend. On Saturday, they largely did not, leaving the punditry to declare Romney had escaped unscathed and unharmed, but they did go after him harder on Sunday morning, and some speculated over whether blood had been drawn or not. The actual results from New Hampshire gave little credence though to that reality.

To my great pleasure (and long-term stated anticipation), these victories have Romney on the precipice of the GOP nomination, even though the actual number of delegates elected have been very small. National polls are now showing Romney with a clear edge over his opponents with the air of inevitability steeping in. The next primary will occur a week from today when South Carolina, which has voted for the ultimate GOP nominee every cycle since 1980, and is by far the most Republican and conservative of the first three states heads to the polls. As the undisputed front-runner, Romney has at least a slight lead in all South Carolina surveys out this week, something that many (though not myself) thought would be impossible for the Mormon religion practicing, supposedly "moderate" from New England.

Indeed, if Romney wins South Carolina next Saturday, no matter how narrowly, it will become even more widely expected that he will be unable to be caught. Romney is in such good shape, where even a loss in South Carolina could quickly be countered by a solid victory in the next voting state of Florida, where polls show Romney with a huge lead.

Thus the stakes as they relate to stopping Romney are clearly high in the days before the South Carolina vote. Not a single candidate has dropped out after New Hampshire, leaving the task of one person catching the Governor even more difficult. Past primaries in South Carolina have often been down and dirty with allegations flying and rumors of dirty tricks abound.

So, while it is no surprise to see the other Republicans gunning for Romney, the way they have been doing so have to be of great surprise (and consternation) to many Republicans, even those who have been hostile to Romney. Some of the GOP also-rans this week have sounded more like people hanging around an Occupy Wall Street rally or perhaps right out of a Michael Moore "documentary."

Desperate times may call for desperate measures, but I believe the specific attacks being leveled against Romney, as distressing as they should be to any loyal Republican or believer in free enterprise, will merely backfire against those making the charges, perhaps damaging their political credibility currently, and will make it easier for some conservatives to accept Romney as the hope of the party and the nation. There could also be an unanticipated longer term benefit for the prospective GOP nominee.

Let's briefly look at the week in review for the major Republican candidates, in order of their New Hampshire finish from last to first.

6. Rick Perry-

The Texas Governor is still for now hanging his hopes on the first votes from his fellow Southerners in South Carolina. He did not seriously contest New Hampshire as his one percent of the vote share attests to.

Last week, I wondered if Perry was only staying in the race in order to somehow make himself look better to Romney by helping split the opposition vote. That is clearly not the case, as Perry has been demagogic as anyone in engaging in over the top rhetoric against Romney's business history as an executive with Bain Capital. He has accused his opponent of being a "vulture capitalist" who unethically bankrupted specific companies in South Carolina to his own profit. Even conservative figures such as Rush Limbaugh, definitely no fan of Romney these days, who had long been pushing Perry as one of his favorites, took strong issue with that line of attack from Perry and Newt Gingrich. Fittingly, Perry also saw a major fundraiser defect to the Romney campaign over the anti-Bain comments.

Perry probably knows he is losing, and is content in doing so in an ugly fashion.

5. Rick Santorum-

Just a literal handful of votes away from winning Iowa, Santorum went into New Hampshire with great momentum, but finished in single digits, this time a small amount of votes behind Newt Gingrich. The bounce never materialized as Santorum was unable to develop a strategy to set himself up as the main viable alternative to Romney.

South Carolina is a state with far more Evangelicals and social conservatives, and there seems to be a late concerted effort on the part of some of them to back the ex-Pennsylvania Senator, but as of today, he is still polling behind Gingrich and perhaps also Ron Paul in the Palmetto State.

To his credit, Santorum was one of just two candidates (Paul being the other) to congratulate Romney on his New Hampshire win, and has also refused to join most of the others in bashing Romney's successful capitalist record in private industry. However, Santorum might have missed a big opportunity to impress conservatives by not being more bold in standing up to Gingrich and Perry on those attacks. Santorum did not need to defend Romney specifically, but he probably would have gotten a lot more props on the right if he would have positioned himself as the champion of free enterprise.

4. Newt Gingrich-

While he is now considered the front-runner for second place in South Carolina, a finish that even Gingrich himself has conceded would all but assure Romney becomes the nominee, the past week, starting in the New Hampshire debates have shown the former House Speaker, an historic figure in the annals of the Republican Party, to have either been a closet leftist all these years, or as someone in piques of anger is capable of saying virtually anything.

A short while back, conservative columnist Peggy Noonan might have nailed it when she referred to Gingrich as an "angry little attack muffin." It seems quite clear that Gingrich's animosity against Romney (which I believe he would hold for any politician who would have bested him in an election) is in a near kamikaze state. Gingrich has gone all out in attacking Romney's role at Bain Capital, with his super-pac putting together a 28 minute movie to that effect. In addition to those left-wing friendly talking points against Romney, which Gingrich claims would make him unelectable in a general election, he has also gone after Mitt from the right on cultural issues like abortion, and even the fact that the man speaks French.

I do not have enough time and space here to analyze everything that has gone on in regards to the attacks against Romney this week, but in typical Newtonian fashion, Gingrich has alternated behind pulling back from the rhetoric and seeming on the verge of admitting he made a mistake to then doubling down on them. The ex-Speaker may do a bit better in South Carolina than his relatively horrible showing in New Hampshire, but suffice to say, unless Romney is one heck of a forgiving soul, Gingrich may be on the outside looking in politically in many respects for a long time.

3. Jon Huntsman-

At some level, the bronze medal in New Hampshire, a state he campaigned in above all others could be considered good news and a "ticket to ride" to future contests for the ex-Ambassador to China, who bizarrely spoke Mandarin during one portion of the debate late Saturday, it was not really too good of a result.

Huntsman, despite coming in third, came in behind Mitt Romney by a large margin, and behind Ron Paul by a few points. He needed to do better than that, and now looks to have little potential for growth in South Carolina, despite New Hampshire Primary night speculation by MSNBC about how he could run to Romney's left, and pick up support with his millionaire father finally showing faith in his son by bankrolling Super-PAC ads. Very doubtful to say the least.

As a score-keeping Romney supporter, I might also mention the ways that Huntsman has been out of bounds the past week. In a completely politically devised debate rant last Sunday morning, Huntsman took strong personal issue with Romney, whom had the night before criticized Huntsman for representing the Obama Administration's China policies in Beijing and having once called the incumbent Democrat a "remarkable leader." Huntsman took that out of context by saying that Romney was attacking him for the service itself and stealing a line from John McCain (who I neglected to mention last week endorsed his former rival Romney) putting "country first."

Later on in the week, after Romney made comments in regards to how his vision of health care policy would allow consumers to "fire" a service that did not suit their needs in favor of a better one, Huntsman made a cheap shot comment about how Romney enjoyed firing people. Obviously, he grossly took Romney's comment out of context, and said something that we can all expect to hear the Democrats use against Romney or any Republican. I would venture to guess there is no love lost between the two distant cousins.

2. Ron Paul

He is still Ron Paul and that is troubling enough for me, but I have to concede that his New Hampshire vote total was impressive. I do not think he will do nearly as well in South Carolina, where libertarianism and anti-military spending policies are not exactly in vogue.

I will also credit Paul for being the most vocal in declaring the rhetoric by Perry and Gingrich in regards to Romney's business career as being completely out of line with everything conservatives are supposed to believe in.

The threat of Ron Paul abandoning the GOP and running third party continue to haunt many Republicans, but for a variety of reasons, I have a hunch that the outgoing 76 year old Texas Congressman does not want to do so. Instead, I think he intends to stick around in the race, focus on the smaller states that will hold caucuses, and try to win as many delegates as possible.

Then, things will get tricky, as the Paul and Romney teams will probably try to negotiate a deal for Paul to have influence on the convention platform committee and perhaps at the convention itself in exchange for a full endorsement of Romney. The concept of seeing Paul's name placed into nomination in St. Petersburg or having him address the convention in prime time (or at all for that matter) might be hard to stomach for a Republican loyalist such as myself, but it might prove to be a compromise worth making in order to do what is needed to unite the forces that want to defeat Obama.

1. Mitt Romney-

I have already covered much of his week, as my candidate looks to be in very good shape of becoming his party's nominee. The victory speech he gave early Tuesday evening was as strong as he has been in this campaign and I think the message he delivered from that podium is one that has to drive fear into the hearts of the White House political operation.

Of course Romney's comments the next day of "I like being able to fire people" was clearly taken out of context by his opponents in both parties for political advantage, and I would like to think Americans are smart enough to learn the facts and take issue with those who try to deceive them, but it does show that Romney is going to have to be pretty careful in regards to off the cuff things he says. I do not know if it qualifies as a "gaffe", since Romney's full statement makes it quite clear what he was trying to say, but it does give an opening to show the arguments the left will against him, as they will paint him as a heartless millionaire who takes glee in firing workers and strapping dogs to to the tops of cars.

With all the talk about Bain Capital, Romney can expect to have to address the issues and paint a positive picture (as he has now begun to do with paid tv ads) of his job creating private sector experience, in Monday's Fox News debate and in the days that follow before Saturday's vote.

Some say that these vulnerabilities are such that indicate that Romney is the wrong candidate to take on Obama. I completely disagree. I think America will come to accept him as being the successful job creator and "turnaround" specialist that he has been throughout his entire career. The arguments used by the likes of Gingrich and Perry the past week were completely out of line for any Republican in my view, and while this was probably not their intent, those attacks during the month of January may turn out to be a general election blessing for Romney as well as something that helps him continue to win primaries.

For certain, these very same arguments and claims will be made by Democrats in the general election, and they may even choose to quote Gingrich and Perry. However, it may already be old news by then, if Romney is able to put this issue to rest successfully while the primaries are still technically on.

NFL Conference Semifinals

2012-01-13T18:19:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 117-143 (45%)

1. Saints (14-3) at 49'ers (13-3)
2. Broncos (9-8) at Patriots (13-3)
3. Texans (11-6) at Ravens (12-4)
4. Giants (10-7) at Packers (15-1)

2011-2012 College Bowl Game Results

2012-01-12T20:41:00.003-06:00

Congrats to the Northern Illinois Huskies on a second straight Bowl victory!

1. New Mexico Bowl- Loss 1
Albuquerque, NM

Temple Owls vs. Wyoming Cowboys

2. Potato Bowl- Loss 2
Boise, ID

Ohio Bobcats vs. Utah State Aggies-

3. New Orleans Bowl- Won 1
New Orleans, LA

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

4. St. Petersburg Bowl- Won 2
St. Petersburg, FL

Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

5. Poinsettia Bowl- Won 3
San Diego, CA

# 16. Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

6. Las Vegas Bowl- Won 4
Las Vegas, NV

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. #8. Boise State Broncos

7. Hawai'i Bowl- Won 5
Honolulu, HI

Nevada, Reno Wolf Pack vs. # 22. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

8. Independence Bowl- Won 6
Shreveport, LA

Missouri Tigers vs. North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels

9. Pizza Bowl- Loss 3
Detroit, MI

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Purdue Boilermakers

10. Belk Bowl- Won 7
Charlotte, NC

Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

11. Military Bowl- Loss 4
Washington, District of Columbia

Toledo Rockets vs. United States Air Force Academy Falcons

12. Holiday Bowl- Won 8
San Diego, CA

California Berkeley Golden Bears vs. Texas at Austin Longhorns

13. Sports Bowl- Loss 5
Orlando, FL

# 25. Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

14. Alamo Bowl- Won 9
San Antonio, TX

Washington Huskies vs. #15. Baylor Bears

15. Armed Forces Bowl- Won 10
Dallas, TX

Brigham Young Cougars vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

16. Pinstripe Bowl- Loss 6
New York, NY

Rutgers, State University of New Jersey Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones

17. Music City Bowl- Won 11
Nashville, TN

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

18. Insight Bowl- Won 12
Tempe, AZ

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. # 19. Oklahoma Sooners

19. Texas Bowl- Loss 7
Houston, TX

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats

20. Sun Bowl- Won 13
El Paso, TX

Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets vs. Utah Utes

21. Liberty Bowl- Loss 8
Memphis, TN

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

22. Fight Hunger Bowl- Won 14
San Francisco, CA

Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Fighting Illini vs. California, Los Angeles Bruins

23. Chick-Fil-A Bowl- Won 15
Atlanta, GA

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers

24. TicketCity Bowl- Won 16
Dallas, TX

# 20. Houston Cougars vs. # 24. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

25. Outback Bowl- Won 17
Tampa, FL

#12. Michigan State Spartans vs. # 18. Georgia Bulldogs

26. Capital One Bowl- Loss 9
Orlando, FL

#21. Nebraska-Lincoln Cornhuskers vs. # 10. South Carolina Gamecocks

27. Gator Bowl- Loss 10
Jacksonville, FL

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida Gators

28. Rose Bowl- Won 18
Pasadena, CA

#9. Wisconsin-Madison Badgers vs. #6. Oregon Ducks

29. Fiesta Bowl- Won 19
Glendale, AZ

# 4. Stanford Cardinal vs. #3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

30. Sugar Bowl- Loss 11
New Orleans, LA

#13. Michigan Wolverines vs. # 17. Virginia Polytechnic Hokies

31. Orange Bowl- Loss 12
Miami Gardens, FL

# 23. West Virginia Mountaineers vs. #14. Clemson Tigers

32. Cotton Bowl- Loss 13
Arlington, TX

#11. Kansas State Wildcats vs. #7. Arkansas Razorbacks

33. Compass Bowl- Won 20
Birmingham, AL

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

34. GoDaddy.com Bowl- Won 21
Mobile, AL

Arkansas State-Jonesboro Red Wolves vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

35. Bowl Championship- Won 22
New Orleans, LA

#2. Alabama Crimson Tide vs.#1. Louisiana State Tigers

Bowl Game Results: 22-13 (63%)

NFL Wildcard Weekend Results

2012-01-08T19:40:00.002-06:00

I guess Tebowmania is back on...

1. Bengals (9-7) at Texans (10-6)- Won 1
2. Lions (10-6) at Saints (13-3)- Won 2
3. Falcons (10-6) at Giants (9-7)- Loss 1
4. Steelers (12-4) at Broncos (8-8)- Won 3

Wildcard Results: 3-1 (75%)
Overall Results: 117-143 (45%)

Bengals finish 9-8
Lions finish 10-7
Falcons finish 10-7
Steelers finish 12-6

Race for the White House

2012-01-07T17:20:00.002-06:00

Two thousand twelve is now here, the Republican Presidential nomination battle is in full swing, and we have just gone through one the most historic and somewhat under-reported events in American political history, in which the Iowa Caucuses were won by a reported mere eight votes.

Right off the bat, let me say that it is has been a pretty good week for my candidate Mitt Romney, and things are falling into line for him just about exactly the way I have envisioned all along. Still though, the narrow winner of the contest in the Hawkeye State is now the most wanted man in politics and can expect to take rhetorical fire from all angles before the voting in New Hampshire this coming Tuesday and then next in South Carolina two weeks from today.

Mr. Cub Ernie Banks was fond of saying, "it's a beautiful day for baseball, let's play two!" The remaining Republican Presidential candidates will have their own version of a double header about to begin in just a few hours as the candidates will debate in New Hampshire first tonight on ABC (opposite an NFL playoff game on another network) and then tomorrow morning on NBC's Meet the Press. The debates that occurred four years ago in between Iowa and New Hampshire were filled with fireworks, and tonight may see more of that, as the candidates should be expected to gang up on Romney, the overwhelming national front-runner. Since most believe Romney assuredly has the New Hampshire primary wrapped up, much of what occurs in these debates may indeed be more tailored to the audience in South Carolina.

Instead of writing a novel, I just plan to use the rest of this post to briefly review the Iowa results and talk about what is on the line for these candidates going into the Granite State primary.

First, let us pay tribute to Michele Bachmann, who after finishing a very disappointing sixth place in Iowa, her native state, dropped out of the race the next day, as I speculated she would do last week. The remaining supporters of the longest lasting female GOP Presidential candidate ever are likely to migrate to the campaign of Rick Santorum at this time.

Finishing in seventh place in Iowa, where he did not campaign, with well under 1,000 total votes was Jon Huntsman, who was able to have New Hampshire to himself for much of the final days leading up to Iowa. Huntsman has a whole lot on the line in New Hampshire, where he has invested all. I would surmise that if he really should drop out if he finishes any worse than second there. However, I think he will keep going to South Carolina and maybe Florida if he finishes third or fourth. There is a very real chance though that the last "moderate" alternative to Mitt Romney will finish in fifth place, which should be fatal to his scant Presidential hopes. My hunch is that is what will happen. While Huntsman did receive the endorsement this week of the liberal Boston Globe newspaper, any effect it might have on New Hampshire Democrats or Independents who might cross over on Tuesday will be muted. Few expect Huntsman to have any chance of a victory in the state and anybody who might have genuinely been attracted to Huntsman on ideological grounds has probably gravitated to Romney by now.

Huntsman will not finish last among the major candidates on Tuesday though. That honor will go to Rick Perry. While I believe he is taking part in this weekend's debates, he has recently made the decision not to play in New Hampshire, but instead is focusing on South Carolina, the first contest in the South.

Back in the summer, Bachmann and Perry were the biggest stories to watch in Iowa, but both saw tremendously disappointing results in the state, especially for Perry, whom polls after he announced had leading the state by a wide margin. When it came time for the voting though, Perry only secured 10 percent, and his supposedly strong organization and backing by some right-wing blogs was not enough to keep late deciding conservative votes for going for other later surging candidates. There were some pretty big examples of campaign infighting and the airing of dirty laundry to be printed in a national publication before the Iowa vote.

On Tuesday, Perry made the first concession speech of his career, and in a graceful moment appeared to suggest he would be exiting the race. The next day, Perry returned to Texas to "assess" his campaign, and everyone assumed it was a done deal, only to see him tweet an announcement that it was on to South Carolina after all. Perry has really not been heard from since and I find this incredibly odd. There is absolutely no reason for a candidate to signify they are about to get out of a race unless they actually do. That speech itself had people basically write off any hopes for a Perry comeback. He is at about one percent in the large swarm of New Hampshire polls to come out this week and not much higher than that in those from South Carolina. I do not really know what to make of all this back and forth with the Governor, but it is true that his staying in the race is probably a good thing for Mitt Romney in South Carolina, as it would further divide the conservative anti-Romney vote further, as seen in Iowa. If I did not know any better, I would think a deal might have been worked out. If Perry spends these debates going after Santorum and Gingrich exclusively, that will really raise some flags.

Finishing off the Iowa medal stand was Newt Gingrich, the candidate who had a wide lead in Iowa just a few short weeks ago. The distant fourth place finish for the former Speaker was not a huge surprise by the time Tuesday had rolled around but was still indication that his campaign had suffered a major setback. In my opinion, Gingrich through his words and body language, gave one of the most ungracious concession speeches I have ever heard and his ugly conduct in the days since shed much light on a person who lacks character.

Right after the Iowa vote, the conventional wisdom was that Gingrich would stay in the race simply out of spite for Mitt Romney and to do whatever he could to bring him down. Since Gingrich has the endorsement of New Hampshire's influential conservative Union Leader newspaper, he basically had an obligation as well to stay in the race for them. However, as he falls nationally and in New Hampshire to the benefit of Rick Santorum, it has the effect of helping Romney after all.

Still, Gingrich has now gone back on his long-standing pledge to only run positive ads, by now attacking Romney, as he has been doing in some seriously over the top and increasingly personal ways. I do not think that is going to help Gingrich get anywhere. He openly talked about how he was willing to team up with Santorum in an effort to double team Romney on the campaign trail (which is basically what John McCain and Mike Huckabee did four years ag0) but Newt's well documented lack of discipline came into play as the week wound up as he was quick to break the alliance with Santorum declaring the former Pennsylvania partner the "junior partner" in their relationship both historically and at the present. Needless to say, Santorum took issue with that, and all of this is of course good news for Mitt Romney.

I think Gingrich and Santorum will have a tight battle for third place in New Hampshire, with Huntsman perhaps not that far behind. While the former Speaker may have some advantages in South Carolina that Santorum, I think he will probably finish fourth in New Hampshire, and either he will push on out of pure ego, or he will realize that he has no chance (even if just to stick it to Romney) and drop out.

Ron Paul often talks about returning the U.S. to the gold standard, but in Iowa, it was only the bronze medal standard for the Texas Congressman who finished about four percentage points behind the two at the top. This was despite the belief held by many (and seen in some early entrance polls) that Paul could actually win the Caucuses. However, I think we saw some people who might have been prepared to vote for him in Iowa change their mind at the last minute (perhaps after hearing some goofy pro-Paul speech at the caucus by some kid with a nose ring).

Paul will finish either second or third in New Hampshire on Tuesday and I still think it will be second. His true supporters remain devoted, despite a pro-Paul SuperPac running an ugly ad against Jon Huntsman this week in New Hampshire, in which the Paul opponent was attacked for things including the adoption of his Chinese daughter. Even Paul had to denounce it.

The Paul candidacy remains well organized and pretty vocal in going after Gingrich and especially Santorum as of late. Leading the charge lately is the candidate's son, freshman U.S. Senator Rand Paul from Kentucky (whom we will likely see run for President in 2016). He has done much to question the conservative bona fides of Santorum and some others, but I note with much interest that Paul and his campaign are not going too much out of their way to try to stick it to Mitt Romney.

Needless to say, the results in Iowa turned out to be about as close as you can get, and for years there will be urban legends about miscounted votes, etc., and who "really" won, but the official word is that Rick Santorum finished in second place, just eight votes behind Mitt Romney. That is a big development and a huge opportunity for Santorum, who was on nobody's radar a couple weeks ago, but still, it would have been exponentially better for him if he could have found a way to get a handful of more votes and actually get the headlines nationally of an Iowa win.

Right after Iowa, national pundits began speculating on just how much growth potential there was for Santorum in New Hampshire and beyond. Many, who might have a vested interest in keeping the nomination battle alive as much as possible, thought that Santorum's mix of social conservatism and what they viewed as a focus on blue-collar economic populism could play well i the Granite State, similar to how Pat Buchanan shocked the establishment and the front-runner with his win there in 1996.

In my view though, Gingrich and Paul being in the race are going to prevent Santorum from really surging as much as possible. To have his campaign be viable in South Carolina, he absolutely has to finish ahead of Gingrich on Tuesday, and I think, largely because of media attention and Newt's behavior, he will do so narrowly, but I think he is probably going to come in third in New Hampshire, behind Ron Paul, and that will look like backwards progress to many Republicans across the country.

Santorum has long been a champion of conservative social issues (and I admire him for much of that), and while that might have been a big asset for him in Iowa, it is likely to not be so in New Hampshire. Many controversial things said by Santorum over the years are being talked about and that is going to distract from the message he needs to present himself as the main alternative to Romney. I will say though that I think Santorum likely got a whole lot of late deciding votes in Iowa on the basis of a story that got some play the night before.

Back in 1996, the Santorums tragically lost their son hours after childbirth, and they decided to briefly bring his body home so that his young siblings would understand that they had a brother who died. Liberal media figure Alan Colmes brought this up and mocked the Santorums for the episode, though he later apologized to the Senator. This is one of those cultural issues that greatly divides people. A bunch of people will consider what they did in their grief to be absolutely bizarre, while others (and I basically include myself) think that others have no right to criticize their actions during such a horrible time in their life. I think Santorum won a lot of late deciding Evangelical votes in Iowa from those who respect what he did and were appalled by attacks against him for it. In some ways, Santorum owes Colmes a thank you card.

Four years ago, Mitt Romney spent millions of dollars in Iowa, a ton of time in the state, and at times had significant polling leads. When it was time to vote though, he received the support of 25% of caucus goers, and came in second place, nine percentage points behind the winner.

This cycle, Romney spent far less on the state in terms of money, time, and professional staff, never really had a lead in the polls, had no big name endorsements in the state, and once again received 25 percent of the vote (which has been mentioned much by his detractors). However, it was just enough for a victory on a roller coaster Caucus night where the vote total was shockingly close. After this election year ends, political junkies may be able to afford to look back in amazement on how just close eight votes really is in such a big Presidential event.

Last week, I talked about how lucky Mitt Romney had been in 2011, and his new year got off to the same start. He really did not need to win the state per expectations, but no matter how narrow, the headlines of a win and the perception of "inevitability" are his friend, at least for now. As mentioned, he is going to need a flak jacket the next few days on the trail, but is still widely expected to easily win New Hampshire, and while others will claim that whatever he does win by will not be that impressive and that it was a foregone conclusion anyway, going two for two will still be a huge deal, and will give him a boost going into the historically frontrunner- friendly South Carolina Primary.

A lot of eyes were probably opened yesterday when polls were released showing Romney maintaining a large New Hampshire lead, but more significantly, also ahead in South Carolina, some by a solid margin.

While the media and the Democrats and many on the right would prefer a longer contest, I think Romney is well on his way to wrapping this up early. First things first though, and minus a major gaffe in the debates this weekend, I think he will top 40 percent during his New Hampshire win on Tuesday and that should be enough for a solid double digit win.

Of course, another candidate will also win both Iowa and New Hampshire this month, and that is Democrat Barack Obama, who like Romney also finished a disappointing second in the Granite State four years ago. The presumed Democrat nominee is gradually getting more and more into campaign mode, and the controversial recess appointments he made this past week were very much evidence of the kind of campaign the White House will be running.

Democrats met in Iowa this Tuesday, an important swing state, in numbers extremely smaller than the Republicans and what they saw four years ago. The incumbent addressed the party faithful via a video message, which was shockingly unimpressive in terms of the visuals and professionalism of the remarks. Obviously, it would have been impossible to compete with the Republicans on the night, but the Obama video was so unimpressive, I really cannot imagine why it ever was even considered. Quite a difference from the lofty "hope and change"rhetoric which captivated many across America four years earlier to the very night.

NFL Wildcard Weekend

2012-01-05T21:45:00.002-06:00

Overall Regular Season Results: 114-142 (45%)

1. Bengals (9-7) at Texans (10-6)
2. Lions (10-6) at Saints (13-3)
3. Falcons (10-6) at Giants (9-7)
4. Steelers (12-4) at Broncos (8-8)

NFL Week 17 Results

2012-01-02T16:35:00.002-06:00

While the final game was going on, I was at the United Center watching the Bulls walk all over Memphis by 20.

1. Panthers (6-9) at Saints (12-3)- Loss 1
2. Bills (6-9) at Patriots (12-3)- Loss 2
3. Bears (7-8) at Vikings (3-12)- Won 1
4. Jets (8-7) at Dolphins (5-10)- Won 2
5. 49'ers (12-3) at Rams (2-13)- Loss 3
6. Lions (10-5) at Packers (14-1)- Loss 4
7. Redskins (5-10) at Eagles (7-8)- Loss 5
8. Colts (2-13) at Jaguars (4-11)- Loss 6
9. Titans (8-7) at Texans (10-5)- Won 3
10. Seahawks (7-8) at Cardinals (7-8)- Won 4
11. Chiefs (6-9) at Broncos (8-7)- Won 5
12. Buccaneers (4-11) at Falcons (9-6)- Loss 7
13. Ravens (11-4) at Bengals (9-6)- Loss 8
14. Steelers (11-4) at Browns (4-11)- Won 6
15. Chargers (7-8) at Raiders (8-7)- Won 7
16. Cowboys (8-7) at Giants (8-7)- Loss 9

Week 17 Results: 7-9 (44%)
Overall Regular Season Results: 114-142 (45%)

Colts finish 2-14
Rams finish 2-14
Vikings finish 3-13
Browns finish 4-12
Buccaneers finish 4-12
Jaguars finish 5-11
Redskins finish 5-11
Bills finish 6-10
Panthers finish 6-10
Dolphins finish 6-10
Chiefs finish 7-9
Seahawks finish 7-9
Cowboys finish 8-8
Jets finish 8-8
Eagles finish 8-8
Chargers finish 8-8
Raiders finish 8-8
Cardinals finish 8-8
Bears finish 8-8
Titans finish 9-7

Race for the White House 2012

2011-12-31T17:21:00.002-06:00

On the first day of 2011, I wrote that I was supporting Mitt Romney for President of the United States and that he stood a good chance of becoming the 2012 Republican nominee and ultimately the nation's 45th President.

Now, on the final day of 2011, I feel exactly the same way and am more determined than ever to see this happen and as optimistic as I was when this year began. Not everything is the same in my mind though. While the incumbent Democrat Barack Obama is basically as unpopular as he was at the beginning of the year, particularly because of continued economic struggles throughout the country, I no longer believe, as I speculated on January 1, that any Republican candidate could win the White House. This past year has proven that among all who did jump in the fray, only one can win and that candidate is Mitt Romney.

After the celebration and revelry of this weekend, we will get down to business on Tuesday evening when the Iowa Caucuses will be held. A week from now, it is likely that the GOP field will be at least somewhat changed and more greatly defined. At the moment, there are seven major contenders who will begin 2012 hoping to earn the support of the voters. Two former Governors ran in 2011 but are non-factors on the GOP side. Gary Johnson of New Mexico, as previously discussed has formally ended his Republican bid, pledging instead to seek the Libertarian nomination to appear on the November ballot. However, he also endorsed Ron Paul for the GOP nomination, but seemed to indicate he did not expect him to be nominated. Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer may still formally be running as a Republican, but has never appeared in any debate and has gotten scant media attention. He may be hoping that the independent "Americans Elect" organization does not find any higher profile person to back for a general election attempt.

While former candidate Herman Cain and non candidates like Sarah Palin will probably get some votes at the events, I will now in ascending order, make predictions and briefly discuss what is on the line for the remaining seven Republican candidates in the final days before Iowa.

7. Jon Huntsman-

The former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China is the one candidate to decide to bypass the Iowa contest, which tend to be heavily dominated by conservatives. Thus he is certain to finish dead last. Looking ahead to the First in the Nation Primary, the following week, Huntsman recently said, "Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks Presidents." Right now, he is not looking too hot in either state.

6. Michele Bachmann-

A week ago, I had a hunch that Bachmann, who has shown organizational strength in the past, as seen by her summer Straw Poll victory would regain support and potentially finish third in Iowa. The polls this week seem to show differently though, as those whom Bachmann needed have seemed to gravitate to one other candidate in particular. Perhaps this is another example of Iowa's reputation of being a difficult state for female candidates to win in.

One of the more intriguing stories of the past week involved a conservative State Senator,who was serving as Chairman of Bachmann's Hawkeye State campaign, inexplicably and suddenly leaving her campaign to publicly endorse Ron Paul. This was clearly a big blow for the Bachmann campaign, even if it means that others may find some sympathy for such an act of political betrayal. Bachmann claimed that the State Senator told her that the Paul campaign had offered him a large amount of money. Both the former Chairman and the Paul campaign denied that, which clearly means that someone is lying. A Bachmann Iowa strategist vouched for the integrity of the departed Chairman, leading him to (understandably) be fired by Bachmann. Just a mess all around.

While Michele Bachmann on Tuesday is likely to receive more votes for President than any Republican woman in history, this may indeed be her last week in the race, as she would have to look ahead instead perhaps to a Congressional reelection campaign.

5. Newt Gingrich-

The next few candidates seem to be heavily bunched together in the polls, but I think Gingrich will finish fifth, a tremendous setback for the campaign that was clearly leading Iowa polls a couple weeks ago.

Much of the week featured a story involving how Gingrich had compared his failure to qualify for the ballot in his residential state of Virginia as akin to Pearl Harbor for his campaign. That was an example of fairly typical historical bluster that the former Speaker is known for. Mitt Romney quipped that Gingrich's organizational failure is more akin to the infamous chocolate factory episode of the 1950's sitcom "I Love Lucy."

While Newt shed tears while discussing his mother at an event yesterday, it is unlikely to win him back many votes, as it might have for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire four years ago. With various candidates jockeying for one of the top three spots in Iowa, Gingrich is continuing to take hits from other campaigns.

Gingrich will probably surpass double digits on Tuesday night,but his lack of organization in the state, as compared to the opposition, will make it more difficult for him to outperform his current poll numbers. For now, Gingrich is saying that he plans to stick around until South Carolina, which he sees as his best shot, but the negative ads against him have clearly had their effect.

4. Rick Perry-

Is it possible that late breaking conservatives will rally around the Texas Governor, who months ago, also looked like a solid Iowa frontrunner? Perhaps, but the candidate is another of those who in tight competition with others looking for at least a third place finish are getting attacked. Perry seems to be spending the most money on the Iowa airwaves, but has been left with very little choice but try to take the fight directly to the surging Rick Santorum, and has attempted to do so on the issue of earmarks.

One has to wonder what position Perry would currently be in if he was able to debate worth a lick, but for now, he would probably be quite pleased with finishing fourth in Iowa (the position achieved by eventual 2008 nominee John McCain, though he did not put any effort into the state.) The Governor is likely to skip New Hampshire all together (where he is mired at about 2 percent of the vote) and focus exclusively on South Carolina as an attempt to save his campaign, after one or more of the other conservative alternatives to Mitt Romney drop out.

3. Rick Santorum-

The former Pennsylvania Senator has never led any sort of poll this year, but some believe that he is very much within striking distance for a sudden Iowa victory. I think he will finish third, although second place would definitely not surprise me.

All year, the other mainstream candidates (which would exclude Ron Paul) not named Mitt Romney have gotten their turn to be the "flavor of the month" and one by one they all fell by the wayside. Santorum never got his chance, but he seems to be surging at just the right time. It appears that once a candidate falls off, Iowans are not willing to give them a second look, but instead will look at the last one left.

A strong under the radar organization is expected to benefit Santorum this upcoming week. He has little support to speak of anywhere else in the country, but he is being backed by many of the same Evangelical Protestant activists who propelled Mike Huckabee to victory four years ago in the state. While Huckabee was a Southern Baptist ex-preacher, it is somewhat ironic that the current front-runner among Evangelicals could be a Roman Catholic from the urban Northeast. I will say that Santorum's public record on issues across the spectrum is indeed more conservative than that of Huckabee.

2. Ron Paul-

If the Iowa Caucuses are a typical event, Paul will not win and could finish well below second. If instead, his organizational support succeeds in attracting Independents and Democrats to change their registration and attend a GOP Caucus, he will probably be the winner Tuesday night.

There's not really much more to be said about the Texas Congressman. Regular Republicans tend to consider him "unacceptable" as the nominee, while most of his support is among those who probably have never voted Republican for President in a general election and would always be unlikely to do so.

The most fascinating Ron Paul related story of the week to me is that of Season One American Idol winner Kelly Clarkson taking to Twitter to endorse his candidacy. This created quite an online storm as followers of Clarkson tweeted her back incredulously citing examples of what they say of Paul being racist or homophobic. Clarkson, who backed Obama in 2008, seemed completely unaware of those allegations, but did not retract the endorsement. Her online music sales spiked suddenly, as Paul's cult-like devotees likely decided to patronize her, but I will be interested to see if there is any longer-term backlash for Clarkson's career. It was probably an endorsement she would have been wiser to keep to herself.

1. Mitt Romney-

Four years ago, I also predicted that my candidate, Mitt Romney, would win Iowa, and I was disappointed then when it did not come true. So, I am cautious in once again predicting a victory, but I think that even if he loses, the overall dynamics of the campaign this time around would make it a mere blip.

Like four years ago, the polls are showing a close race, and many of them now have Romney, who has spent far less money and far less time in the state as he did the last time, as being ahead. He has been on the airwaves this past week with a completely positive message, while the other candidates have been going after each other, instead of turning their political fire on Romney.

Romney, his family, and high profile surrogates are definitely making a late push to win the state though. They would live though with a second place showing behind Ron Paul. Anything below second would be spun by the media as a severe rebuke, though all things considered I think he could even manage to get by with a bronze medal, followed up by a quick New Hampshire victory. There seems to be a good deal of confidence in the Romney camp though, as seen by the fact he will stay in the state the night of the voting and to do the morning shows the next day before heading to New Hampshire. They will be hoping it will be a victory lap.

For the entire year, many Iowa conservatives have looked just about anywhere else they could for a Romney alternative, but as I always expected would happen, at this late date, they have gotten dead serious about electability, and have quietly settled on Romney. Some may back him in the state now primarily to try to deny a Ron Paul victory.

If there is one word that can be assigned to describe Mitt Romney's 2011, it would have to be "luck." There was definitely luck in play in regards to the candidates who did not run (such as John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, and Haley Barbour) and those who dropped out (perahps too early in the case of Tim Pawlenty) and luck in regards to being in a race against in Iowa against Ron Paul and Rick Santorum instead of those who could more conceivably give him a stronger battle nationally such as Rick Perry or Newt Gingrich.

As 2011 ends, Mitt Romney is on the precipice of capturing the GOP Presidential nomination on his second attempt. If that comes to fruition, it will take some luck and a strong campaign to defeat Barack Obama, a politician who is down, but should definitely not be considered out.

From my perspective, the year of 2011 has shown that Mitt Romney will be in line to demonstrate he has the right message and right strategy to end 2012 with the same hope with which his supporters will begin the year.

Believe in America.

NFL Week 17

2011-12-30T06:47:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 107-133 (45%)

All these games will take place on January 1. That evening, I will be at the United Center for the home opener of the Chicago Bulls, watching something more important than the pointless games below. Let's see how many I can get wrong this final week of the regular season:

1. Panthers (6-9) at Saints (12-3)
2. Bills (6-9) at Patriots (12-3)
3. Bears (7-8) at Vikings (3-12)
4. Jets (8-7) at Dolphins (5-10)
5. 49'ers (12-3) at Rams (2-13)
6. Lions (10-5) at Packers (14-1)
7. Redskins (5-10) at Eagles (7-8)
8. Colts (2-13) at Jaguars (4-11)
9. Titans (8-7) at Texans (10-5)
10. Seahawks (7-8) at Cardinals (7-8)
11. Chiefs (6-9) at Broncos (8-7)
12. Buccaneers (4-11) at Falcons (9-6)
13. Ravens (11-4) at Bengals (9-6)
14. Steelers (11-4) at Browns (4-11)
15. Chargers (7-8) at Raiders (8-7)
16. Cowboys (8-7) at Giants (8-7)

NFL Week 16 Results

2011-12-29T18:35:00.002-06:00

Ok, let's get this season over with.

At one point, things looked quite promising for the Chicago Bears. I firmly believe that had Jay Cutler not gotten injured, the Bears would have already clinched a playoff bid and would be serious contenders to win it all.

But alas, our Quarterback broke his thumb, everything went to hell, and here we are. Let's get 'em next year. In the meantime, I get to watch the Chicago Bulls and Chicago Blackhawks attempt to win championships in their sports, Theo Epstein is now running the Cubs and that will bring about a lot of change and maybe hope, at least eventually, and Mitt Romney is going to be President.

Bring 2012 on!

1. Texans (10-4) at Colts (1-13)- Loss 1
2. Raiders (7-7) at Chiefs (6-8)- Loss 2
3. Jaguars (4-10) at Titans (7-7)- Won 1
4. Dolphins (5-9) at Patriots (11-3)- Loss 3
5. Cardinals (7-7) at Bengals (8-6)- Won 2
6. Broncos (8-6) at Bills (5-9)- Won 3 (look what happened to Tebow once Perry compared himself to him)
7. Rams (2-12) at Steelers (10-4)- Won 4
8. Giants (7-7) at Jets (8-6)- Loss 4
9. Vikings (2-12) at Redskins (5-9)- Won 5
10. Buccaneers (4-10) at Panthers (5-9)- Loss 5
11. Browns (4-10) at Ravens (10-4)- Loss 6
12. Chargers (7-7) at Lions (9-5)- Loss 7
13. Eagles (6-8) at Cowboys (8-6)- Won 6
14. 49'ers (11-3) at Seahawks (7-7)- Won 7
15. Bears (7-7) at Packers (13-1)- Loss 8
16. Falcons (9-5) at Saints (11-3)- Won 8

Week 16 Results: 8-8 (50%)
Overall Results: 107-133 (45%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-12-24T18:01:00.002-06:00

"Twas the night before Christmas....

And all through the country, most Americans are presently more focused on other things beyond the contest for President, which will be kicked into a higher gear once the New Year hits.

Trying to take advantage of the media vacuum is renowned media whore Donald Trump, who took the opportunity in his native New York to switch his registration from Republican to Independent. We can be certain that Trump will spend the first several months of 2012 openly flirting with seeking the White House as an Independent and while there will be reports saying he is leaning towards doing so, of course he will eventually take a pass. Later on this week, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson will formally announce he is ending his Republican campaign to instead seem the Presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party.

Barack Obama has been able to fly to Hawai'i for the holiday after all, following a week of battling with Congressional Republicans over a two month extension of a payroll tax cut. The Capitol Hill back and forth, which ultimately concluded with Speaker John Boehner seemingly giving in to what the President wanted, has pleased Democrats and angered some Tea Party conservatives, who preferred a much longer extension. With this particular inside baseball battle over though, Republicans can avoid having a politically harmful position strapped to their backs heading into an election year, but by and large, Democrats who of course do control the White House and U.S. Senate, feel they won this round.

Of course, Obama's eventual GOP opponent is very likely to not be someone associated with the Congressional Republican leadership. This week is ending with Mitt Romney, who has never worked in Washington D.C. continuing to be viewed as the most likely nominee of his party. A Rasmussen Reports poll this week show him building on a slight Iowa lead, and if he wins there on January 3rd, it is very hard to envision a scenario in which he eventually does not win the nomination.

Romney received applause from conservatives this week for the forceful way he took issue with Vice President Joe Biden's outrageous claim that the Taliban is not the enemy of the United States "per se" and for answering a question regarding Obama's Kenyan uncle who was arrested on a DUI charge earlier this year and who is in the country illegally. While Romney did not bring this issue up, and is said to not have immediately recognized the name of the uncle, he stated that federal immigration law must be enforced and thus he would deport the illegal drunk-driving uncle of the incumbent President.

Victory in the Hawkeye Caucuses are still far from a given for Romney though, as five other candidates are pushing hard, hoping to finish in the Top Four. I believe the candidates who finish fifth and sixth (with the assumption that the non competing Jon Huntsman finishes last) will have a hard time lasting in the race and may be quick to drop out.

Based on current polls, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich appear most likely to advance, while beyond the visible radar, the organizational efforts of Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry could surprise. I consider it a very real possibility, that his once sizable polling lead aside, Gingrich's national trajectory could be one that will give him a sixth place finish in Iowa.

Having spent much of the week complaining about the negative ads against him, especially those being run by a technically unaffiliated group on behalf of Romney, Gingrich might be able to "stop the bleeding" to some extent by the XMAS week absence of the negative ads which had saturating the Iowa airwaves. He also boldly challenged Romney to a one on one debate, after the former Massachusetts Governor pointed out how heated politics can get, but the Romney campaign understandably declined the offer from an opponent who may not even be in the top two.

The ex-Speaker's campaign has some serious problems organizationally, which forced Gingrich to spend less time than expected the past week in Iowa and New Hampshire, but instead in the state where he happens to live. The Virginia primary ballot requirements are pretty strict and after having scrambling to acquire signatures for much of the week, it appears as if the campaign has fallen short of qualifying for the ballot, where the most recent polls had put Gingrich at the top. While the organizations of Romney and Paul long ago fulfilled the requirements, all other candidates, in addition to Gingrich also failed to do so, leading to a two person contest in the state.

Of course, if anybody else expects to do anything in the race, a strong showing in either Iowa or New Hampshire is crucial. While some, though not all, polls show Rick Perry gaining some ground in Iowa, he is continuing to battle gaffes and make his voice heard above the crowd. It was bad news for him and several other candidates when the socially conservative organization Iowa Family Leader, which had pledged to unite behind one candidate, failed to reach a consensus and offered no endorsement.

While that division should ultimately work to the benefit of Romney in the state (who they said was never under consideration for their endorsement), the leader of the group, frequent Republican candidate Bob Vander Plaats (who had successfully backed Mike Huckabee in the state four years ago) offered his personal endorsement to Rick Santorum. The endorsement was controversial though as Vander Plaats is reported to have approached Michele Bachmann and asked her to drop out and support Santorum instead. That was an interesting maneuver considering that Bachmann was running ahead of Santorum in Iowa pretty much all year.

Taking both polling data and committed support into account, the one candidate who should easily finish in the Top 3, and probably Top 2 in Iowa is Ron Paul, the 76 year old Texas Congressman, and who has faced some media scrutiny to the extent he may never have.

Politically astute Republicans have long been familiar with the "newsletter" problem that faces Paul. Between his stints in Congress, in the pre-internet days, a newsletter was published under Paul's name and signature that contains several examples of racist remarks and other incendiary and conspiratorial rhetoric.

Years ago, Paul said that he denounced what is in those newsletters and claimed that not only did he not write them, he never even read that at the time. This means that if he is telling the truth, Paul might not be a lunatic racist, but instead be so lax in what he lends his name to, he is someone who for years allowed his signature to sign racist screeds written by someone else.

Whatever the truth is there, this has long since been one of the reasons why Republicans like myself have been at least quietly ashamed to have Ron Paul involved in any way with our party. For a ton of reasons, he is completely unworthy of the Presidency, but he has always been looked as just a fringe, niche candidate who was never a threat to win anything.

If Paul does win Iowa in a couple weeks though, his past will be looked into by the mainstream media in a way that never has been before. Already this past week, Paul walked away from a CNN interview over questions about the newsletters. It would be to the benefit of all in the GOP if Paul, who also of course leaves open the potentially significant possibility of running as a third party candidate in the fall, were to just go away as quickly as possible. However, there may be political points to be scored if another Republican points out just how dangerous Paul and his brand of politics are.

Will most of those who currently support Ron Paul in a cult-like fashion even care though?

NFL Week 16

2011-12-21T07:00:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 99-125 (44%)

1. Texans (10-4) at Colts (1-13)
2. Raiders (7-7) at Chiefs (6-8)
3. Jaguars (4-10) at Titans (7-7)
4. Dolphins (5-9) at Patriots (11-3)
5. Cardinals (7-7) at Bengals (8-6)
6. Broncos (8-6) at Bills (5-9)
7. Rams (2-12) at Steelers (10-4)
8. Giants (7-7) at Jets (8-6)
9. Vikings (2-12) at Redskins (5-9)
10. Buccaneers (4-10) at Panthers (5-9)
11. Browns (4-10) at Ravens (10-4)
12. Chargers (7-7) at Lions (9-5)
13. Eagles (6-8) at Cowboys (8-6)
14. 49'ers (11-3) at Seahawks (7-7)
15. Bears (7-7) at Packers (13-1)
16. Falcons (9-5) at Saints (11-3)

NFL Week 15 Results

2011-12-20T17:37:00.002-06:00

Let's get this season over with and focus on the NBA and NHL...

1. Jaguars (4-9) at Falcons (8-5)- Lost 1
2. Cowboys (7-6) at Buccaneers (4-9)- Lost 2
3. Panthers (4-9) at Texans (10-3)- Lost 3
4. Redskins (4-9) at Giants (7-6)- Won 1
5. Dolphins (4-9) at Bills (5-8)- Lost 4
6. Seahawks (6-7) at Bears (7-6)- Lost 5
7. Saints (10-3) at Vikings (2-11)- Lost 6
8. Bengals (7-6) at Rams (2-11)- Won 2
9. Titans (7-6) at Colts (0-13)- Lost 7
10. Packers (13-0) at Chiefs (5-8)- Won 3
11. Lions (8-5) at Raiders (7-6)- Lost 8
12. Patriots (10-3) at Broncos (8-5)- Lost 9
13. Jets (8-5) at Eagles (5-8)- Lost 10
14. Browns (4-9) at Cardinals (6-7)- Lost 11
15. Ravens (10-3) at Chargers (6-7)- Won 4
16. Steelers (10-3) at 49'ers (10-3)- Lost 12

Week 15 Results: 4-12 (25%)
Overall Results: 99-125 (44%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-12-17T20:35:00.002-06:00

In Presidential politics, a week can be an eternity, and the landscape on this particular Saturday night looks far different than it would have been expected to look last Saturday night.

A week ago, most of the GOP candidates met in Iowa for a debate broadcast on ABC, which received high ratings. It was the first debate where Newt Gingrich was expected to face intense scrutiny as the new front-runner in the race, and after the showdown, the conventional wisdom was that he emerged pretty much unscathed and that his front-runner status would be strengthened.

Conversely, the pundits all declared that Mitt Romney had a relatively poor debate due in large part to what they considered one of the major gaffes in the campaign. I have to admit, as a Romney supporter, I kind of shuddered myself, and expected it to be bad news in the political short-term. During the debate, Romney, in a moment of frustration with a claim being made by opponent Rick Perry (who it should be pointed out has fallen back in the pack and would be in the greater interest of Romney to rebound and harm Gingrich), offered to bet the Governor of Texas $10,000 that he could not back up what he was claiming.

Romney would have won the bet, and Perry did not take it, (and unfortunately for him did not have an immediate comeback at such an opportune time), but the former Massachusetts Governor's campaign advisers must have been aghast at the prospect of the very wealthy, typically straight-laced candidate offering such a brash wager on national television during a debate, for an amount that the average American would consider obscene.

I am not claiming that Romney's bet offer was a strategically good political move (although it might have made him look "less Mormon"), but a week later, all Romney supporters have to not only be breathing a sigh of relief, but in actuality take great delight at just how much stronger Romney looks this Saturday evening than right after the last debate.

Much of that has to do with the fact that Gingrich has had a week that has seen him fall steeply in national and state polls. Without any other viable "anti-Romney candidates" left to get a first look, those folks may be running out of places to turn. I have always believed Gingrich's support was extremely thin and all the discussion in the media and online about him, his past, his views, and his political viability, have now taken a toll and is likely to continue to do so. While the pundits thought Gingrich may have survived last Saturday night's debate, I believe that a lot of people heard things about him that night for the first time that have caused them concern.

As the week progressed, Gingrich, long known for his shoot from the lip style, made one of the larger missteps of the campaign. Mitt Romney had said that Gingrich should pay back the millions of dollars he made as a consultant to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which would be in line with what Gingrich has said before about politicians who took money from the two mortgage giants in their happier times. The former U.S. House Speaker reacted angrily to Romney by stating that he would only consider it when Romney pay back the private sector money he made many years ago as an executive with Bain Capital. Sounding like a Daily Kos reading Wall Street Occupier, the supposedly conservative Gingrich referenced Romney bankrupting companies and laying people off.

Besides for the obvious differences between the way the two men got rich, conservatives by and large felt that Newt's socialistic response was ludicrous and perhaps evidence that the old Gingrich and his lack of discipline was still very much in effect. The Romney campaign quickly produced video clips of Gingrich earlier this year lavishly praising Romney's business success as evidence of his strength as a leader. By the end of the week, Gingrich retracted his criticism of Romney's private sector record and said that his opponent had gotten under his skin and forced him to make an unwise statement. Gingrich said he would score that round for Romney.

Indeed, that one 15 second soundbite by Gingrich may prove in retrospect to have been the beginning of the end of the comeback of his campaign. The candidates met again in Iowa on Thursday night, this time on Fox News, and Gingrich took some major hits early on, while conventional wisdom was that Romney rebounded with a very strong debate performance.

With late week polls showing the national gap closing, significant differences in electability against Barack Obama, and a Rasmussen Reports survey now showing Romney narrowly ahead in Iowa, momentum clearly is back on the side of my preferred candidate. In a pretty new development this campaign cycle, political junkies often check the site InTrade.com several times a day to see where some people are putting their money on shares of candidates. Needless to say, it was a very good few days for Romney in those markets.

The good news has continued with the endorsement of Romney Friday by South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. With South Carolina the third state which will be voting, a Romney win there, where he is currently considered the underdog could be a knockout blow. Haley, a Tea Party favorite has taken some heat for her strong endorsement of Romney, whom many on the right deem not sufficiently conservative, but they ought to realize that Haley also endorsed him back in 2008. Romney returned the favor when he offered support to Haley, when she was a heavy underdog in a crowded 2010 Gubernatorial primary, and that seems to have paid off for him.

This evening, Romney received the endorsement of Iowa's largest newspaper, the Des Moines Register. A variety of polling outfits are now seeming to show the contest in Iowa, which had Gingrich ahead by a significant margin not long ago, is now a three way race between Gingrich, Romney, and Ron Paul, with Gingrich looking to be falling fast. The campaign ads that Ron Paul are running against him are certainly continuing to that, and Paul is said to be the best organized on the ground in the Hawkeye State. For a variety of reasons, I still think his actual result on Caucus night might be less than what the polls claim he will have.

Speaking of Ron Paul, Thursday night's debate performance may have been bad for him with some of those who were planning to support him. To be fair, Paul has as devoted a cadre of backers as any politician in America, who totally buy into his libertarian philosophy and will not abandon him for any reason. Others though, who might have cheered on Paul's economic views regarding spending or the Federal Reserve, may have heard in the starkest terms for the first time Thursday night, just how out of the political mainstream Paul is on the issue of Iran (a nation he seems to downright have sympathy for) and the security of Israel. I think it is fair to say that on the issues of foreign policy and national defense, most Republicans would find the views of Barack Obama preferable to Ron Paul, and that's saying a lot.

Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich are the only candidates with any sort of tangible strength in both of the first two states. To briefly look at the other candidates in the finals weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire vote, there is one candidate in Jon Huntsman who is focusing solely on the Granite State (though he was present in Thursday night's Iowa debate, but did not make much news). Huntsman's appeal to moderates and Independents may ultimately get him into double digits when New Hampshire votes, but if Romney has the "big mo" nationwide, it would probably not be anywhere near enough for the kind of showing Huntsman would need to survive.

On the other side of the coin, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum have mostly tunnel vision on the Iowa Caucuses, hoping for even a surprise third place finish as a springboard to future contests.

Santorum might be running a race against time, but he has spent the most time on the ground in Iowa and is believed to have an organization of social conservatives in place, similar to the winning strategy of Mike Huckabee four years ago, that could surprise people on January 3. I believe Bachmann had a pretty strong debate Thursday night and effectively landed blows against Gingrich. While it might not be in overwhelming numbers, there is reason to believe that Bachmann is on the upswing both nationally and in Iowa, and has the potential to take votes away from Gingrich, just as other conservative candidates had passed around those same voters, who may have already been with Bachmann earlier on.

While he looks immensely weak in New Hampshire, Perry probably also has the potential for growth in Iowa. He is said to have improved somewhat in the most recent debates, but compared to his earlier performances, it would be hard not to. Last week, I mentioned how Perry, who also refers to himself as an "outsider", was running on a strong Christian identity message, may have found a new narrative comparing himself to Denver Broncos Quarterback and Evangelical Christian, Tim Tebow, the most significant cultural figure in America the past couple of weeks.

It would indeed be of Tebowesque status if Perry were able to rebound in this campaign and win a state like Iowa. With Tebowmania sweeping America, Perry is likely to keep talking about him. Perhaps if the Governor spends half of his time at all public events silently Tebowing besides a podium, it would lessen a chance for gaffes. If somehow Mr. Tebow were to actually give a personal endorsement, a la Chuck Norris on behalf of Huckabee in 2008, all bets may be off.

To conclude, politics has once again proven itself unpredictable over the last week as both Romney and Gingrich have moved in opposite directions than what were expected. Next week could bring about more surprises though, as it is never good to peak too early in Presidential politics.

While national polls and those in many states may take a bit of time to catch up, this past week has worked in a way which has made it clear that the fundamentals of the GOP nomination contest favor Mitt Romney. While the White House spent the week recognizing the formal end of the Iraq War (which is a political plus for them) and once again wrangling with Congress over budget and tax matters (in a way which may once again disappoint the Democrat base), a relatively quick and easy march to primary victory by Mitt Romney, whom they recognize as their toughest possible opponent, would not be a welcomed development.

NFL Week 15

2011-12-14T19:13:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 95-113 (46%)

1. Jaguars (4-9) at Falcons (8-5)
2. Cowboys (7-6) at Buccaneers (4-9)
3. Panthers (4-9) at Texans (10-3)
4. Redskins (4-9) at Giants (7-6)
5. Dolphins (4-9) at Bills (5-8)
6. Seahawks (6-7) at Bears (7-6)
7. Saints (10-3) at Vikings (2-11)
8. Bengals (7-6) at Rams (2-11)
9. Titans (7-6) at Colts (0-13)
10. Packers (13-0) at Chiefs (5-8)
11. Lions (8-5) at Raiders (7-6)
12. Patriots (10-3) at Broncos (8-5)
13. Jets (8-5) at Eagles (5-8)
14. Browns (4-9) at Cardinals (6-7)
15. Ravens (10-3) at Chargers (6-7)
16. Steelers (10-3) at 49'ers (10-3)

NFL Week 14 Results

2011-12-12T22:40:00.002-06:00

1. Browns (4-8) at Steelers (9-3)- Won 1
2. Chiefs (5-7) at Jets (7-5)- Loss 1
3. Buccaneers (4-8) at Jaguars (3-9)- Won 2
4. Patriots (9-3) at Redskins (4-8)- Won 3
5. Falcons (7-5) at Panthers (4-8)- Loss 2
6. Colts (0-12) at Ravens (9-3)- Loss 3
7. Eagles (4-8) at Dolphins (4-8)- Loss 4
8. Vikings (2-10) at Lions (7-5)- Loss 5
9. Saints (9-3) at Titans (7-5)- Loss 6
10. Texans (9-3) at Bengals (7-5)- Won 4
11. Bears (7-5) at Broncos (7-5)- Loss 7
12. 49'ers (10-2) at Cardinals (5-7)- Won 5
13. Bills (5-7) at Chargers (5-7)- Loss 8
14. Raiders (7-5) at Packers (12-0)- Loss 9
15. Giants (6-6) at Cowboys (7-5)- Won 6
16. Rams (2-10) at Seahawks (5-7)- Loss 10

Week 14 Results: 6-10 (38%)
Overall Results: 95-113 (46%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-12-10T16:52:00.004-06:00

With the Holiday Season now upon us, most Americans may not be paying too close attention to Presidential politics, but what has shaped up into a two-person GOP battle for the nomination continues to heat up.

Last week, most of the Republican candidates sat down with Mike Huckabee and guests for what was not really a debate, but just a series of brief interviews. I suppose I was not aware of the format when I did my post last week, and not much dramatic occurred, but there could be some fireworks later tonight when most of the GOP candidates will meet in an Iowa debate on the ABC network.

Let's briefly set the stage for tonight's nationally televised showdown.

Jon Huntsman is campaigning exclusively in New Hampshire and will not be taking part in the Iowa debate.

Rick Santorum continues to make a push for support in Iowa but has not moved up much in the polls and still looks likely to finish way back in the pack. However, he did receive the endorsement of Iowa's elected Secretary of State and appears to be more organized in the state than the candidate who is currently leading the polls.

Rick Perry, who once looked very formidable as a candidate, now mostly only makes news for gaffes, such as yesterday when he mispronounced the name of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor and incorrectly stated the number of judges on the court. Hoping to break through, Perry is now doubling down on on the Christian card, hoping to appeal to the sizable number of Evangelicals who will vote in the Republican Caucuses on January 3.

Perry openly proclaiming himself as a Christian was something that I had anticipated for some time, and many may see it as his one hope to break through against Mitt Romney, who is of course a Mormon, a religion with which many Evangelicals are dismissive of, and Newt Gingrich who is a convert to Catholicism after making his one-time mistress Calista, his third wife.

Perry's new campaign ad certainly has people talking as he addresses the cameras and speaks of being a Christian and brings up the divisive issues of gays in the military and prayer in schools. These may not be the issues that most Americans are most focused on during these troubled economic times, but it may be Perry's only prayer in this race. That ad certainly will not win him any friends on the left.

Michele Bachmann actually seems to have picked up a few points the past week in national and state polls, while continuing to lag Gingrich and Romney everywhere. It is not as though the Congresswoman's campaign has received any sort of fresh breath of light, but simply relates to the exit of Herman Cain and how at least enough of his conservative supporters switched to Bachmann to benefit her a little. Ironically, those people were probably Bachmann supporters months ago, before they switched to Cain.

Few expect Bachmann to be able to win Iowa at this point, but if her support materializes, it could catapult her into one of the traditional top three spots in the state which signify a "ticket" on to future contests. With Gingrich leading the Iowa polls though, supporters of Romney, such as myself, are hopeful that Bachman, along with Perry and Santorum do well enough among the conservatives who have ruled out Romney to affect the overall results.

Could Ron Paul win Iowa? I would think it is not outside the realm of possibility. It is even more likely that he will finish second there. This is all a matter of amusement to the extent of Establishment Romney supporters, who despise Paul and almost everything he stands for, but may find themselves openly rooting for him Iowa as a means of stopping or hurting Gingrich.

Right now, Romney folks like myself are applauding the new Paul ads attacking Gingrich that are running in Iowa, believing they will eat away at Newt's very thin support. Others will make comparisons to 2008 and claim that Paul is playing the role of Huckabee, who may stop Gingrich who is leading in the polls as Romney was four years ago, to the ultimate benefit of the 2012 Romney, just like they did for John McCain back then.

Despite everything, Newt Gingrich continues to be the polling front-runner another week. It will be worth watching the debate tonight to see just how the moderators and fellow candidates go after him and how he responds. The back and forth between Romney and Gingrich, often fought out between surrogates, has increased in the past few days and there is still the belief among many Republicans and general political observers that "Newtmentum" just cannot last for the long haul.

Much of the political discussion over the past week, unfortunately from my perspective, has been about the proposed NewsMax debate scheduled for late December and moderated by Donald Trump. Right now, only Gingrich and Santorum have accepted the invitation to appear, as the other candidates have all ruled the sideshow out over the past week. It remains to be seen if the debate even takes place, but the notorious ego of Mr. Trump can be expected to continue hitting the airwaves to criticize the Republican candidates who dissed him. One of the reasons this debate was controversial was Trump's continued threat to run for President as an Independent if he is unhappy with the GOP nominee. I suppose I would like to see Trump throwing Gingrich and Santorum together for a tv fight Apprentice style and maybe he can fire someone at the end.

There is no doubt that Mitt Romney is currently trailing Gingrich in the polls nationally and in all but a handful of recently polled states. This has become of great concern to some Romney backers and many Republicans who simply want to win and conclude that Gingrich is far less likely of the two to be able to defeat Obama, despite the fact that he may deliver the more biting 10 second attack soundbites against liberals and the incumbent.

The question remains; do we want to beat up Obama and lose or is it better to just actually beat him and take the reins of power?

I continue to think that the overall dynamics of the nomination contest will ultimately fall in favor of my candidate, Governor Romney, even if it has to wait for an Iowa result that looks bad for Mitt, but would have the effect of rallying people to close ranks behind him and save the process, much like what happened when Pat Buchanan defeated Bob Dole in the 1996 New Hampshire Primary.

There is just so much to use against Gingrich, that rank and file Republicans may not be aware of, that it may just be too much, but if used narrowly and in a focused way, it could be devastating to his candidacy. Those who have worked with Gingrich, both openly supporting Romney and otherwise, have begun to become more and more vocal about how Gingrich's leadership style was erratic and ineffective.

Mitt Romney may still be waiting for the day when ardent conservatives embrace him en masse, but in Presidential politics, money and organization still matter, and it seems as if the Romney campaign is hoping for a quick strike and a win in Iowa against expectations, but are also quite willing to rebound in New Hampshire and other early states, or even battle hand to hand across the country in a drawn our war for delegates.

Finally, while it may not have gotten too much press coverage this week, some comments and a fundraising appeal by Mitt Romney appear to have gotten Barack Obama to cancel one of his many golfing vacations.

2011-2012 College Bowl Games

2011-12-09T20:35:00.002-06:00

A week from tomorrow, the slate of 35 college football Bowl games will kick off, and while I am not an ardent fan of the college sport, I always do enjoy catching as much of this action as possible.

While I do have a genuine rooting interest in the vast majority of these games, I always do pick one team in each game to "support" and as always, they will be barked in bold here. Of course, I will be happy to cheer on my alma mater, champions of the MAC for the first time since 1983, as they will play on January 8 in the last game before that National Championship thing between two boring SEC teams.

The rankings listed here are from the latest AP poll and let me just make a quick note to state that the #5 Southern California Trojans were ineligible this year for post-season play because they were corrupt or something.

1. New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM

Temple Owls vs. Wyoming Cowboys

2. Potato Bowl
Boise, ID

Ohio Bobcats vs. Utah State Aggies

3. New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

4. St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL

Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

5. Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA

# 16. Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

6. Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. #8. Boise State Broncos

7. Hawai'i Bowl
Honolulu, HI

Nevada, Reno Wolf Pack vs. # 22. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

8. Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA

Missouri Tigers vs. North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels

9. Pizza Bowl
Detroit, MI

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Purdue Boilermakers

10. Belk Bowl
Charlotte, NC

Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack

11. Military Bowl
Washington, District of Columbia

Toledo Rockets vs. United States Air Force Academy Falcons

12. Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA

California Berkeley Golden Bears vs. Texas at Austin Longhorns

13. Sports Bowl
Orlando, FL

# 25. Florida State Seminoles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

14. Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX

Washington Huskies vs. #15. Baylor Bears

15. Armed Forces Bowl
Dallas, TX

Brigham Young Cougars vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

16. Pinstripe Bowl
New York, NY

Rutgers, State University of New Jersey Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones

17. Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

18. Insight Bowl
Tempe, AZ

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. # 19. Oklahoma Sooners

19. Texas Bowl
Houston, TX

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats

20. Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX

Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets vs. Utah Utes

21. Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

22. Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, CA

Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Fighting Illini vs. California, Los Angeles Bruins

23. Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers

24. TicketCity Bowl
Dallas, TX

# 20. Houston Cougars vs. # 24. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

25. Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL

#12. Michigan State Spartans vs. # 18. Georgia Bulldogs

26. Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL

#21. Nebraska-Lincoln Cornhuskers vs. # 10. South Carolina Gamecocks

27. Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Florida Gators

28. Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA

#9. Wisconsin-Madison Badgers vs. #6. Oregon Ducks

29. Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ

# 4. Stanford Cardinal vs. #3. Oklahoma State Cowboys

30. Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA

#13. Michigan Wolverines vs. # 17. Virginia Polytechnic Hokies

31. Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, FL

# 23. West Virginia Mountaineers vs. #14. Clemson Tigers

32. Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX

#11. Kansas State Wildcats vs. #7. Arkansas Razorbacks

33. Compass Bowl
Birmingham, AL

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

34. GoDaddy.com Bowl
Mobile, AL

Arkansas State-Jonesboro Red Wolves vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

35. Bowl Championship
New Orleans, LA

#2. Alabama Crimson Tide vs.#1. Louisiana State Tigers

NFL Week 14

2011-12-07T18:23:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 89-103 (46%)

1. Browns (4-8) at Steelers (9-3)
2. Chiefs (5-7) at Jets (7-5)
3. Buccaneers (4-8) at Jaguars (3-9)
4. Patriots (9-3) at Redskins (4-8)
5. Falcons (7-5) at Panthers (4-8)
6. Colts (0-12) at Ravens (9-3)
7. Eagles (4-8) at Dolphins (4-8)
8. Vikings (2-10) at Lions (7-5)
9. Saints (9-3) at Titans (7-5)
10. Texans (9-3) at Bengals (7-5)
11. Bears (7-5) at Broncos (7-5)
12. 49'ers (10-2) at Cardinals (5-7)
13. Bills (5-7) at Chargers (5-7)
14. Raiders (7-5) at Packers (12-0)
15. Giants (6-6) at Cowboys (7-5)
16. Rams (2-10) at Seahawks (5-7)

NFL Week 13 Results

2011-12-06T06:57:00.002-06:00

1. Eagles (4-7) at Seahawks (4-7)- Won 1
2. Panthers (3-8) at Buccaneers (4-7)- Won 2
3. Bengals (7-4 ) at Steelers (8-3)- Won 3
4. Falcons (7-4) at Texans (8-3)- Won 4
5. Jets (6-5) at Redskins (4-7)- Won 5
6. Colts (0-11) at Patriots (8-3)- Lost 1
7. Raiders (7-4) at Dolphins (3-8)- Won 6
8. Broncos (6-5) at Vikings (2-9)- Won 7
9. Titans (6-5) at Bills (5-6)- Lost 2
10. Chiefs (4-7) at Bears (7-4)- Lost 3
11. Ravens (8-3) at Browns (4-7)- Lost 4
12. Cowboys (7-4) at Cardinals (4-7)- Won 8
13. Packers (11-0) at Giants (6-5)- Lost 5
14. Rams (2-9) at 49'ers (9-2)- Lost 6
15. Lions (7-4) at Saints (8-3)- Lost 7
16. Chargers (4-7) at Jaguars (3-8)- Won 9

Week 13 Results: 9-7 (56%)
Overall Results: 89-103 (46%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-12-03T16:20:00.004-06:00

I have been having a very busy week and am unable to look at the week's developments in Presidential politics in great detail. Here are just some disjointed thoughts for the day.

With the Iowa Caucuses one month from tonight, the remaining GOP Presidential candidates are expected to take part in a Fox News forum hosted by one of their personalities, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. While "Huck" had passed on another Presidential bid earlier this year, he was the winner of the Iowa contest in 2008 and would be considered a major "get" as an endorsement. Despite longtime stories of personal animosity between the two during the '08 campaign, there have been several stories as of late indicating that Huckabee might be inching closer to an endorsement of his former rival Mitt Romney. That would be a significant development for the Romney campaign in Iowa, as they believe it would help them make inroads with Evangelical Christians and other conservatives.

Not taking part in his first campaign debate or forum of the season will be Herman Cain. Not long ago, he was leading national polls and was in first place in Iowa. Today, he suspended his campaign, ironically enough during a rally at a new campaign headquarters in Atlanta. It had been a dramatic rise for the Cain campaign and the fall has come just as fast. Questions about Cain's experience and knowledge aside, he had been rocked weeks ago by allegations of sexual harassment, but even more damaging news came during the past week,when a woman named Ginger White went on television and alleged a thirteen year affair. Cain denied that, but admitted that he had a friendship with the woman and had been giving her money for years, without his wife's knowledge.

While Gloria Cain was at her husband's side today as he ended his campaign and moved on to "Plan B" which seems to involve staying involved in the national debate, with future plans to endorse a Republican Presidential candidate, it was a pretty bizarre week for political observers as the candidate openly speculated on whether or not his campaign would end after having a long awaited face to face reunion with his wife this weekend. He had said that if the burden of these allegations became too much, he would step aside, and that seems to be what has happened. Nothing like this has really happened in Presidential politics since the Gary Hart scandal back in 1987. So, Cain is now out and it will remain to be seen just how interested the media will be in Ginger White and whatever further evidence of an affair she may wish to provide.

Even before his formal exit, Cain had fallen dramatically in the polls (which we are told will be seen later tonight when the Des Moines Register relases it's new numbers.) With Rick Perry still struggling to regain the conservatives he once had and basically only making news when he makes gaffes during campaign appearances, this support has coalesced in a big way currently behind Newt Gingrich, who to the surprise of many, looks even stronger than he did two weeks ago.

While I do not think it will last for the duration, there is no doubt that Gingrich is currently the national leader and has a huge lead in many important states, as the now consensus choice of the "non-Romneys". However, the former House Speaker continues to lag behind Mitt Romney in a big way in regards to money and organization, and has yet to face real intense scrutiny over questions regarding his personal and political pasts and his electability against Barack Obama. Despite that, Gingrich is even looking fairly good against Obama in some national polls. I also question the long-term accuracy as that, because as a Republican, I fear that if nominated, Gingrich would fall in a severe landslide to the unpopular Democrat incumbent.

The White House certainly would like to run against Gingrich and have joined in as of late in launching attacks against Mitt Romney. Democrats feel that they might either be able to actually influence the GOP nomination contest in stopping Romney or seriously weakening him before a general election.

With the former Massachusetts Governor receiving fire from all ends the past couple of weeks, there are much questions in regards to his campaign strategy and positioning. The often unflappable candidate appeared to be quite peeved during a Fox News interview with Brett Baier earlier this week and was panned by many for the performance.

It remains to be seen just how serious the Romney campaign will be in viewing Gingrich as a threat in Iowa, New Hampshire, or anywhere else, and if they will turn to the airwaves to attack him. The messages have been a bit mixed thus far, as they probably prefer to have other candidates or the media dredge up the serious vulnerabilities that Gingrich has, or also they may just be patient in waiting for Newt's own mouth to get him into trouble. For his part, Gingrich is saying he plans to stay above the fray and not return attacks in kind. It will be interesting to see the dynamic in the next few debates, such as tonight with Huckabee, and later on in the month, with one hosted by none other than Donald Trump. That should make for interesting (if not necessarily smart) television.

I could go on for pages as to reasons why Gingrich is leading Romney currently among conservatives, while not necessarily being more conservative. I do feel that the next few weeks will see these questions come more to the forefront, but even if Iowa produces an unorthodox result a month from now (such as a very strong showing for Ron Paul), there will be other opportunities for a candidate like Romney to right the ship in New Hampshire and then try to take Florida and South Carolina. What appears more obvious though is that if Gingrich or any other non-Romney option cannot take Iowa, they are unlikely to win anywhere, and it will be a fairly short contest.

While trailing once again in the polls against the newest "flavor of the month", Romney continues to garner endorsements. Recently, he had received ones from folks such as New Hampshire's new Senator Kelly Ayotte, a favorite of conservatives, as well as her South Dakota colleague John Thune, who once looked like a serious Presidential candidate, but who opted not to run. We can speculate that had he run Thune might be in a strong position as a Romney alternative among many in the GOP right now. Along those lines, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, now a top Romney campaign surrogate, perhaps somewhere deep down feels he conceded to Mitt too early and might be in a strong position now if he had stayed the course and remained in the race.

In a bit of a contrast this past week (besides for the potentially significant endorsements of Florida's Cuban-American Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, her colleague Mario Diaz-Balart, and his brother, the former Congressman), the Romney campaign has been rolling out some more moderate GOP endorsements, such as those from former Iowa Governor Robert Ray, former Missouri Senator John Danforth, and Alaska U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (which almost sounds like something that could push her rival Sarah Palin publicly into another camp.)

Hypothetical situations aside, we can now look at a perceived reality of a Romney vs. Gingrich fight. Experience, character, and electability are things that Republicans will need to think very strongly about as opposed to just who gives the best pithy sound bites.

Switching gears to conclude this week's post involve a mention of some third party/Independent Presidential news. Donald Trump, who publicly has seemed to be leaning towards Romney, continues to state that he might run if he is unsatisfied with the GOP nominee, but I think that will be unlikely. Struggling GOP candidate Jon Huntsman also apparently ruled out an Independent bid this past week and is even being urged to do so by one time GOP loyalist former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman.

Nearly invisible Republican candidate Gary Johnson is now seemingly preparing his supporters for his exit from the GOP race to instead seek the Libertarian Party nomination. One GOP candidate who never got out of the exploratory phase, social conservative Roy Moore, was thought of as a potential Constitution Party candidate instead, but in the past week, he ended all White House speculation by launching instead a comeback attempt to the Alabama Supreme Court. One name that might get some mention in the right-wing Constitution Party is former Virginia Congressman Virgil Goode, who served from 1997-2009, first as a Democrat, then as an Independent, and finally as a Republican. On the other end of the spectrum, former controversial Georgia Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney may seek a repeat of her 2008 Presidential nomination from the Green Party. Additionally, the very liberal former Mayor of Salt Lake City, Rocky Anderson, is apparently planning on some sort of White House run.

In considering potential third party bids (which would be very significant in my view if the nation is faced with a choice between Obama and Gingrich ), the top people to watch would of course be Ron Paul, who likely will still try to make as much noise as possible, as well as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire, who could attempt to get ballot access as some sort of centrist Ross Perot type option of the 21st Century.

NFL Week 13

2011-11-30T00:32:00.002-06:00

Basically all season, it has been quite obvious that the Chicago Bears are playing for a wildcard slot and not a repeat performance as NFC North Champions or the #1 NFC seed.

Still though, as long as things are mathematically possible, I have a hard time going against my "system" here in stating who I want to win games, as to best benefit the Bears. However, this means that last week, and especially this week, there are some games in which deep down inside, I probably do not want to be right on who I have bolded.

Overall Results: 80-96 (45%)

1. Eagles (4-7) at Seahawks (4-7)
2. Panthers (3-8) at Buccaneers (4-7)
3. Bengals (7-4 ) at Steelers (8-3)
4. Falcons (7-4) at Texans (8-3)
5. Jets (6-5) at Redskins (4-7)
6. Colts (0-11) at Patriots (8-3)
7. Raiders (7-4) at Dolphins (3-8)
8. Broncos (6-5) at Vikings (2-9)
9. Titans (6-5) at Bills (5-6)
10. Chiefs (4-7) at Bears (7-4)
11. Ravens (8-3) at Browns (4-7)
12. Cowboys (7-4) at Cardinals (4-7)
13. Packers (11-0) at Giants (6-5)
14. Rams (2-9) at 49'ers (9-2)
15. Lions (7-4) at Saints (8-3)
16. Chargers (4-7) at Jaguars (3-8)

NFL Week 12 Results

2011-11-29T07:07:00.002-06:00

1. Packers (10-0) at Lions (7-3)- Loss 1
2. Dolphins (3-7) at Cowboys (6-4)- Loss 2
3. 49'ers (9-1) at Ravens (7-3)- Won 1
4. Texans (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7)- Won 2
5. Bills (5-5) at Jets (5-5)- Loss 3
6. Browns (4-6) at Bengals (6-4)- Won 3
7. Vikings (2-8) at Falcons (6-4)- Loss 4
8. Cardinals (3-7) at Rams (2-8)- Loss 5
9. Panthers (2-8) at Colts (0-10)- Loss 6
10. Buccaneers (4-6) at Titans (5-5)- Won 4
11. Bears (7-3) at Raiders (6-4)- Loss 7
12. Redskins (3-7) at Seahawks (4-6)- Won 5
13. Broncos (5-5) at Chargers (4-6)- Won 6
14. Patriots (7-3) at Eagles (4-6)- Won 7
15. Steelers (7-3) at Chiefs (4-6)- Loss 8
16. Giants (6-4) at Saints (7-3)- Loss 9

Week 12 Results : 7-9 (44%)
Overall Results: 80-96 (45%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-11-26T19:37:00.002-06:00

This past Thanksgiving week saw the GOP Presidential contenders continue to try to make their pitch to voters as the first contest in Iowa is literally a few weeks away.

Perhaps because of the holiday, there was not much in the way of polling in the contest, as at the end of this week, Newt Gingrich appears to have a slight lead on Mitt Romney in the somewhat meaningless national polls, but with the candidate also holding polling advantages in Iowa and South Carolina. A handful of New Hampshire polls this week show that while Gingrich has moved up to second place, Romney continues to hold a double digit lead and is the front-runner there, which indicates that last week's poll showing a statistical dead heat in the Granite State may have been an outlier.

The main political event of the week was a Tuesday night debate in Washington D.C that was sponsored in part by the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation. Broadcast on CNN, it was designated as the "Commander in Chief" debate, as it primarily focused on foreign policy and defense issues.

The subject matter made it a bit more difficult for one time supposed GOP front runners Herman Cain and Rick Perry to make much noise, as the topics were considered a bit out of their comfort zone. Conversely, former Senator Rick Santorum and current Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (who was the victim of completely disgusting behavior this week by NBC's Late Night with Jimmy Fallon) seemed a bit more engaged by the topics. There is some speculation that Bachmann, who is a member of the House Intelligence Committee might have leaked classified in formation during one answer in the debate.

Receiving far more air time in the debate than they previously had, courtesy of CNN, were candidates Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman who espoused foreign policy views that are a bit out of the mainstream of GOP primary voters on issues ranging from Afghanistan to the Patriot Act to overall defense spending. Some of the other candidates forcefully disagreed with either Paul or Huntsman during these exchanges. While Paul's libertarian views are well known to most tuned in GOP voters, the additional exposure of Huntsman in a debate could prove valuable to him if people liked what they heard. Some still talk of Huntsman being the next to surge as the "anti-Romney" but I have my doubts on that, since right-wingers actually like Romney more than Huntsman. Currently, the former Utah Governor is still just under double digits in his solely focused state of New Hampshire.

The other two candidates to appear in the CNN debate were of course Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, who received the most attention afterwards, although Romney got to speak far less than he usually does in the debates. During the times he did have the floor, he staked out positions more conservative than those who were challenging him on a particular point of contention. All things considered, it was another fairly solid debate for Romney.

Gingrich, who has received plaudits from many Republicans for his intelligence and debating skills, also impressed many on Tuesday night. However, a topic that came up towards the end of the debate made the most headlines, as Gingrich expressed a position that some illegal immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for many years should be legalized to some extent. This is the kind of issue that has hurt Perry earlier this cycle and the other GOP candidates, such as Bachmann quickly jumped over Gingrich's comments, calling it "amnesty." The former Speaker of the House has stood by his position, although he seemed to realize almost immediately that he may have misspoke in a political context.

Romney also seemed to disagree with anything that could be considered "amnesty", although some have pointed out he was not always opposed to any path to legalization for those who are currently here illegally. It is a somewhat complicated issue to finesse politically, but to me, as a Romney supporter, it seems pretty clear that the candidate is continuing an overall position of insisting that anybody currently in the U.S. illegally needs to "stay in line" as anyone else would before they are legalized. Romney continues to state that he is very favorable towards all forms of legal immigration, and unlike some on the far right, would encourage and celebrate it.

In the meantime, this has the potential to be a wedge issue to harm Gingrich among very conservative voters. While my own personal views on the overall subject matter, both on the merits and what would be in the long term interest of the GOP are more complex, it just remains so very obvious to me that Romney is far away more electable than Gingrich ever could be, so it is completely understandable if he were to take advantage of the contrast on this issue.

NFL Week 12

2011-11-23T00:27:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 73-87 (46%)

1. Packers (10-0) at Lions (7-3)
2. Dolphins (3-7) at Cowboys (6-4)
3. 49'ers (9-1) at Ravens (7-3)
4. Texans (7-3) at Jaguars (3-7)
5. Bills (5-5) at Jets (5-5)
6. Browns (4-6) at Bengals (6-4)
7. Vikings (2-8) at Falcons (6-4)
8. Cardinals (3-7) at Rams (2-8)
9. Panthers (2-8) at Colts (0-10)
10. Buccaneers (4-6) at Titans (5-5)
11. Bears (7-3) at Raiders (6-4)
12. Redskins (3-7) at Seahawks (4-6)
13. Broncos (5-5) at Chargers (4-6)
14. Patriots (7-3) at Eagles (4-6)
15. Steelers (7-3) at Chiefs (4-6)
16. Giants (6-4) at Saints (7-3)

NFL Week 11 Results

2011-11-22T06:55:00.002-06:00

1. Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5)- Won 1
2. Buccaneers (4-5) at Packers (9-0)- Loss 1
3. Panthers (2-7) at Lions (6-3)- Loss 2
4. Jaguars (3-6) at Browns (3-6)- Loss 3
5. Raiders (5-4) at Vikings (2-7)- Won 2
6. Bills (5-4) at Dolphins (2-7)- Loss 4
7. Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (3-6)- Loss 5
8. Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)- Loss 6
9. Cardinals (3-6) at 49'ers (8-1)- Loss 7
10. Seahawks (3-6) at Rams (2-7)- Loss 8
11. Titans (5-4) at Falcons (5-4)- Loss 9
12. Chargers (4-5) at Bears (6-3)- Won 3
13. Eagles (3-6) at Giants (6-3)- Won 4
14. Chiefs (4-5) at Patriots (6-3)- Loss 10

Week 11 Results: 4-10 (29%)
Overall Results: 73-87 (46%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-11-19T21:50:00.002-06:00

It will be a fairly brief look at the past week in Presidential politics, as I do not consider much in the way of major developments occurring.

Earlier today, most of the GOP candidates met in Iowa for a forum sponsored by a social conservative organization, but without the presence of either candidate Mitt Romney nor television cameras, it does not seem like anything that will bring about great headlines.

Instead, political observers spent much of the week looking at all sorts of primary and general election polls; both national and from key states, to determine the lay of the land.

Rick Perry, who has been down in the polls for quite some time, now seems to have slipped even further, following the debacle of his Michigan debate performance. There are also reports that his once mighty fundraising numbers have gone way south.

Joining Perry in having seen some pretty bad poll numbers this past week is another candidate who once seemed to be flying high. The aftermath of the Herman Cain sexual harassment allegations now appear to have had an effect on all sorts of public opinion questions on Cain. Continued problems as well with his grasp on the issues also are likely contributing to that. This week, during an editorial session with a Milwaukee newspaper, Cain appeared confused on the issue of Libya when asked about. While he eventually managed to give a reasonably appropriate answer, it took a good deal of time and discomfort to reach that position, and the video of the moment went viral. Cain spent the rest of the week proclaiming that he should not be expected to know much about foreign policy at this point, and that he would have a wise and capable staff as President who would assist him. Cain said that we need to elect a "leader, not a reader."

On the heels of that, Cain requested that video cameras not be present, as they have been for the other candidates, when he was scheduled to meet with New Hampshire's influention Union Leader newspaper. Cain later skipped out on the interview all together. The candidate, who has done better as candidate than any other black Republican in history, became the first GOP contender this cycle to receive Secret Service protection. While threats to Cain were cited as the reason (a horrible and believable reality), some say that the presence of the agents on the trail may allow the candidate to both stay better on a time schedule and to be able to avoid pesky media inquiries as he campaigns.

With both Cain and Perry having fallen off the candidate who received by far the most buzz this week is an older name and older face. While Newt Gingrich was once written off as having no prayer for the nomination, he is suddenly at the top or near the top in just about every state and nationally, as the newest "non-Romney" alternative. Not all of the polling data is clear though as some have him trailing Barack Obama by double digits in a hypothetical general election, while others actually show him ahead of the incumbent. (I am of the opinion that if nominated, Gingrich would lose in a landslide.) Similarly, while most polls show Gingrich still well behind New Hampshire frontrunner Mitt Romney, one poll late this week showed it a two person race, which if true, would be a very interesting development. We will have to wait to see other polls out of New Hampshire to determine if it really is a race there or if that one poll was just an outlier.

With his campaign surge, the Gingrich campaign will face a great deal of media scrutiny (perhaps pushed by other candidates) regarding his very colorful personal history as well as his financial and business dealings after leaving elected office in 1998. One example of that is the fact that Gingrich was paid millions as an "advisor" to the highly controversial Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac agencies. Gingrich seems unapologetic about his status as a Washington insider.

I continue to maintain that Gingrich's poll numbers are due to his name recognition, and the impression he has had on conservative voters in debates. That is not the same though as having money and organizations in place to actually be able to turn out votes when the calender hits 2012. It is interesting though that the long-counted out Newt is now considered one of the top two in the field. A year ago at this time, the "big four" who were considered the major potential Republican candidates were Romney and Gingrich, along with two candidates who opted not to seek the nomination; Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin.

It will be worth looking at Gingrich's poll numbers a week from now, as media focus on his marriages, business relationships, and past positions on issues such as global warming and health care mandates may cause conservatives to sour on him, as they have several others before this cycle.

In the meantime, the Obama White House seems to be fairly certain (justifiably so in my opinion) that their opponent will be Mitt Romney, as they and the campaign organization frequently make negative reference to their would be opponent. As would be expected, the Romney campaign is attempting to capitalize on this attention saying that Democrats are "obsessed" with Mitt.

As we conclude, another interesting poll this week has shown that voters have very much soured on the so-called "Occupy Wall Street Movement", which has spread this autumn to cities across the country. Headlines in recent weeks have included reports of shootings, assaults, drug use, deaths, and general lawlessness in camps where the hygiene challenged left-wing anarchists have set up. One young man, who had taken part in Occupy events took a gun and fired shots at the White House, and is now charged with attempting to assassinate the President (who was thankfully safely across the country at the time.)

For several weeks, the White House seemed to be counting on the Occupy Wall Street goings on to captivate their base and motivate voters to their side. The fact that this movement has been been co-opted by counterculture forces, appears to have turned the country off and potentially robbed Obama backers of something they had hoped would work in their favor.

It all sounds pretty similar to how Democrats were hurt back in 1968 and 1972.

NFL Week 11

2011-11-16T00:28:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 69-77 (47%)

1. Jets (5-4) at Broncos (4-5)
2. Buccaneers (4-5) at Packers (9-0)
3. Panthers (2-7) at Lions (6-3)
4. Jaguars (3-6) at Browns (3-6)
5. Raiders (5-4) at Vikings (2-7)
6. Bills (5-4) at Dolphins (2-7)
7. Cowboys (5-4) at Redskins (3-6)
8. Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)
9. Cardinals (3-6) at 49'ers (8-1)
10. Seahawks (3-6) at Rams (2-7)
11. Titans (5-4) at Falcons (5-4)
12. Chargers (4-5) at Bears (6-3)
13. Eagles (3-6) at Giants (6-3)
14. Chiefs (4-5) at Patriots (6-3)

NFL Week 10 Results

2011-11-15T06:55:00.002-06:00

1. Raiders (4-4) at Chargers (4-4)- Loss 1
2. Cardinals (2-6) at Eagles (3-5)- Won 1
3. Titans (4-4) at Panthers (2-6)- Won 2
4. Texans (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-4)- Won 3
5. Redskins (3-5) at Dolphins (1-7)- Won 4
6. Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (0-9)- Loss 2
7. Broncos (3-5) at Chiefs (4-4)- Loss 3
8. Bills (5-3) at Cowboys (4-4)- Loss 4
9. Saints (6-3) at Falcons (5-3)- Loss 5
10. Rams (1-7) at Browns (3-5)- Loss 6
11. Steelers (6-3) at Bengals (6-2)- Won 5
12. Ravens (6-2) at Seahawks (2-6)- Loss 7
13. Giants (6-2) at 49'ers (7-1)- Loss 8
14. Lions (6-2) at Bears (5-3)- Won 6
15. Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3)- Loss 9
16. Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0)- Loss 10

Week 10 Results: 6-10 (38%)
Overall Results: 69-77 (47%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-11-12T18:30:00.002-06:00

Amid Presidential politics developments, and off year elections in several states, in which both parties were able to claim victories that might carry positive implications, America was focused on a major news story out of Pennsylvania.

For decades, legendary Penn State football coach Joe Paterno was an extremely valuable figure for an endorsement in GOP Presidential primaries. This cyle though, his phone is likely to remain silent, as the octogenarian was forced from his post over the furor that developed involved the university and the football program not taking seriously enough knowledge involving horrible acts of child sexual abuse by former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky. The shocking and sordid details of the allegations have polarized the world of sports and have had much of America talking. Paterno's one sterling reputation has now taken a major hit as most are willing to say that he (and others) should have done far more years ago to prevent further actions by Sandusky, who now faces a trial and the rest of his life in prison.

While Barack Obama and some of the Republican Presidential candidates, including the Keystone State's own Rick Santorum, have been asked to comment on the matter, it did not manage to make itself a large part of the campaign narrative the past week. Instead, it maybe overshadowed, at least to a small extent, Presidential campaign news. Nonetheless, two major developments in the race managed to get their fair share of attention.

Early in the week, a Chicago area woman named Sharon Bielak came forward in New York City, alongside notorious publicity seeking attorney Gloria Allred to accuse Herman Cain of making unwanted sexual advances towards her in a car after a 1997 dinner meeting. While Allred has been known to be an open Democrat, Bielak has claimed to be an active Republican and Tea Party sympathizer who shares Cain's politics but believes he has been dishonest about the accusations of sexual harassment against him. Additionally, the name of one of Cain's National Restaurant Association accusers became public, and we learned that the woman is a longtime Washington D.C. press spokesperson for various governmental agencies.

For his part, Cain denied having any memory of the woman whatsoever and forcefully denied all allegations of misconduct during a press conference and in other media appearances. This is despite the fact that a Chicago conservative radio personality reports she personally witnessed Cain and Bielak having a conversation back in September at a Tea Party event. The eyewitness Amy Jacobson, who wishes she would have taken a picture, began by describing their encounter as seemingly "flirtatious" complete with hugging to later saying that Bielak appeared to be angrily telling something to Cain who remained silent.

Since she has come publicly forward, much has been made about Bielak's past professional, financial, and personal life in regards to her credibility and what her motivation for coming forward may be. Conservative voices have gone to great lengths to try to tie her, not to another GOP campaign, but to the Obama White House, as there has been talk of her somehow having ties to Obama political honcho David Axelrod in Chicago.

In regards to his "he said, she said", I really do not know what to believe. Cain has said he would be willing to take a lie detector test in order to prove all these allegations against him as being false, and I would like to see that. My hunch is that he probably has something to hide in regards to the fact that multiple women have accused him of at least unprofessional behavior. Maybe they are all lying, but the fact is that large sums of money were indeed paid out to two of them. As for Bielak, her story sounds reasonably credible, but just something about her is not adding up to me, and I have my doubts that she is being totally truthful.

Lie detector tests for all!

On Wednesday night, financial network CNBC hosted an economics themed debate in Michigan, which made headlines for another reason I will get into later, but in the debate, Cain likely appreciated the chance to change the subject back to his 9-9-9 plan and away from allegations of sexual harassment and in Bielak's case, what would basically be assault. The audience booed the debate journalists when they tried to engage Cain or another GOP candidate on the matter. Politically speaking, Cain is probably on solid ground, at least for now with many conservatives, painting himself as a member of a conspiracy and target of the liberal media. Republicans, even those who do not support Cain for President, tend to very much want these allegations to be false.

The most memorable part of the debate, and one that is sure to live in political lore, came from Rick Perry however. Criticized harshly for his past debate performances, Perry had a lot on the line going into the evening. He seemed to be doing relatively well, but then came a moment that I would consider easiest the most embarrassing moment in any national debate in American history. Perry turned to Ron Paul and said he would cut three federal agencies. After naming the first two as Education and Commerce, he was unable to think of the third one, which was the Energy Department, something he had talked about frequently on the campaign trail.

For over 50 seconds, Perry floundered and was unable to come up with the third part of his key plan. Simple stage fright, being unprepared, trying to secretly sabotage a campaign he never really wanted to enter, or just being flat out dumb, it really does not matter. Perry's struggling campaign may have came to a crashing end at that very moment. In his words,"oops."

While this was going on, the other candidates stood by on stage in a state of semi-shock. Some seemed to be trying to help him get his train of thought, while others were trying to plant a word to get him to say something even dumber (which he started to do in regards to the EPA.) Watching at home, my own mouth was open in surprise in a way that it may not have been since I watched Howard Dean scream like a banshee in Iowa.

Perry had no choice but to admit that he "stepped in it" during the debate and over the next couple of days made a large media tour, going on news shows, and doing the Top Ten List with David Letterman, trying to do damage control in regards to this gaffe. To some extent, I give Perry credit for not trying to make legitimate excuses as to why he froze, but it was still an extremely damaging moment politically. While Perry is now almost a sympathetic figure to some as a bumbler in over his head, that is not the kind of narrative that lends itself to a successful Presidential campaign.

Tonight, the candidates met in South Carolina on CBS for a poorly produced foreign policy debate. Very few people probably watched this Saturday night debate outside of hopeless political junkies and drunk SEC football fans who turned into CBS for what has been a usual time slot to see a game. Perry made some jokes about what happened earlier in the week, and was a bit more on his game this time, although the bar had been set pretty low. A few days ago, there was serious speculation that it was time for Perry to drop out and go back to Texas and continue with the job that he seems to care about. It remains to be seen if he can get the subject changed fast away from his horrible Presidential debate performances.

In both debates this week, Mitt Romney was as well-prepared and effective as usual. Still, the media and some in both parties continue to talk about "the anti-Romney alternative" and if that person can eventually take him out. While some have rallied around Cain after the allegations made against him, there is also some evidence that his favorables (and perceived electability) have taken a bit of a hit and I think that will continue. As mentioned, Rick Perry, despite his millions in campaign cash and professional campaign infrastructure may be a lost cause, so now the talk has centered on what could be a two man race between Romney and Newt Gingrich.

While it is true that the troubles of Perry and Cain may benefit Newt in the short-term, I maintain that it will be nothing but good news for Mitt long term. Gingrich has certainly benefited in the polls, as a result of his name recognition and debate performances, where he comes across as knowledgeable elder statesman who attacks Obama, but mostly speaks positively about his fellow candidates. The rest of the time he spends arguing with the moderators and attacking the media, which of course conservatives cannot get enough of.

Does Gingrich have the money or campaign structure to be a threat for the nomination? Absolutely not in my opinion. Gingrich is barely campaigning, outside of his debate appearances and I believe he is smart to know that he is not going to be nominated. His background which includes a turbulent political history and beyond messy private life have barely been touched in this campaign and a lot of Republican leaners may not be too familiar with it. Bottom line is that Gingrich's current poll numbers are completely over-inflated in comparison to the potential he has to get actual votes.

With Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann still believed to just be also-rans, some, especially in the media, keep predicting a surge for Jon Huntsman somewhere down the line. I do not see that happening. Conservatives just do not like what he is selling and his campaign has not been very effective in breaking through the pack, even in New Hampshire, where he is now betting everything.

So, I am left with the theory that Mitt Romney, my candidate, takes the nomination, and likely seals the deal before the calender hits February. I also have a hunch, as much as I hate to say it, that the candidate who will finish in second place in a lot of states, and may formally end the primary season as the "runner-up" is going to be .... Ron Paul.

NFL Week 10

2011-11-09T00:04:00.002-06:00

Overall Results: 63-67 (48%)

1. Raiders (4-4) at Chargers (4-4)
2. Cardinals (2-6) at Eagles (3-5)
3. Titans (4-4) at Panthers (2-6)
4. Texans (6-3) at Buccaneers (4-4)
5. Redskins (3-5) at Dolphins (1-7)
6. Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (0-9)
7. Broncos (3-5) at Chiefs (4-4)
8. Bills (5-3) at Cowboys (4-4)
9. Saints (6-3) at Falcons (5-3)
10. Rams (1-7) at Browns (3-5)
11. Steelers (6-3) at Bengals (6-2)
12. Ravens (6-2) at Seahawks (2-6)
13. Giants (6-2) at 49'ers (7-1)
14. Lions (6-2) at Bears (5-3)
15. Patriots (5-3) at Jets (5-3)
16. Vikings (2-6) at Packers (8-0)

NFL Week 9 Results

2011-11-08T07:07:00.002-06:00

1. Dolphins (0-7) at Chiefs (4-3)- Loss 1
2. Falcons (4-3) at Colts (0-8)- Loss 2
3. Buccaneers (4-3) at Saints (5-3)- Loss 3
4. Jets (4-3) at Bills (5-2)- Loss 4
5. Seahawks (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4)- Loss 5
6. Browns (3-4) at Texans (5-3)- Won 1
7. 49'ers (6-1) at Redskins (3-4)- Loss 6
8. Bengals (5-2) at Titans (4-3)- Loss 7
9. Broncos (2-5) at Raiders (4-3)- Won 2
10. Giants (5-2) at Patriots (5-2)- Loss 8
11. Rams (1-6) at Cardinals (1-6)- Won 3
12. Packers (7-0) at Chargers (4-3)- Loss 9
13. Ravens (5-2) at Steelers (6-2)- Loss 10
14. Bears (4-3) at Eagles (3-4)- Won 4

Happy to have a subpar week, as long as Game # 14 turned out the way it did.

Week 9 Results: 4-10 (29%)
Overall Results: 63-67 (48%)

2011 Gubernatorial Races- Final Predictions

2011-11-07T17:35:00.001-06:00

2011 Gubernatorial Races- Final Predictions

There is not a whole lot to say in this post. Election Day 2010 was action packed, as will be Election Day 2012.

Election Day 2011, which will occur tomorrow, is of course a far smaller deal, and even the two remaining Gubernatorial contests continue to not have much in the way of suspense. Already within the past month, as I correctly predicted, sitting Governors in Louisiana and West Virginia defeated challengers.

Kentucky:

No changes whatsoever in the Bluegrass State over the past few months. This race has never developed into anything competitive, despite the massive advantage that Republicans tend to have in statewide federal races.

Democrat Steve Beshear will easily win a second term over Republican opponent David Williams. The GOP will probably be content if they manage to hang on to the one statewide down ballot office they currently hold.

Prediction: Safe Democrat

Williams campaign link:

http://williamsfarmer.com

Mississippi:

Late polling indicates that both major party Gubernatorial nominees in the state are reasonably popular, but ultimately, it will be the conservative makeup of the electorate, along with the popularity of outgoing GOP Governor Haley Barbour that is likely to elect Lt. Governor Phil Bryant over his opponent, Democrat Johnny DuPree.

Barbour was believed to be behind another GOP candidate in the primary, but is now working to elect Bryant as his successor. Turnout might be unpredictable and the state's African-American population may turn out in high numbers for DuPree, the state's first black candidate for Governor in modern times, so there is an outside chance that Bryant's win, though substantial, will not be an all out blowout. In a mirror image of Kentucky, Mississippi Democrats will be happy to hang to the one statewide down ballot office they currently hold.

Prediction: Likely Republican

Bryant campaign link:

http://www.philbryant.com

Race for the White House 2012

2011-11-05T20:34:00.002-05:00

Tomorrow, November 6th, will put the countdown at one year for the 2012 Presidential election. Today though, I voted in a statewide straw poll, open to all Illinois voters. Based on late breaking reports, 3,649 people took part, making it one of the largest straw polls thus far. The proceeds went to benefit the Illinois Republican Party and participants were able to vote online and in person today at several locations throughout the state.

Based on the online results, in what has to not be too great of a surprise, Ron Paul won yet another straw poll. Apparently, his libertarian minded supporters are fine with the fact that the $5 they spent to vote went to the bank account of an establishment Republican organization. Among those who voted today in person, the winner was Mitt Romney, and I was proud to be among that group. Herman Cain finished second among both online and in person votes.

It was an interesting week in politics, that I will just cover briefly. The developments were likely a lot more interesting than a "debate" that was held tonight in Texas between contenders Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. After having been written off for dead months ago, the problems of some other candidates have left Gingrich in a now stronger position, where he appears to be running third nationally and perhaps even better in some states. I still do not think Gingrich has the money or organization though to actually get the votes that match his level of name recognition or even at the level he is currently polling.

Instead, the race to be the last candidate standing to face frontrunner Mitt Romney continues to be among Cain and Rick Perry. Both candidates had pretty noteworthy weeks, though Cain's problems were by the biggest story of the week, and in fact was something that received more press attention than any candidate "scandal" in recent memory.

First though was the aftermath of a speech Perry gave last Friday night in New Hampshire, while many Americans were engulfed in Game 7 of the World Series. The Texas Governor was unusually animated, and at times even a bit effeminate and came across in a way that raised a lot of eyebrows. After clips of the speech mysteriously showed up on YouTube this past week, speculation was rife with rumors that Perry was drunk, had a reaction to painkillers, or something else along those lines. Whatever the truth is (and I find it hard to believe after having seen it that the man was totally sober), there were some devastating moments that could be used against Perry in political ads and certainly gives credence to my long-standing theory that he would be a disaster as a national candidate.

However, the Perry speech incident, and his campaign's original stance of outright denying that he was in any way under the influence, was surpassed by the revelation in The Politico, that Cain had been accused by two women of sexual harassment in the 1990s, when he was the head of the National Restaurant Association.

While they apparently had ten days notice of such a story being worked on, the Cain campaign reacted to the story being posted as if they were caught completely off-guard and almost a textbook example of not to react to a scandal. While I have always felt that Cain is not truly a legitimate contender for the GOP nomination, the nature of the allegations and of the campaign reaction have to be troubling. Still though, I think it is fair to point out that the story by The Politico appeared to be rushed and thinly sourced. Thus many conservatives, including those who might not necessarily support Cain, have rushed to his defense, and apparently helped him raise a lot of money this past week in an anti-liberal media backlash. The entire concept of a black conservative male being painted as a sexual deviant is also quite combustible.

Nobody can really say for certainty what the truth is to these allegations, which now have included a third woman, but a short-termed rallying around effect aside, with the likes of Rush Limbaugh vigorously defending Cain, I believe will not continue forever and this will eventually take it's toll.

After first saying he knew nothing about the allegations, Herman Cain said on the very same day that he was indeed falsely accused of sexual harassment back in the '90s. He denied anything tawdry and said that he merely made a comment about a co-worker's height that she must have found offensive. The details of these allegations are continuing to remain secret under a non-disclosure arrangement that the trade group worked out at the time, in which the women were paid hefty amounts of money to leave their jobs and remain silent. As the week progressed, there have been whispers that Cain's behavior towards women were far more serious that he has let on and that the true nature of the allegations would cripple his candidacy. An Iowa radio host has even said that Cain made inappropriate comments towards females on the station's staff.

Whether Cain is a sleazy cad or just a bit of an old-school compliment giver of the ladies may be up in the air, but this genuinely turned into a media feeding frenzy this week, complete with the candidate losing his temper with the media as cameras rolled. I feel the most bad for Gloria Cain, the candidate's long-time wife, who has been basically invisible from the campaign trail. Perhaps none of this will really matter next year, after Cain begins his new career on radio, on television, or on the book tour circuit.

More explosive than the allegations itself was the issue of the "blame game." Who was the source for the story? Was it just genuine investigative journalism? Did the White House or Democrats play a role? Another GOP campaign? Who had the most motivation to try to "take down" the surging in the polls candidacy of Herman Cain?

Well, the campaign has apparently put all the blame on that of rival Rick Perry and his organization. Recently, Perry had hired some new operatives who have been said to be quite willing to get down and dirty in the game of politics. Cain campaign chief Mark Block, who is now basically a household name in political circles, with or without his cigarette, went on Fox News and demanded that Perry apologize to Cain, his family, and America. Their theory was that a recently hired pollster on the Perry campaign, had worked for Cain in his unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, and that Cain had revealed the fact that he had been accused of wrongdoing.

The Perry operative flatly demanded that he had anything to do with the story and Block later backed off a direct finger pointing but still said they believed the Perry people were responsible. A Perry spokesman has denied all involvement, but tried to deflect suspicion towards the campaign of Mitt Romney. While officials with the National Restaurant Association may be Romney contributors, it is hard to see why Romney would want to hurt Cain in a way right now that would benefit the better resourced and funded Perry (unless they were counting on Cain surging from the sympathy factor.....)

All this talk of scandal has continued to deflect upon some of Cain's other weaknesses as a candidate. While I believe he is an intelligent and well-intentioned man, he is strongly unprepared for the Presidency. His attempts to answer tough policy questions in interviews, especially while spending much of this past week in the Beltway, is almost painful at times. The latest brouhaha involves a statement Cain made in which it appeared that he did not realize that China already had nuclear weapons.

So, with Perry and Cain having some serious long-term problems, and with Newt Gingrich, not really being in a strong position to capitalize too much, I am still thinking that Mitt Romney is on the way to a fairly easy path to the GOP nomination after the voting begins in just two short months. It has to be pointed out that he has yet to spend a single penny on any radio or television ads this cycle.

It is true that many conservatives have problems with Romney, and point to previous moderate to liberal positions he held on some issues as a candidate and officeholder in Massachusetts and the overall meme, unfair or not, that he is a "flip-flopper" without core convictions. Others will say that Romney's biography and demeanor make him a perfect caricature of the "greedy Wall Street type" which so many are protesting these days.

I could go on for paragraphs trying to dispute these charges, but I am sure they will all be focused on in the weeks and months ahead. Romney, like all politicians, has his weak spots, he remains easily the best choice for my party, financially, organizationally, politically, ideologically, and substantively to go up against Barack Obama, defeat him, and make America even greater as President.

I can hardly wait to see how this next year develops.

NFL Week 9

2011-11-03T07:00:00.002-05:00

Overall Results: 59-57 (51%)

1. Dolphins (0-7) at Chiefs (4-3)
2. Falcons (4-3) at Colts (0-8)
3. Buccaneers (4-3) at Saints (5-3)
4. Jets (4-3) at Bills (5-2)
5. Seahawks (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4)
6. Browns (3-4) at Texans (5-3)
7. 49'ers (6-1) at Redskins (3-4)
8. Bengals (5-2) at Titans (4-3)
9. Broncos (2-5) at Raiders (4-3)
10. Giants (5-2) at Patriots (5-2)
11. Rams (1-6) at Cardinals (1-6)
12. Packers (7-0) at Chargers (4-3)
13. Ravens (5-2) at Steelers (6-2)
14. Bears (4-3) at Eagles (3-4)

NFL Week 8 Results

2011-11-01T06:52:00.002-05:00

1. Cardinals (1-5) at Ravens (4-2)- Won 1
2. Vikings (1-6) at Panthers (2-5)- Won 2
3. Jaguars (2-5) at Texans (4-3)- Won 3
4. Dolphins (0-6 ) at Giants (4-2)- Loss 1
5. Saints (5-2) at Rams (0-6)- Won 4
6. Colts (0-7) at Titans (3-3)- Won 5
7. Lions (5-2) at Broncos (2-4)- Loss 2
8. Redskins (3-3) vs Bills (4-2) in Toronto, Ontario- Won 6
9. Bengals (4-2) at Seahawks (2-4)- Won 7
10. Browns (3-3) at 49'ers (5-1)- Loss 3
11. Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (5-2)- Won 8
12. Cowboys (3-3) at Eagles (2-4)- Won 9
13. Chargers (4-2) at Chiefs (3-3)- Won 10

Week 13 Results: 10-3 (77%)
Overall Results: 59-57 (51%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-10-29T18:16:00.003-05:00

Later this evening, the Des Moines Register will release poll results for January's Republican Precinct Caucuses. Based upon the historical accuracy of the newspaper's polls and the ultra-important status placed on the Hawkeye State as the first contest in the nation, the numbers are highly anticipated as a snapshot of where the race there now stands. What happens in Iowa, right after New Year's Day 2012, will have a tremendous influence on the early contests that follow and will show if any candidate is able to capitalize on a strong showing or if the nomination contest will be a short one.

At one point, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann was considered the front-runner in Iowa, and she won the important Ames Straw Poll. Since that point though, it has been nothing but down arrows for her campaign as she has been eclipsed first by Rick Perry, and now among Tea Party supporters by Herman Cain, who has moved ahead of both Bachmann and Perry. One Tea Party group is even calling for Bachmann to exit the race.

While many conservatives have moved back and forth between Bachmann, Perry, and Cain, particularly in regards to the "anti-Mitt Romney alternative" others like Rick Santorum remain stalled in neutral and Jon Huntsman is not even a factor for the Tea Party vote. The one candidate with a somewhat significant level of niche support that remains steady continues to be Ron Paul, who based on that fact can probably expect to finish between third and fifth in every contest he appears. Paul made some news which could potentially have an impact down the road by saying on a Fox News program that he would not rule out a third party or independent White House bid for the general election. Paul, who is retiring from Congress did not support the Republican candidate in the 2008 elections and this year may see the same thing, although perhaps he might be mindful of causing problems for his son, GOP Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky.

Mitt Romney continues to steadily inch along, raising money, gathering endorsements, and leading primary polls released this week by CNN in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. While the national GOP contest between Romney and Cain continues to be tight at the moment, the early states will have the far greatest impact on who is nominated. Additionally, Romney continues to poll by far, the strongest against Barack Obama, both nationally and in the states.

Cain appears to still have the edge over Perry and the others in regards to the alternative to the establishment front-runner, but as weak as the Texas Governor is as a candidate, he may eventually re-claim that spot by default. His campaign cash and operation is just far more significant than that of the upstart Cain.

Perry could have had a week in which the attention was squarely based on his newly revealed 20 percent "flat tax" proposal , but instead Perry stepped on his own media headlines by answering an interview question in a way that brought back the "birther" issue related to where Obama was born and if he is eligible to be President. By the end of the week, Perry said he had "no doubt" as to the incumbent's eligibility, but the fact that Perry seemed to coyly bring up the issue as something "fun" to poke Obama with and cited the doubts of Donald Trump caused Perry to mangle his economic message.

Also this week, the Perry campaign seemed to say that their candidate would wind up skipping many of the upcoming primary debates. Perry's debate performances have been widedly criticized but it is hard to see how he might eventually be considered seriously for the nomination if he content with dodging debates and admitting that they just are not his thing. By the end of the week again, Perry commented on the stories by saying that he had not yet made up his mind as to how often he would continue to debate, but held out hope that he might wind up being a "good debator" by the time they are all over.

In the meantime, Herman Cain continues to look like a contender despite a series of gaffes and a seeming pride in not having knowledge on all national issues. As a conservative, I think the appeal that many of my fellow folks on the right are finding with Cain is based on what they think is his "winning personality" and "convinctions" and not any sort of general sense that he is completely prepared to be President. I would say that such an attitude is both misguided, but also proof that conservatives are by and large not racist, despite what many on the left would want people to believe, and in fact, these right-wingers are willing to give every possible benefit of the doubt to a black candidate who thinks like they do. If Herman Cain were a white radio talk show host/businessman who had never won an election, I believe the appeal would be far less limited.

Cain , despite running for President, continues to give paid speeches and takes part in book signings. He has spent as much time lately in Alabama and Texas as in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire. His campaign will say that he is embarked on a "50 state strategy", but instead I think it shows that the candidate knows he is not going to be President, but is embarked on a national branding campaign.

With his sudden political rise though, Cain has been the subject of increasingly negative media stories such as a piece that claims that staffers are advised to not speak to the candidate unless spoken to. The Cain campaign has also blamed some of his misstatements on being tired and said the candidate, who is a Stage Four cancer survivor might take things a bit slower on the campaign trail.

The most intriguing political story of the week though had to have involved a Cain campaign internet ad, which some proclaim as brilliant but most others say may have been the worst campaign ad ever produced.

In the ad, Mark Block, the Cain campaign's "Chief of Staff" is seen addressing the camera, speaking about the success of the campaign, complete with some vigorous head movements. As the ad ends, a campaign jingle of sorts begins to play, as Block looks in the camera and takes a drag off a cigarette. A serious looking Cain is then shown, who slowly breaks into a broad smile as the music plays out.

The ad, which has since gone viral, is likely to be discussed in Political Science and advertising courses in years to come. It may be quite amateurish, and symbolic of the minor league nature of the Cain candidacy, but it has at least gotten people talking.

NFL Week 8

2011-10-27T06:55:00.003-05:00

Overall Results: 49-54 (48%)

1. Cardinals (1-5) at Ravens (4-2)
2. Vikings (1-6) at Panthers (2-5)
3. Jaguars (2-5) at Texans (4-3)
4. Dolphins (0-6 ) at Giants (4-2)
5. Saints (5-2) at Rams (0-6)
6. Colts (0-7) at Titans (3-3)
7. Lions (5-2) at Broncos (2-4)
8. Redskins (3-3) vs Bills (4-2) in Toronto, Ontario
9. Bengals (4-2) at Seahawks (2-4)
10. Browns (3-3) at 49'ers (5-1)
11. Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (5-2)
12. Cowboys (3-3) at Eagles (2-4)
13. Chargers (4-2) at Chiefs (3-3)

NFL Week 7 Results

2011-10-25T06:58:00.002-05:00

1. Chargers (4-1) at Jets (3-3)- Loss 1
2. Bears (3-3) vs. Buccaneers (4-2) -in London, England- Won 1
3. Redskins (3-2) at Panthers (1-5)- Won 2
4. Falcons (3-3) at Lions (5-1)- Won 3
5. Seahawks (2-3) at Browns (2-3)- Won 4
6. Broncos (1-4) at Dolphins (0-5)- Won 5
7. Texans (3-3) at Titans (3-2)- Loss 2
8. Chiefs (2-3) at Raiders (4-2)- Won 6
9. Steelers (4-2) at Cardinals (1-4)- Won 7
10. Packers (6-0) at Vikings (1-5)- Loss 3
11. Rams (0-5) at Cowboys (2-3)- Loss 4
12. Colts (0-6) at Saints (4-2)- Loss 5
13. Ravens (4-1) at Jaguars (1-5)- Won 8

Week 7 Results: 8-5 (62%)
Overall Results: 49-54 (48%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-10-22T21:10:00.003-05:00

Going to rush thru this week's post.....

Democrats:

The week saw Democrats with a couple things to be happy about while others were perhaps shocked once again by tremendously overheated political rhetoric.

On a couple of occasions now, Joe Biden has used rape and other crime analogies while pushing passage of the Administration's job bill. This week, Biden said passage would make the difference in whether or not rapes or murders will occur, and said that he wished opponents of the bill "had the notion" to be raped or shot. I cannot adequately express how disgusting and beneath the offices of President and Vice President such rhetoric is, but I believe we will be seeing a lot of it over the next year. In their reelection campaign, Joe Biden is likely to make Spiro Agnew look like a Girl Scout when it comes to rhetorical bashing of opponents and their motives.

Supporters of the incumbents rejoiced though over some genuine good news for America and the world. Moamar Gaddafi is dead, killed brutally at the hands of his own people, while cell phone videos captured the carnage and television and newspapers around the world published images of his dead body.

While this result took several months longer than the Administration promised it would, I will give them the appropriate amount of credit for adopting a policy of regime change in Libya. The role the United States plays in NATO cannot be denied, but while I think it is appropriate for Barack Obama to get some international credit for the revolution in Libya succeeding (though we do not know what is likely to replace the old dictator), I do not think he deserves as much as he did for the U.S. military offing of Osama bin Laden. The stated policy of the U.S. in regards to Libya was to "lead from behind", while the British and the French did the heavy lifting. Since that seems to have happened, I think they probably deserve the lion's share of the credit, but more importantly than who gets a pat on the back is the hope that the region of the world will move towards greater security and freedom. It remains to be seen if the death of Gaddafi will signify a move forward or a move backward.

Do not get me wrong, I am glad the tyrant is dead. I remember first hearing of him over 25 years ago as someone who might cause war to confront the USA. He certainly also had his chances to prolong his life by accepting exile to another country but he chose to fight and die in his own country. I have to admit though to feeling a bit uneasy over the images of his death and how little comment there has been of the bluntness of it in the United States. There was of course no trial for Gaddafi, but simply a quick execution and a public humiliation of his corpse. Again, I feel no sympathy for him, but I do believe that had a Republican been President, and the U.S. played a role, no matter how indirect in the killing, there would be cries of how we took part in an international travesty. The fact that upon hearing of his death, the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was caught proclaiming before rolling television cameras, "We came, we saw, he died!" is amazingly undignified and undiplomatic in my view. Had an official of the Bush Administration made such a comment in regards to Saddam Hussein or any other international figure, there would be calls for resignation.

Yesterday, Barack Obama took to the White House Briefing Room and stated that all U.S. troops will be leaving Iraq by the end of this year. The Administration seems more than willing to cite the deaths of bin Laden and Gaddafi as somehow related to the ability to pull out of Iraq, even though the words "victory" are never used. It is true of course that Obama campaigned on ending the war in Iraq, and while many of his supporters expected this announcement to have come about three years ago, as a candidate for reelection, the incumbent may now very well be able to proclaim "Mission Accomplished."

I think it is tremendously good news that so many of our men and women in uniform will be home with their families this holiday. They deserve a world of praise for the jobs they have done. It is true that the situation in Iraq does appear to be far more stable than it was a few short years ago (and yes, the Bush Administration "surge" policy, after years of disappointment over the scene there has to be credited with turning the tide) but I hope we are doing the right thing in leaving so rapidly at once. If the situation once again deteriorates and the Iraqi government because unstable, or terrorism flourishes in Iraq, we are just going to have to wind up going right back in.

It is my hope that the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq is the studied and careful recommendation of the United States Armed Forces Commanders, and not a political move designed to drum up ratings or the result of failed negotiations between the U.S. and Iraqi governments over immunity from Iraqi prosecution of American military personnel.

Almost all of the GOP Presidential candidates have expressed concern over yesterday's announcement and I think it deserves to be part of the national debate next year in the general election. In the meantime, I do think it is possible that the Iraq news, along with the death of Gaddafi, might give Obama a small bump in public opinion polls. However, unless the U.S. economy miraculously rebounds in a big way, it will be short-lived.

Republicans-

It was another busy week for those hoping to take on Obama, highlighted by Tuesday night's CNN debate in Las Vegas that was notable for a good deal of political fireworks and bickering. Newt Gingrich received plaudits from many in the party by expressing concern over how the debate sponsors cultivate such a scene and how certain candidates fall into it, but as much as I want to see Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment honored, the truth is that in recent decades, Presidential primaries, and debates in particular, also get quite nasty at times. I have a suspicion that once a Republican is formally nominated, most of these heated moments and hard feelings will be a thing of the past.

I actually thought Michele Bachmann had one of her stronger debate performances and thought that perhaps she would once again get a chance to make some noise in the polls. However, it seems as if her campaign is just fatally wounded beyond all recovery. Yesterday, her entire paid staff in New Hampshire quit. It appears that if she is to even stay in the race, she will need to focus on Iowa and Iowa alone, much like Jon Huntsman and the damaged campaign he has going for him is only able to try to compete in New Hampshire. It does seem like a primary schedule has been set, with Nevada agreeing to wait until February 4th to vote. It appears that Iowa will ring off the New Year with a January 2 Caucus date, while the New Hampshire Primary will occur on January 10.

Herman Cain continues to show strength in the polls and has gotten much media attention. However the increased scrutiny that comes with being a "frontrunner" has perhaps damaged him some. I do not think his debate performance on Tuesday was very strong. Questions about the specifics and implications of his 9-9-9 program continue to abound, and he struggled at times to explain the plan adequately. Additionally, on that very same day, he made comments during a CNN interview that I think should be absolutely disqualifying. He said that he could envision presiding over a deal as President, similar to the unfortunate choice Israel is sometimes confronted with, to swap prisoners. He said it was possible that he would give in to Al Qaeda demands to empty Guantanamo Bay in exchange for a hypothetical American hostage. Later on, he said he would never negotiate with terrorists, and that he misspoke earlier in the day or did not fully understand the question. Whatever happened, it shown a tremendous amount of "not ready for prime time" in regards to the notion that Cain actually could or should be President.

Others made much this past week over remarks from last weekend in which Cain said that he would put up an electrical fence on the Mexican border with a sign saying "It Will Kill You." On Meet the Press this past Sunday, he said he was just joking about the sign, but apparently not the electric fence.

Perhaps most damaging of all to Cain politically are the completely contradictory statements he made over abortion. While he has said throughout the campaign that he believes abortion should be illegal under all circumstances, on a Fox News interview this week, he stated a position about how a decision is ultimately up to a woman and her family that made him sound like a pro-choice politician. He had to backtrack and confirm that he sees himself as anti-abortion as a matter of policy, but it was another example of how Cain is making things very difficult for himself.

Polls out this week show the slide for Rick Perry continues. While the candidate is now rolling out a Steve Forbes inspired "flat tax" plan, he is now running as bad as fifth or sixth in the crucial early states, well behind Cain and Mitt Romney in them, as well as nationally.

In Tuesday's debate, he needed to do something to try to change the narrative back to being a "Romney vs. Perry" storyline, and he was intent on going after Romney with both barrels. While some say that the more animated Perry gave one of his better debate performances yet, the consensus of most Republicans was that he badly misfired in dredging up an old story about Romney hiring illegals to work on his lawn, back when he was a candidate for Governor. This had been brought up in a debate back in the 2008 cycle, and Romney had explained he merely had hired a lawn service company that was found to have illegals working for it and that he later stopped using them. I would say that the facts of the matter mean that it is more accurate to say that Romney was the customer of a business that used illegal immigrants, rather than their employer or job creator. Even Republicans who dislike Romney, thought it was a particularly unfair and cheap shot to cast in the debate, and it just opened himself up to counters from Romney about Perry's own record on immigration, which his campaign obviously recognizes has done damages.

So, while Perry and Romney fought with each other in the debate over immigration, health care, and other matters, other candidates such as Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich also tried to go after the once again GOP frontrunner. Some will say that Romney finally took some punches in the debates, but the conventional wisdom is that he defended himself pretty well in the exchanges and came away with having bested everyone who attempted to bring it to him on the stage.

It is also true that Romney appeared angered and frustrated with his opponents and their attempts to interrupt or speak over him. He fired back with some personal barbs of his own against Rick Perry and at one point even put his hand on his rival's shoulder to try to get him to stop speaking. Some might say that it is proof that Romney, whom Saturday Night Live lampooned as a candidate "incapable of rage" can be rattled and pissy.

While I think it is true that he probably has a bit of a temper, as most successful politicians do (even Ronald Reagan), I also think there was some method in the internal decision in his head to let himself be angry and be seen as angry with the cameras rolling. Conservative voters tend to like the feisty "non-robotic" side of Mitt and if he can make himself look a bit more "human" by yelling red-faced at an opponent and basically telling them to shut up in a way that would make his new supporter Chris Christie proud, so be it.

NFL Week 7

2011-10-20T06:56:00.002-05:00

Overall Results: 41-49 (46%)

1. Chargers (4-1) at Jets (3-3)
2. Bears (3-3) vs. Buccaneers (4-2) -in London, England
3. Redskins (3-2) at Panthers (1-5)
4. Falcons (3-3) at Lions (5-1)
5. Seahawks (2-3) at Browns (2-3)
6. Broncos (1-4) at Dolphins (0-5)
7. Texans (3-3) at Titans (3-2)
8. Chiefs (2-3) at Raiders (4-2)
9. Steelers (4-2) at Cardinals (1-4)
10. Packers (6-0) at Vikings (1-5)
11. Rams (0-5) at Cowboys (2-3)
12. Colts (0-6) at Saints (4-2)
13. Ravens (4-1) at Jaguars (1-5)

NFL Week 6 Results

2011-10-18T07:02:00.002-05:00

1. 49'ers (4-1) at Lions (5-0)- Won 1
2. Rams (0-4) at Packers (5-0)- Loss 1
3. Panthers (1-4) at Falcons (2-3)- Loss 2
4. Colts (0-5) at Bengals (3-2)- Won 2
5. Bills (4-1) at Giants (3-2)- Loss 3
6. Jaguars (1-4) at Steelers (3-2)- Won 3
7. Eagles (1-4) at Redskins (3-1)- Won 4
8. Texans (3-2) at Ravens (3-1)- Loss 4
9. Browns (2-2) at Raiders (3-2)- Loss 5
10. Cowboys (2-2) at Patriots (4-1)- Won 5
11. Saints (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-2)- Won 6
12. Vikings (1-4) at Bears (2-3)- Won 7
13. Dolphins (0-4) at Jets (2-3)- Loss 6

Week 6 Results: 7-6 (54%)
Overall Results: 41-49 (46%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-10-15T20:09:00.002-05:00

Democrats-

As if things were not bad enough for the Obama reelection effort, we learned this week that both Hulk Hogan and Amber Ettinger, the 2008 "Obama Girl" have become disillusioned with the performance of the incumbent and are among those who voted for him in his first run, but who are now open to seriously considering an alternative choice. Along those lines, while the reelection effort is certain to be extremely well-funded, Obama's cash haul this last quarter was less then expected.

Also this week, both Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were asked during television interviews if a plan was possible that would have them switching jobs, allowing an Obama-Clinton ticket to be nominated next summer at Charlotte. Both denied that is even a remote possibility, so Obama-Biden it appears likely to be, even though some Democrats may be disappointed that Hillary will not be in the #2 spot on the ticket, or for that matter the #1 spot.

Meanwhile, Democrats wonder what kind of approach to take to the increasing in media attention "Occupy Wall Street" movement, that has also spread to other cities. Many on the left feel that these protests will increase visibility and energy for the party ahead of next year's campaign, while others correctly realize the inherent danger of getting too close to that group of nutjobs. This could be a potentially combustible situation for the party if their support, no matter how tacit, can be linked to political extremism or any potential acts of violence or lawlessness.

Republicans-

Since last week, Mitt Romney, while either tied or behind in national polls, appears closer than ever to the nomination. A month or so ago, it looked like a fierce battle for the GOP nod was brewing between Romney and Rick Perry, but now, it has to be seen that while comebacks are always possible in politics, the Perry campaign has imploded in one of the most spectacular ways in American history. In fact, while I was saying for months that Perry was overrated for a politician and could be in for an extremely bumpy ride on the national stage, I never quite saw it happening this dramatically.

The field now appears to be pretty formally set, as Rudy Giuliani, the Republican who looked like the front-runner at this time four years ago, and whom one poll this cycle still had as the strongest against Obama, quietly announced that it was too late for him and he would not be running. In the meantime, the one time highly touted campaigns of Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman appear to be in dire straits, financially and organizationally. While Herman Cain and to a lesser extent Newt Gingrich (one thought of as politically D.O.A.) have risen in the polls, both Bachmann and Huntsman are further back in the pack. They have also both faced staff turnovers, reports of campaign discord, and have seen national campaign headquarters closed in cost-cutting measures. The suburban D.C. based campaign of the Minnesota Congresswoman has now centered operations in Iowa, while the one time Florida based national campaign of the former Utah Governor is now focusing exclusively on New Hampshire. Perhaps trying to pander to New Hampshire voters who hold pride in their status of holding the "First in the Nation" primary, Huntsman is boycotting next week's upcoming CNN debate in Nevada.

Since last week, Herman Cain has risen even higher in the polls, while Rick Perry continues to fall behind. The one time Texan frontrunner appears to be running third or fourth now in Iowa, and even worse in New Hampshire, where he does not even registers outside the margin of error at about 2 percent. I will still say that Perry cannot be completely counted out due to his campaign's deep pockets, but it keeps getting worse and worse for him out there. An economic debate this past week in New Hampshire was supposed to show a strong candidate, intent on turning his campaign around, but he seemed to disappear from parts of it , and came across as more of an afterthought as Romney and Cain seemed to dominate the discussion. The reveal of Perry's energy policy during a Pittsburgh speech yesterday was overshadowed in the media by his wife's complaints about how tough a month it has been for them and how she feels her husband has been attacked because of his faith. That is an odd way of looking at it, considering it was a Perry supporter who introduced faith into the campaign, when he called her husband's main competitor a member of a cult.

All the while, the Cain Train seems to be gaining more speed as people look at him and start to speculate that he could actually be nominated and become President. The political appeal of Herman Cain is impressive and real in many ways, but I still maintain that without much of an organization or money, he is not even going to come close to actually challenging Romney for the nod, even if Cain were to somehow win Iowa in January. While it is true, that the Cain campaign appears to have been staffing up a bit more in the wake of the national, Iowa, and South Carolina polls showing him either tied with Romney or ahead, which would signify that the candidate might actually run for President at the extent of conducting a successful book tour, I think eventually increased scrutiny on Cain and his ever present 9-9-9 economic plan will stop his momentum. That just may take a few more weeks. When that time eventually comes, it may be Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry once again who will look like the newest version of the "anti-Romney option" or those GOP voters may just decide opposing Romney is a lost cause.

Nonetheless, influential talk radio icon Rush Limbaugh, who along with others in the medium, were openly supportive of Romney's last Presidential campaign as the best conservative option, now seem to be doing everything they can to stop him. On the airwaves this week, Limbaugh, who says he will support any eventual GOP nominee, basically called Romney a "RINO" and a "liberal" and made the illogical assumption that the White House, which does seem to be focusing on Romney, wants to run against him, because he would be the easiest to beat, because he can be tied to Wall Street. It is complete hypocrisy on behalf of El Rushbo and his proteges, such as Mark Levin, who urged conservatives to support Romney four years ago, but now, feel his nomination and Presidency would be disastrous for conservatism. As someone who used to listen frequently to Limbaugh, since I was a freshman in High School, this may have been the week he finallly "jumped the shark" for me.

Moving back to Cain, the simplicity of his 9-9-9 plan is appealing to many on the right, but a closer examination of the details, by the other candidates, and by the media, might take some luster away from it. People from my ideological persuasion love the plan-speaking, direct style of Cain, and I can see why, but that does not mean he should be President. While I think he would make a better President than Barack Obama in every way imaginable, I happen to care very deeply about foreign policy and national security and I cannot think of another major candidate in either party who ever appeared in line to be nominated who had less experience in and perhaps less knowledge of those issues. I still think it is smarter for Romney to allow the Cain thing to continue to stay at the surface, at the political expense of any perceived Perry comeback for as long as possible.

Many now feel, especially after the last debate, in which he was seen as having perhaps his strongest showing in a series of impressive debate performances, that Romney's nomination is close to a done deal. As an ardent supporter, I want to take nothing for granted, but it is hard for me, as a political observer, to see a political path for anyone else to stop him. It is very possible that the nomination could be formally sewed up extremely early into the 2012 calender year.

Just over a week ago, many Republicans looked to Chris Christie as a potential savior, but just seven days after declining to run once again, the Governor of New Jersey traveled to New Hampshire, stood beside the former Governor of Massachusetts, and offered an enthusiastic endorsement. Christie used his political spotlight during the week to take to the airwaves and defend Romney, while forcefully firing back at Perry's anti-Mormon pastor friend, as well as those who claim that "Romneycare" is the same as Obamacare. Even if Tuesday night's debate for Romney did not go as well as it did, the Christie endorsement would have been seen as the major headline of the day, and it did eclipse reports that stated how Romney advisers had met with Obama to discuss health care.

There is and will continue to be talk for a while about how "weak" Romney appears, since he cannot come close to blowing away the field in national polls. It is certainly true that there is a large segment of Republican voters who are holding out for someone other than Romney, but if when the voting starts, the candidate piles up win after win,and clinches it easily, none of that will really be remembered.

Right now, Herman Cain appears to be a formidable challenge to Romney's nomination, but I consider that to be far less than meets the eye, and I do not expect the two candidates to be really all that intent on going after another I also think Cain knows he will ultimately not be the nominee). I would attribute the strong showing of Cain in current polls to a phenomenon of highly motivated, attuned conservative voters who like what they see and hear from him, (though I think his debate comments in regards to admiring Alan Greenspan as Fed Chair so much was a politically damaging thing to say), but even most of them really do not think he should be President or nominated to be President. If anything, it's a symbolic statement of skepticism at this point on Romney's conservative bona fides.

As we get closer to voting though, more and more non political junkies will be joining the process and they will be looking for who seems to be best prepared to take on Obama and win, and who is best prepared to serve as President.

NFL Week 6

2011-10-13T06:55:00.002-05:00

Overall Results: 34-43 (44%)

1. 49'ers (4-1) at Lions (5-0)
2. Rams (0-4) at Packers (5-0)
3. Panthers (1-4) at Falcons (2-3)
4. Colts (0-5) at Bengals (3-2)
5. Bills (4-1) at Giants (3-2)
6. Jaguars (1-4) at Steelers (3-2)
7. Eagles (1-4) at Redskins (3-1)
8. Texans (3-2) at Ravens (3-1)
9. Browns (2-2) at Raiders (3-2)
10. Cowboys (2-2) at Patriots (4-1)
11. Saints (4-1) at Buccaneers (3-2)
12. Vikings (1-4) at Bears (2-3)
13. Dolphins (0-4) at Jets (2-3)

NFL Week 5 Results

2011-10-11T07:01:00.002-05:00

1. Cardinals (1-3) at Vikings (0-4)- Won 1
2. Raiders (2-2) at Texans (3-1)- Loss 1
3. Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)- Won 2
4. Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)- Won 3
5. Saints (3-1) at Panthers (1-3)- Loss 2
6. Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)- Won 4
7. Titans (3-1) at Steelers (2-2)- Loss 3
8. Seahawks (1-3) at Giants (3-1)- Won 5
9. Buccaneers (3-1) at 49'ers (3-1)- Loss 4
10. Chargers (3-1) at Broncos (1-3)- Loss 5
11. Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1)- Loss 6
12. Packers (4-0) at Falcons (2-2)- Loss 7
13. Bears (2-2) at Lions (4-0)- Loss 8

Week 5 Results: 5-8 (38%)
Overall Results: 34-43 (44%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-10-08T22:01:00.002-05:00

It has been a very long week filled with much political news, and I have been busy today with many things, among them, observing the High Holiday of Yom Kippur, so I do not really have much motivation at the moment to write a cogent narrative in a semi-proper format. Thus, I am just going to take a bit of a blogging short-cut and name some folks and give some random bullet points in regards to what happened to them this week. I am certain that there is going to be some stuff that I would mention that I will neglect to do so.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden- while the person at the top of the ticket once again reached a new job approval low in the daily Gallup tracking poll, his running-mate and Vice President continued to execute a lack of discipline with his mouth. Late in the week, Biden stated in response to a question, with a tone that was almost boastful that the Republican Party was strong enough to beat "both" of them. Apparently, he was referring to him and Obama, which was a curious way to respond as if there were a possibility that the ticket could be split up (putting aside a tied Electoral College leading to different Houses of Congress voting for a President and Vice President on different tickets) or that somehow people want to reelect him as Vice President. but are not sure on Obama.

He went on to say that people were unhappy and would blame the incumbent party whether they deserve it or not. Either this is part of a strategy that has the Democrats wanting people to think they are likely to lose, or more likely, Biden just cannot help himself. He is going to be quite entertaining to watch campaigning across America in the months ahead.

Side-note , what effect are these goofy left wing anti-capitalist protesters, who have been making a lot of noise in New York and in other major cities across America going to have on the race? Are they the left's answer to the Tea Party or are they just your typical spoiled rich kids who are now angry at rich people, but really cannot articulate what they are protesting? If I had more time and energy, I would have more to say on them, but I will leave it alone for now.

Chris Christie- he ended all speculation by saying that while he did consider his many previous no statements, he is not going to run for President, and will stay as Governor of New Jersey. This was no great surprise to me, but a tremendous disappointment to many Christie fans such as the columnist Bill Kristol. Perhaps the Governor, who is still under 50, will have another chance someday down the road, but he probably would need to lose a lot of weight first. I do think he would be a very likely Attorney General of the United States for a Republican President.

Sarah Palin- no great surprise to me or most others either, but she finally made it official in saying she will not run for the Presidency. Many of her most ardent online supporters reacted with shock and disgust. What were they expecting? Sarah Palin will continue to be a big name on the national scene, but now that the possibility of her seeking the highest office in the land this cycle is over, she may have to fight even more for the headlines down the road. It is worth noting that she is the first person on a losing national ticket to not seek the Presidency since Jack Kemp did not run in 2000. While it is possible she may run sometime down the road, for now she joins Dick Cheney and Geraldine Ferraro as the only major party candidates ever to be nominated for the Vice Presidency to have never also sought the Presidency in almost 40 years.

So, with Christie and Palin both out, the field is basically set, right? What was that I heard on the network news the other day about Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma looking at things? Probably nothing, since I did not see or hear it repeated anywhere, so unless Rudy Giuliani does something sudden, I will say the field is pretty much set.

Gary Johnson- what did he do this week, besides maybe get high?

Buddy Roemer- I read a blurb this week about his expressing solidarity with the far-left Wall Street protesters. If taking such a position like that will not get his name in the news, nothing will.

Rick Santorum- Had a reasonably impressive third place finish today at the Values Voters Summit Straw Poll in Washington D.C., but he is rapidly losing his chance to become the "Anti-Romney Flavor of the Month."

Michele Bachmann- did pretty poorly in that same straw poll, despite her urging conservatives not to "settle" on someone else who may not be as conservative as her. Even with the Palin question now off the scene, it just seems like Republicans who might have once considered supporting Bachmann have just moved on, presently to Herman Cain.

Ron Paul- he easily won the big Value Voters Straw Poll, proving his recent losing streak at straw polls was just an aberration. How did he do that? There must have been internet voting allowed. I have a strong feeling that if the voting was limited just to those who were attending in person, Herman Cain would have easily won.

Jon Huntsman- was the one major candidate to not attend the Values Voters event. He would not have gotten many votes if he did, but perhaps might have been pressured to give a firm answer as to if he is or is not a Mormon. When he was running in Utah, he very much identified himself as a Mormon, which most political figures in the state are, but as a Presidential candidate, he has given carefully worded responses to interview questions which make it appear that he no longer formally considers himself a member of the church.

Newt Gingrich- came in last at the Value Voters Straw Poll (which seems appropriate based on his personal life history) among the candidates who did attend, but still, some Republicans are pleading others to not count the Newtster out and that he can pull off a come from a back in the pack victory a la McCain 2008, or that he will at least emerge one of these weeks as the anti-Romney challenger of the moment.

I do not really think any of those things will happen, but I find it incredibly ironic how months ago, Gingrich's campaign was considered dead and buried, as his entire staff quit, presumably to eventually work for the Rick Perry Presidential campaign, and now Perry is in the race with Newt's old campaign manager managing his campaign, etc, and several state polls now are showing Gingrich ahead of Perry.

Mitt Romney- Political pundit Charlie Cook's latest column aside, he has to once again be considered a strong front-runner. An early as possible start to the political calender in Iowa and New Hampshire would only seek to benefit him. He certainly has many people very much opposed to his nomination (gotta pause to watch SNL do a Mitt sketch at this moment....good stuff, I think "boring" will carry the day in 2012.)

Anyways, polling out yesterday gives Romney a nearly insurmountable lead in New Hampshire, and with all his opponents fighting to be the alternative, the math continues to work in his favor. This week, he gave two speeches that were very well received by many conservatives. He delivered a major foreign policy speech yesterday in South Carolina, and today appeared before the Value Voters conference, in which he as expected, did not do very well in the straw poll, but perhaps came away as the big winner nonetheless, with headlines everywhere about how he was attacked for his Mormon faith.

Perhaps Romney will lose votes of any bigoted Evangelicals in the GOP who did not already know Romney was a Mormon, but I think that anybody who really cared about this was already aware, and thus Romney will benefit (especially to a general electorate) based on events, both planned and unplanned and how they will reflect on the person I still think will be his only true obstacle to the nomination; Rick Perry.

Herman Cain/Rick Perry- these two really need to be bunched in together as they seem to be competing for votes directly with each other as they vie to become the alternative to Romney. Right now, if some polls are to be believed, Cain is the national front-runner, which would mean that for the first time in American history, both major parties have African-Americans in position to face each other.

Cain has done some impressive things on the campaign trail to get where he is, and it is not out of the question that he could have a good showing in Iowa, but I do not think he is a viable candidate for the nomination. Some Perry folks might even accuse him of being in cahoots with Romney, as Cain seems to be continuing to be more critical of the Texan and of his possibility of offering strong support down the road than to Romney, whom he endorsed in 2008.

Even if Cain did come in second or even win in Iowa, I do not see how he would be able to build from that moving forward in the race, considering his lack of organization and money compared to other candidates. I think Cain is smart enough to know he is not really going to be President one day, which is why his formal campaign is a bit more like an informal book tour and branding effort. The longer that Cain appears viable though, the harder it is going to be for Perry to rebound.

Speaking of the Texas Governor, his quarterly fundraising figures were quite impressive and a reminder of all the buzz that surrounded his candidacy before the widely panned debate performances. However, two stories this week regarding Perry took up much of the political oxygen surrounding him and I think makes it more difficult to change the narrative away from the perception that Perry is unelectable in a general election.

First, the Washington Post published a story in which it was alleged that a hunting lodge that Perry and his father leased many years ago contained a rock in which a disgusting racist word appeared. The Perry campaign states that the family painted over the rock at the earliest possible time, but it remains unclear as to just how long it might have been allowed to remain there. My personal feelings are that any single day that took place where someone who had the authority to get rid of such a horrible thing but did not do so was a day too many.

I do not know just how accurate the story is, and what all the facts are, and I think it would be completely inappropriate to label Perry as a racist, but I am also a bit perturbed at the response of some of my fellow conservatives who just reflexively called the story a "liberal hit job" that was grossly unfair to Perry, without giving any consideration to as to what the facts or the overall political ramifications might be.

When asked about the story, Herman Cain said that if true, it displayed a level of racial insensitivity. Some on the right then in return got upset at Cain, feeling he fell into a liberal trap and played the race card. Many speculated that Cain criticizing Perry, along with other anti-Perry rhetoric would have the effect of stopping his momentum, to the benefit of Perry.

From the quotes I read from Cain regarding the Texas rock, I cannot find anything to criticize Cain on. I do not think he crossed the line in describing it as racially insensitive or that he unfairly accused Perry of any unproven action. It makes perfect sense to me as to why a black person (who happened to also be unfairly attacked this week by a liberal white television personality for what that white guy perceived as not being active enough in the Civil Rights Movement) would be offended by the N word. All thinking Americans should be offended by that horrible word, and I think people on the right do themselves a disservice by putting more emphasis on trying to defend Perry for something that his campaign is not even specifically denying as opposed to holding back on attacking a black man for wanting to stand up against an historically hateful word and all that it represents.

I strongly do not think the vast majority of conservatives or Republicans are racist. I think the fact that Herman Cain is doing so well presently in the polls is proof of that, but I also think that we need to a better job, as it relates to the historic use of the n word, or things such as the Confederate Flag, in realizing that not concern about bigotry and past injustices is being overly sensitive or playing of the race card.

Yesterday, the Perry campaign signed off on a pastor from a Dallas megachurch, who has endorsed Perry to introduce him. In those remarks, Pastor Jeffresss claimed that voters should chose Perry, a "born again follower of the Lord Jesus Christ" over Romney, who he declared a "good, moral man." Backstage, the pastor later stood firm by remarks he had made in the past which stated that Mormonism is a cult and that Romney, while a good man, (whom he would support over Obama) is a member of a cult.

The speech that Perry gave to the group yesterday was well received, but nobody is talking about it because of the whole brouhaha surrounding what an apparent campaign surrogate said about Mormons and cults and how he believed voters should take religion into consideration in picking a candidate. People are asking if this was raised in a deliberate way by the Perry campaign to harm Romney. I do not know if any hard evidence can be found on that, but after a first statement in which the campaign refused to denounce Jeffress's remarks, a later statement came out which stated that Perry does not believe Mormonism is a cult.

I have already typed far more than I planned, so I cannot offer full analysis on this, but this is a campaign subplot to be watched. Today, the noted conservative William Bennett harshly criticized Jeffress on stage and stated that he had the effect of overshadowing anything else that was said at the political event and that he did Governor Perry no favors. Considering the weak showing by Perry in the straw poll, (finishing far behind Paul, Cain, and Santorum), that has to be at least partly true.

When Mitt Romney took the podium, he pointedly applauded Bennett for his remarks and later on gave a warning against divisive rhetoric, specifically aimed at the person who would be taking the podium next, and who was known for making inflammatory remarks against Mormons, Muslims, and gays. It was perhaps a mini "Sister Souljah Moment" for my preferred GOP candidate, and I hope he will continue to stand up against bigotry, whether aimed at him or others.

I hope my ramblings on the week in politics will make some sense to me when I read this back one day years from now. For now, we can all look forward to the next GOP debate on Tuesday evening. It would behoove Rick Perry to be better prepared and perhaps realize that right now, Herman Cain is at least a temporary threat to him.

NFL Week 5

2011-10-06T07:02:00.002-05:00

Overall Results: 29-35 (45%)

1. Cardinals (1-3) at Vikings (0-4)
2. Raiders (2-2) at Texans (3-1)
3. Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)
4. Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)
5. Saints (3-1) at Panthers (1-3)
6. Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)
7. Titans (3-1) at Steelers (2-2)
8. Seahawks (1-3) at Giants (3-1)
9. Buccaneers (3-1) at 49'ers (3-1)
10. Chargers (3-1) at Broncos (1-3)
11. Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1)
12. Packers (4-0) at Falcons (2-2)
13. Bears (2-2) at Lions (4-0)

NFL Week 4 Results

2011-10-04T07:02:00.002-05:00

1. Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)- Won 1
2. Lions (3-0) at Cowboys (2-1)- Lost 1
3. Redskins (2-1) at Rams (0-3)- Lost 2
4. Vikings (0-3) at Chiefs (0-3)- Won 2
5. Steelers (2-1) at Texans (2-1)- Won 3
6. Saints (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2)- Loss 3
7. 49'ers (2-1) at Eagles (1-2)- Loss 4
8. Titans (2-1) at Browns (2-1)- Won 4
9. Bills (3-0) at Bengals (1-2)- Loss 5
10. Giants (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)- Loss 6
11. Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)- Won 5
12. Dolphins (0-3) at Chargers (2-1)- Won 6
13. Patriots (2-1) at Raiders (2-1)- Loss 7
14. Broncos (1-2) at Packers (3-0)- Loss 8
15. Jets (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)- Loss 9
16. Colts (0-3) at Buccaneers (2-1)- Loss 10

Week 4 Results: 6-10 (38%)
Overall Results: 29-35 (45%)

2011 Gubernatorial Races- October Update

2011-10-03T17:44:00.002-05:00

Not a lot of drama or much in the way of changes for most of these under the radar contests.

Kentucky:

Democrat Steve Beshear looks easily on his way to a second term in Frankfort. The Commonwealth may be loath to send any Democrat to Washington D.C. these days, but with rare exception, the people there tend to favor electing Democrats to statewide constitutional office. Beshear's likely landslide reelection can be attributed to the old axiom "all politics is local."

Beshear even managed to skip out last week on a debate with his Republican opponent David Williams and Independent Gatewood Galbraith, who might flirt with double digits come the November voting.

With the most recent polling showing Williams failing to even reach 30 percent, I will have to change this month's rating.

October rating: Safe Democrat

Williams campaign link:

http://williamsfarmer.com/

Louisiana:

With the filing deadline having come and gone, only four minor Democrat candidates and a small handful of Independents will be on the ballot against first term Republican incumbent Bobby Jindal, who last month endorsed his colleague from a neighboring state, Rick Perry for the Presidency.

Come October 22, Jindal should be able to easily pass the 50% mark needed for reeelction. If by some crazy occurrence, he does not, he would obviously still be a safe choice in a November runoff.

October rating: Safe Republican -Likely Final Prediction

Jindal campaign link:

http://www.bobbyjindal.com/

Mississippi:

I haven't seen or heard much about this contest in the past month, which indicates to me that Republican Phil Bryant remains on track to defeat Democrat Johnny DuPree in this southern GOP bastion. The most competitive contests in the state, like Kentucky and Louisiana appear to be down ballot for the constitutional offices.

October rating: Likely Republican

Bryant campaign link:

http://www.philbryant.com/

West Virginia:

If there is any Gubernatorial contest this year that may produce suspense, it would have to be in the Mountaineer State, which will hold it's special election tomorrow.

As of last month, acting incumbent Governor Earl Ray Tomblin, the Democrat was though to have a hefty lead over GOP challenger Bill Maloney, but that may no longer be the case.

While West Virginia sees Democrats with a traditional massive voter registration edge, the state is seen as quite anti-Obama and could be in the mood to "send a message. to his party." After I first looked at this race in September, Democrat affiliated polls were released showing Tomblin holding a lead of only 6-10 points. This morning, the Democrat leaning Public Policy Polling released numbers where Tomblin had a lead of a single point. They showed the tremendous come from behind effect that has benefited Maloney, and stated that if he had a few more weeks to campaign, he might be in great shape to win.

The fact that the national parties are spending money on the race indicates that it is very much a contest. I definitely have to revise my rating of "Likely Democrat" from last month, and while I very much hope that it is at least a tossup where Maloney can win, I have to think about the Senate election in that state last year, where the Democrat did better than the final polling indicated, and under an abundance of caution:

October rating: Leans Democrat- Final Prediction

Maloney campaign link:

http://www.maloneyforwv.com/

Race for the White House 2012

2011-10-01T14:36:00.002-05:00

As I anticipated last week, the Presidential fortunes of Rick Perry look far worse now based on both general election and primary polling. This has allowed Herman Cain, on the heels of his surprise Florida Straw Poll victory to receive attention and credibility as a potential surging candidate. Sarah Palin's plan to decide on a Presidential run "by October" has apparently come and passed without an answer, while Mike Huckabee despite some online buzz yesterday about a potential re-consideration of a bid has re-stated that he is "comfortable" about his decision to not be a candidate in 2012.

Interestingly enough, he taped a segment that will air on his Fox News weekend television show tonight featuring 2012 frontrunner and former rival Mitt Romney, who Huckabee once seemed to intensely dislike but now may favor over Perry, based on some old grudges. If Huckabee were to suddenly run, it might be seen of having the curious effect of hurting Perry and helping Romney, though Perry seems to have done a good enough job of helping himself with much of his support apparently going to Cain, who has seen polls this week where he is well ahead of Perry in the important state of Florida and nearly tied with him (and close to Romney who is back in front) nationally, according to a Fox News poll.

Previously in the year, when Cain was receiving attention, he said some things that hurt his chances, and time will tell if he will do so again. The candidate, who confirmed that he was close to dropping out of the race a couple times already this cycle before his big showing last week, made headlines by saying that many of his fellow African-Americans who support Democrats are "brainwashed" and for also declaring that if Rick Perry were to be the nominee, he would not be able to support him "today" over Perry's immigration stance. Cain did say he would be able to support Romney (as he did in the primaries four years ago) despite problems on the health care issue. While I ultimately think Cain would support any eventual GOP nominee (since I just do not believe it will be him), that kind of conditional posturing might not sit well with Republicans who want to focus on defeating Barack Obama above all else.

Before I turn to the biggest (in more ways than one) political player of the week, let's examine the past week for the Obama-Biden campaign. A good thing happened for them and for America yesterday when a prominent terrorist leader (though not exactly a household name in America) was killed by a drone attack in Yemen. I am happy whenever an Al Qaeda Islamofacist is killed, and will applaud the Administration's policy of killing them but this particular situation is a little interesting. Anwar al-Awlaki is actually an American citizen, having been born in the United States and has never been charged with any crime or act of terrorism. In fact, the cleric was once praised in American publications as a so-called "moderate" leader in the Muslim world.

While I have no doubt that he was a genuine danger to America, his specific ties to terrorist acts are a little murky and if it were the Bush-Cheney Administration that had sent a drone to kill him, instead of trying him, as an American citizen, in an American courtroom, the left would be apoplectic. There has not been much criticism of President Obama though for it, with the exception of libertarian Republican candidates Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.

Also this week, both President Obama and Vice President Biden have gotten in some political hot water for remarks they have made. Speaking before a Congressional Black Caucus event, Obama, who is now adopting the mantra that he is a "warrior for the middle class", called upon the audience members to "stop complaining" and exchange their bedroom slippers for marching shoes. This particular rhetorical flourish did not sit well with some, including California Congresswoman Maxine Waters, who said that Obama would never have made such a statement to another group of supporters, such as Hispanics and Jews.

Later on in the week, Obama was quoted as saying America had become "soft" and the notoriously undisciplined Biden made remarks in which he inferred that the economy now belonged to the incumbent Democrat Administration and not it it's Republican predecessor and that the 2012 election would be a referendum on Obama and Biden. Facing as difficult a political environment as they do, statements made by the presumptive Democrat ticket, which will be used against them, certainly cannot help.

In the meanwhile, Republicans keep attempting to gain endorsements and advantages in their race, as the primary calender picture remains quite muddled as states jockey for position (and anger others) in trying to exert their influence. It's all too complicated to go into now, but it looks increasingly likely that the first voting contest will, like four years ago, occur in the first few days of January. That can do little but help the front-runners, who all respect to Herman Cain granted, remain Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. The two of them were as aggressive as ever this week in sniping back and forth in the press and over internet ads over health care, immigration, job plans, and other things. While a month ago, Perry looked to many as being a political juggernaut who had deeply harmed the Romney campaign, the events on the trail, especially three debates, have reversed those fortunes as Perry now is the person who needs to make a comeback as Romney looks like he is back in front, in what is still a relatively early point in the process.

Polls have shown that nearly 2/3 of Republicans are satisfied with the present field, but there continues to be an attitude of "who else might be out there." With Perry, the flavor of last month now looking a bit melted, attention is once again turning in a big way to first term New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a tough-talking, labor union confronting fiscal conservative. While some of Christie's positions, if they were more well known, would not exactly thrill Republicans, many are now clamoring for him to run as the best chance to defeat Obama and usher in a new era of conservatism.

For months, Christie has adamantly declared he would not run and was not ready to be President. It seems as if he has declared non-interest in the race every couple of months at least. At the beginning of the week, the speculation started again, as Christie traveled to the Ronald Reagan Library in California to give a major policy speech. While conservatives liked most of what Christie had to say, and while some audience members practically begged him to run for President, the Governor seemed to firmly indicate that he was still not interested in running. Privately, he was said to tell donors in more blunt terms to count him out.

So, that would appear to be that, right? Well, the last couple of days have seen even more reports, citing unnamed sources and "advisers" says that Christie was once again re-considering based upon the encouragement he received in California and by things said to him and his wife recently by former First Ladies Nancy Reagan and Barbara Bush. I still remain very skeptical that Christie is seriously considering a run, but if he is, he is going to have to commit in literally a matter of days. If by next weekend, he has not stated any sort of interest, then people will really need to move on.

I do not think Christie will run because he is a smart man who cares about his family, which includes school-aged children. It might be very controversial to say, but I think that Christie's weight would raise concerns , both legitimate and not, about his ability to effectively and hypothetically serve as President, and that it would be a terrible political distraction that would be nearly impossible to overcome in the minds of many voters. I guess that makes me a "Girther."

Wrapping this up, all the speculation about Christie and the sudden acceleration of the Cain Train may indicate serious disappointment and doubts about the Perry campaign, but I remain unconvinced that they represent a long-term threat to the potential of Romney capturing the nomination or being a strong general election candidate, against an unpopular President, whom he already fares pretty well against in polls.

Some believe that Christie running would be a big blow to Romney, a fellow Northeast Governor who appeals to moderates and pro-business Republicans. Some Romney supporters might be tempted to switch to Christie at least temporarily, but I think above all else, a hypothetical candidacy by Christie would just be another example of the "Anti-Romney Flavor of the Month" attempting to take off and thus splitting a segment of that vote further, as Romney,while not beloved by the party base at this point, continues to remain pretty steady.

Many Republican voters are certainly not sold on Mitt Romney yet, but with each passing week, and with more and more challenges to his status as a leading contender not materializing as expected, the time may eventually come where those Republicans stop fighting the inevitable and embrace the Mittster for good.

NFL Week 4

2011-09-29T13:26:00.002-05:00

Overall Results: 23-25 (48%)

1. Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
2. Lions (3-0) at Cowboys (2-1)
3. Redskins (2-1) at Rams (0-3)
4. Vikings (0-3) at Chiefs (0-3)
5. Steelers (2-1) at Texans (2-1)
6. Saints (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2)
7. 49'ers (2-1) at Eagles (1-2)
8. Titans (2-1) at Browns (2-1)
9. Bills (3-0) at Bengals (1-2)
10. Giants (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)
11. Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)
12. Dolphins (0-3) at Chargers (2-1)
13. Patriots (2-1) at Raiders (2-1)
14. Broncos (1-2) at Packers (3-0)
15. Jets (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)
16. Colts (0-3) at Buccaneers (2-1)

NFL Week 3 Results

2011-09-27T06:33:00.002-05:00

1. Jaguars (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)- Loss 1
2. Lions (2-0) at Vikings (0-2)- Loss 2
3. 49'ers (1-1) at Bengals (1-1)- Loss 3
4. Dolphins (0-2) at Browns (1-1)- Loss 4
5. Patriots (2-0) at Bills (2-0)- Won 1
6. Giants (1-1) at Eagles (1-1)- Won 2
7. Broncos (1-1) at Titans (1-1)- Won 3
8. Texans (2-0) at Saints (1-1)- Loss 5
9. Jets (2-0) at Raiders (1-1)- Loss 6
10. Ravens (1-1) at Rams (0-2)- Won 4
11. Chiefs (0-2) at Chargers (1-1)- Loss 7
12. Falcons (1-1) at Buccaneers (1-1)- Won 5
13. Cardinals (1-1) at Seahawks (0-2)- Won 6
14. Packers (2-0) at Bears (1-1)- Loss 8
15. Steelers (1-1) at Colts (0-2)-Won 7
16. Redskins (2-0) at Cowboys (1-1)- Won 8

Week 3 Results: 8-8 (50%)
Overall Results: 23-25 (48%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-09-24T19:51:00.003-05:00

I believe that when the history of Campaign 2012 is written, this may be seen as the week when the Republican Presidential nomination was effectively clinched. The past few days saw all the major Republican candidates in Florida for a Fox News debate on Thursday, followed by a CPAC conference on Saturday, and a state party sponsored straw poll earlier today. Those events produced some surprises, but my overall take is that it was a horrible weekend for one of the front-runners in the nomination race. While any successful Presidential candidate will endure many ups and downs, and perhaps even see their political obituary written during a long campaign, I think some of what happened this week will be tough to overcome for the candidate in question.

I am going to experiment with doing things a little different this week, and it may become a new format for these weekly posts. In order to try to get the most organized information about the entire field, I am going to focus on reviewing events and offering analysis for each of the GOP candidates, one at a time.

The eventual winner will of course face incumbent Democrat Barack Obama, who despite some Republican predictions and perhaps Democrat secret hopes, does not seem likely in my mind to end his bid for reelection or be in danger of losing any sort of thus un-attempted primary fight. So, the Democrats are likely stuck (for better or worse) with a once heralded political orator and inspiring political figure, who after more than two and a half years in office continues to preside over a very poor economy, with no real hope for recovery in sight, a base of anxious and somewhat disappointed supporters, independents that he might have lost for good, and those who voted against him in 2008 that he has been completely unable to win over. There is also now headlines about the Administration's role in trying to bolster a failed green energy company named Solyndra, which may not be a household name (and may never be), but any talk of a "scandal" involving the White House is not a welcomed development.

Before looking at the nine GOP candidates who debated in Orlando on Thursday night (Buddy Roemer can't seem to catch a break), speculation continues to surround two big name Republicans who will need to make a final decision soon. Ultimately, I do not think either will run. If they do, it will add much intrigue and excitement to the race. Otherwise, what is currently looking like a two man contest for the nomination, after this past week, may wind up being less competitive than some currently realize.

Sarah Palin insists she will be announcing her decision soon, but is aggressively trying to raise money for her Political Action Committee in wake of the announcement. The Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie has insisted for months that he is absolutely not running for President, and has said there is nothing short of committing suicide that could send a more powerful message behind his previous no's. Still though, talk continues to swirl around him, with murky news reports indicate that he is still seriously considering the race.

Republicans who are dissatisfied with their choices (especially in wake of the apparent downfall of the Rick Perry campaign) are those most actively pushing Christie, believing that his tough talking blunt matter and victory in the blue state of New Jersey make him the most electable candidate.

Let me say that I really like Chris Christie and think he has a bright future of public service ahead of him; perhaps U.S. Attorney General under a Republican President, but I completely disagree with those who say that Christie would be electable. I think he would have significant political problems in a national race related to a number of things, but the biggest (no pun intended) would be due to the fact that he is a man who appears to weigh about 400 pounds.

I certainly believe this is unfair in a way, and that all people and candidates should be judged by the content of their character and not the size of their waist, but the political reality we live in is that about sixty percent of the country would rule Christie out as a potential President upon a first glance at him, or would be convinced based on his weight not to support him. There are many layers as to why people would think or react that way, but overall, it is just a political problem that would never be able to overcome.

Now let's look at the candidates. While these are not formal power rankings, I am going to try to cover them from least likely to be nominated to most:

Gary Johnson-

The former Governor of New Mexico is the one pro-choice candidate in the field and this week was invited to take place in his first debate since May. I believe that while he would never come close to winning anywhere, he would have a chance to appeal to libertarian minded Republicans as a less crazy version of Ron Paul, but in the debate struggled to really make that case. He even claimed that of all the candidates, Paul would be his most likely hypothetical running mate. While it is true that the two men have the most in common politically, it just looked like Johnson was pandering for Paul's supporters who are unlikely to leave him.

Stylistically, Johnson did not come across well in the debate, almost as if he was going through temporary marijuana withdrawal, but his line about his neighbor's dogs creating more shovel ready jobs than the Obama Administration was a big hit with all Republicans. However, it seems as if the joke might have been lifted (perhaps unwittingly) from a Rush Limbaugh quip earlier in the week.

Rick Santorum-

All his years in Congress indicate that he has political skills, despite his thumping at the polls in 2006 when he lost his seat. While his presence is largely irrelevant, I do tend to think that he has done fairly well (for whatever it is worth) in the debates. This past Thursday, I found myself agreeing with him on the forceful way he disagreed with Jon Huntsman on the issue of Afghanistan and Iraq and I believe he was extremely effectively politically in going after Rick Perry on the Texas Governor's immigration record.

There is no doubt that Santorum landed some serious blows on Perry in that exchange (to which Mitt Romney might owe him a debt of gratitude) and that Perry feeling forced to try to fight back against Santorum, quite ineffectively, was one of the defining moments of the debate.

Herman Cain-

He will not be the nominee of course, but in the debates, including this past Thursday, has proven to be an effective communicator. I think he was at his best in this past one, although he may primarily be lying on his "999" economic platform. The former businessman was applauded by the audience and by his fellow candidates by relating the story as to how he was given little chance for survival just a few years back when he was diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer.

A strong showing in Florida leading up to today's event might have something to do with the fact that Cain was the surprise winner of the Florida Straw Poll and did so running away, with over twice as many votes as the second place finisher, Rick Perry, who had invested heavily in trying to win the event and had been expected to be the winner.

This past week, Florida Governor Rick Scott predicted that the straw poll winner would win Florida next year in the primary and be the next President of the United States. I would be curious to know if he would still say that. There is no doubt that Cain will (and should) attempt to spin his big straw poll win as a sign of momentum in his campaign, but I think the results can be attributed mostly to a couple other factors.

One is that Rick Perry was viewed as having had such a horrible debate showing, and one which angered conservatives in at least one circumstance, that his supporters switched their votes to Cain, either as another option or as a way to send a message to the Texas Governor. I think that Romney supporters who took part in the event that the former Massachusetts Governor did not choose to compete in, might have also thrown some votes in Cain's direction in order to try to harm Perry.

Ron Paul-

Considering that straw poll victories were once all that he had going for him, the fourth place showing for the Texas Congressman with just about 10 percent of the vote has to be disappointing. Still though, Paul has his cadre of devoted supporters and polls out this week show that he might now be in third place nationally and perhaps even second place in New Hampshire.

Jon Huntsman-

He has been focusing strongly on New Hampshire, and while he does not seem to be a threat to actually win there, is now seemingly polling far above the miserable numbers he is getting nationally. One poll from the Granite State this week showed him with 10 percent of the vote, in third place, and ahead of Rick Perry.

Things are still pretty tough to overcome politically though for the former Utah Governor. During the debate, he made note of the back and forth exchanges between Romney and Perry, and compared them to one time polling leaders Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson who were overcome by John McCain in the last cycle. It appears though that a political "double murder" scenario between the other candidates might be his one and only hope for the nomination.

Newt Gingrich-

The former House Speaker remains completely unelectable and someone who was never going to be the Republican nominee. His entire campaign for the Presidency is basically dependent on exposure through the television debates.

However, he seems to get pretty high marks for his intellect and the way he states his positions in these debates and all sorts of Republican political junkie types who have been focusing most on those events have been declaring him the "winner" and saying things like "if only Newt were...", etc. etc. I do not completely buy into the train of thought that Gingrich is such a great debater, but I do appreciate the way he has tried to act like a party unifier during those forums.

Michele Bachmann-

She was once the political flavor of the week and looked like a top tier contender. Now, I think her campaign may be on life support and there will be real talk about her as a potential drop-out in the very near future. She is said to not have any resources to compete beyond next year's Iowa Caucuses, and she may conclude that focusing on a reelection bid to Congress is in her better long term political interest before too long.

Bachmann might have succeeded in thwarting the Presidential ambitions of Tim Pawlenty, but right after her big straw poll victory in Iowa, Rick Perry entered the race and has stopped her cold. (It remains to be seen if Perry has now knocked himself out of the race too.) Of the eight candidates who were listed on today's straw poll in Florida, Bachmann finished last with just over one percent of the vote.

Her first debate, earlier in the year, was widely praised, but she has struggled to live up to that standard since, and once again, appeared to be invisible at times on stage this past week. She is continuing to criticize Perry on the Gardasil issue, but that her seemingly over the top attacks on that might have backfired on her as well.

Rick Perry-

This past week has seen him continue to pick up endorsements from some of his fellow Republican Governors, and he still leads the national polls (albeit by a more narrow margin) as well as those in the early states of Iowa and South Carolina, but the events this week in Florida, on the heels of two previous failing to meet expectations debates, have hurt his still relatively new candidacy, and while slippage might not appear glaringly evident in the polls right away, I do think a serious political toll has been taken.

Both stylistically and substantively, Perry was seen as seriously lacking in his Orlando debate showing. He received criticism for the way he tried to defend himself by attacks from the other candidates and by the mangled way he tried to stick the rhetorical knife in Mitt Romney, who seemed to be able to easily turn the attacks on Perry. There has been talk that Perry, who had back surgery not long ago, might be in pain and uncomfortable on stage, especially as lengthy debates near their endings.

I do not know how much there is to that, but I think the debate performances are showing to Republicans,what I have long suspected, that Perry is just not a good debater, is more swagger than substance, and would be a huge risk to put on a stage in a debate against Barack Obama.

While I think Rick Perry has been a pretty good Governor of Texas, and while I agree with him on most issues, I think the way conservatives thought of him for months this summer and after he entered the race as some sort of masterful politician was nothing more than a huge political fairy tale, viewed by people who had not been watching his career for years. Perry was once "the great right hope", and I believe he will continue to have a lot of supporters, but I think many of the people who once looked at him as their candidate have begun to realize that he just may not have what it takes.

One particular moment from the Thursday debate may have done more to harm him than anything else and I think lost him a lot of support that evening. In defending his stance on in-state tuition breaks for illegal immigrants in his state (an issue I think is far more complicated than a simple black or white approach but which is very unpopular with conservatives), Perry seemed to claim that those who disagreed with him had "no heart." That elicited boos from the audience and an incredibly negative reaction by a Fox News Focus Group in Florida being monitored by pollster Frank Luntz. Several of the participants were on television right after the debate saying that Perry lost them forever right there, and that viewed his overall performance as weak.

As for the straw poll today that Perry had hoped to win; he finished a very distant second to Herman Cain, and just barely ahead of Mitt Romney, who had put no resources into the contest, (and who probably saw some supporters go for Cain for strategic purposes.)

It is still too early to totally write Perry off at this point, but it was a bad week for him, both stylistically and because of the focus being put on him over the immigration issue. Many of his supporters had claimed that he may not be quite as electable as Romney, but that it still would not prevent him from beating Obama, and that he was easily the more conservative of the two Republicans.

With several polls this week showing Romney running significantly better, and with Perry looking so not ready for prime time in the debates, the electability argument has been significantly increased. The fact that the Texas Governor may now also be angering conservatives on an issue like illegal immigration probably hurts even more on the ideology front.

Mitt Romney-

As regular readers would know, I have strongly supported this candidate for a long time now, and have never gotten too up or too down about his chances for the nomination thus far. He was once again seen as having had a very strong debate performance, stylistically and substantively, and of course, any damage done to Perry is helping Romney by default. Perry once benefited by taking support away from Bachmann, but I think the votes that Bachmann might be continuing to lose may instead now be going to Romney.

I neglected to mention last week that Romney had been endorsed by former rival Tim Pawlenty, who agreed to be the new national co-chair for the Romney campaign and who will be active on his behalf. On Thursday, Michigan Congressman Thad McCotter ended his little known Presidential bid and endorsed Romney as well. That part was especially surprising considering that McCotter had made public statements against Romney that were extremely negative (more so than Pawlenty had.) The fact that these ex-candidates might now be fine with Romney might perhaps be politics as usual, but in McCotter's case evidence that maybe he was not all too serious about the criticisms in the first place.

Romney may never truly be beloved by many conservatives who still harp over "Romneycare" and various other things, but his primary debate performances, strong showing in general election polls, and perceived ability to be a strong debate challenge for Obama next fall might help them warm up to the potential of his nomination.

The former Governor of Massachusetts has seemingly gotten the best out of exchanges with Rick Perry in three debates now, and while maintaining the edge of appeal to Independents, might have won over some conservatives at least on the immigration issue.

Running for President a second time has made Romney a better, more focused candidate, especially in the debates, but it was the entrance of Rick Perry and the buzz about his strong campaign roll-out that may have really energized the campaign of Mitt Romney to fight back and win.

NFL Week 3

2011-09-22T06:54:00.002-05:00

Overall Results: 15-17 (47%)

1. Jaguars (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
2. Lions (2-0) at Vikings (0-2)
3. 49'ers (1-1) at Bengals (1-1)
4. Dolphins (0-2) at Browns (1-1)
5. Patriots (2-0) at Bills (2-0)
6. Giants (1-1) at Eagles (1-1)
7. Broncos (1-1) at Titans (1-1)
8. Texans (2-0) at Saints (1-1)
9. Jets (2-0) at Raiders (1-1)
10. Ravens (1-1) at Rams (0-2)
11. Chiefs (0-2) at Chargers (1-1)
12. Falcons (1-1) at Buccaneers (1-1)
13. Cardinals (1-1) at Seahawks (0-2)
14. Packers (2-0) at Bears (1-1)
15. Steelers (1-1) at Colts (0-2)
16. Redskins (2-0) at Cowboys (1-1)

NFL Week 2 Results

2011-09-20T00:18:00.002-05:00

1. Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (0-1)- Won 1
2. Raiders (1-0) at Bills (1-0)- Won 2
3. Cardinals (1-0) at Redskins (1-0)- Loss 1
4. Buccaneers (0-1) at Vikings (0-1)-Won 3
5. Jaguars (1-0) at Jets (1-0)- Loss 2
6. Bears (1-0) at Saints (0-1)- Loss 3
7. Packers (1-0) at Panthers (0-1)- Loss 4
8. Ravens (1-0) at Titans (0-1)- Won 4
9. Chiefs (0-1) at Lions (1-0)- Loss 5
10. Browns (0-1) at Colts (0-1)- Loss 6
11. Cowboys (0-1) at 49'ers (1-0)- Won 5
12. Bengals (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)- Loss 7
13. Chargers (1-0) at Patriots (1-0)- Loss 8
14. Texans (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)- Won 6
15. Eagles (1-0) at Falcons (0-1)- Won 7
16. Rams (0-1) at Giants (0-1)- Loss 9

Week 2 Results: 7-9 (44%)
Overall Results: 15-17 (47%)

Race for the White House 2012

2011-09-17T18:35:00.002-05:00

The famous Democrat political strategist James Carville offered some advice to his party this week. Panic. The "Ragin' Cajun" said that things are so dire that Barack Obama needs to fire a whole bunch of people working for him, citing examples of previous Presidents and candidates, including his old boss Bill Clinton, who were able to rebound after major personnel changes.

While grumbling about Obama's reelection prospects are increasing in his party, and some speak of "buyer's remorse" in regards to the rejection of Hillary Clinton four years ago, and any remote possibility that she might somehow challenge the incumbent or encourage him to step aside for the good of the party, the White House does not seem to be panicking. In fact, Obama recently spoke about how he viewed his 2012 reelection campaign to be less of an uphill battle than his initial election in 2008. If I were a Democrat, I would be quite taken aback by that statement, realizing how much easier it would have been to replace an unpopular Administration on the wings of "hope and change" than it will be when the candidate is now the incumbent, with an unpopular Administration of its own and with a very poor record to defend.

The major political news of the week occurred on Tuesday, when as I predicted on my blog earlier this week, two Republicans won special elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. While special elections are not always about national trends or issues, I do feel these results were very much about Obama and should cause Democrats great concern.

In a Nevada district, which John McCain carried in 2008 by under 1oo votes, a Republican beat a highly touted statewide elected Democrat official by 22 points. A Republican winning there might not be shocking, but the margin had to have been eye opening. Shocking though was the fact that by a relatively solid margin, a 70 year old Republican, who had never won elective office, defeated a Democrat to take the seat that was recently held in New York City by the disgraced Congressman and one-time liberal champion Anthony Weiner. That result proved the axiom, "erections have consequences."

Much as been made of the result in the Brooklyn and Queens based district, which has a significant Jewish population, and which the highly experienced Democrat nominee was himself an Orthodox Jew. His loss to the Catholic Turner, which is owed a great deal to the enthusiastic involvement in the race of Jewish Democrat Ed Koch, the former Mayor of New York, who supported Turner could have major national significance. Obama had carried the district in '08 with 55 percent of the vote, reasonably competitive for NYC standards, but certainly a district that should have been safe for the party who had held it since 1922.

Republicans were able to turn the race into a referendum on the economy and also on Obama's treatment during his Presidency of America's stauch ally, the State of Israel. Jewish voters, both Orthodox and non-Orthodox, who have typically voted Democrat, decided to send a message in their special election vote, expressing their disapproval of Obama on Israel. Since my fellow Jewish-Americans make up such a traditionally loyal part of the Democrats' voting and financial base, this example has to be of great concern to the White House as it relates to how movement of the Jewish vote to a Republican nominee next year could make the difference in a handful of key, big population swing states.

So is Carville right and should Democrats panic? As a Republican, my answer is yes, but only to an extent. Nearly fourteen months is still a long time in politics, but it is hard to see how economic confidence and the unemployment race may be significantly improved by Election Day. That is very bad news for the incumbent and his party.

However, Obama's Republican opponent is now extremely likely to be either Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. My personal opinion, as a long-time political junkie, (and loyal Republican) is that Romney would defeat Obama, but Perry would lose and bring about four more years.

It might be that I, a vocal Romney supporter, am underestimating the economic factor and unpopularity of the current President, and that any credible Republican, including the long-time big state Governor of Texas with a record of success can defeat him, but I just would be very concerned that Perry is the wrong person to put up, and that the Democrats would be able to harmfully paint him as an extremist on the issue of Social Security, among other things.

Democrats, if they truly remain confident that Obama has any chance, should be rooting for Perry to capture his party's nomination. However, I think that as we get deeper into the Republican primary process, the electability gap between Romney and Perry will be so apparent, that it will be a major boost to the nomination hopes of the former Governor of Massachusetts.

Despite some seeming shrinkage in his lead, Perry remained ahead this past week in national polls and those in some important primary states. In just about every general election match-up survey released this week, nationally, and in states of varying political stripes, Romney runs at least a bit stronger against Obama. For example, Rasmussen Reports, which Republicans tend to put credence in, showed Romney ahead of the incumbent by three points, while Perry now trails by seven.

In many ways, this was a rough week politically for the conservative Texan. Early in the week, the eight most major GOP contenders met for a CNN debate in Florida, sponsored by the group Tea Party Express. While Perry went into the night with many supporters in the often boisterous (in which a small handful of people shamefully applauded a hypothetical example of a man without health insurance being left to die), he actually seemed to end the night with less of them in his corner. Perry's defense of his state's immigration policies was greeted with boos at one point and the overall conventional wisdom is that Perry once again seemed to not quite be as strong as he needed to in the debate form of defending himself.

While Newt Gingrich and to an extent Herman Cain mostly tried to tamper down any intra-party debate fighting, all of the other candidates seemed to focus on trying to take the supposed GOP frontrunner, Rick Perry, down a notch or two. Ron Paul criticized him on taxes, Mitt Romney attempted to minimize Perry's job creation argument by stating that he was lucky to enough to be dealt "four aces" in governing the economically favorable Texas, and Jon Huntsman claimed his jobs record in Utah was far stronger. In regards to the former Governor of Utah, Huntsman's debate performance was perhaps a bit odd, in which he made a Nirvana song reference and in a supposed sarcastic way accused Perry of treason. That all seemed to go over the audience's heads though. Despite this, Huntsman was endorsed yesterday by Tom Ridge, the moderate former Governor of Pennsylvania and Secretary of Homeland Security.

However, along with the issue of immigration and in-state tuition, it was Perry's one time executive order mandating that all 11 year old girls in his state be given a vaccine to prevent an STD that could lead to cervical cancer made the most headlines. Assisted on hammering Perry on the issue by Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, who has seen drastically falling poll results and the stepping back of her one time touted campaign manager Ed Rollins, went after Perry with rhetorical guns blazing, and many in the Tea Party debate audience seemed to be on her side.

While Perry has acknowledged that he made a mistake in trying to set in place the mandate by executive order, he has stood by the correctness of the action. Santorum inferred that it sent the wrong message to young girls and families while Bachmann pointed out that the maker of the vaccine was a drug company which had given money to Perry's Texas campaigns and that employed as a lobbyist the Governor's former Chief of Staff. Perry bristled at the allegation of unethical conduct, saying he was offended by the notion that he could be bought off for just $5000. At the time, while I understood what Perry was saying, I immediately thought his answer was perhaps a bit too "cute" and would come across badly to the viewing audience.

After the debate, Bachmann continued to fire away, perhaps irresponsibly so against Perry and the Gardasil drug, saying that a woman had come up to her moments before in tears saying that the vaccine had caused "mental retardation" in her daughter, a claim that medical experts say has no basis in fact. At the same time, Sarah Palin, (who has a new book coming out about her that even the New York Times claims is full of unsubstantiated gossip) went on Fox News for some post-debate analysis and in sounding very much like a future candidate seemed to be critical of the other candidates, especially Perry on the issue of "crony capitalism." To think, that it was just a couple weeks ago when Perry backers were confidently anticipating a Palin endorsement.

While it may be the immigration issue that will ultimately give Perry the most problems on the right, the brouhaha of Gardasil must have been a welcome development to Romney, who was able to remain silent on the matter as Bachmann's claims and allegations got the brunt of media attention after the debate and for the rest of the week. It remains to be seen whether Bachmann's actions can rescue a fledgling campaign, but she may hurt Perry nonetheless.

The Tea Party audience may not have been the friendliest group of people for Romney to face competitors in front of, and at times the audience applauded supposed political points scored on him, but still, most debate watchers came away with the impression that Romney was, for the fourth consecutive debate, once again quite strong, both substantively and stylistically.

"Romneycare" is always going to be brought up to the former Governor in these forums, but he has seemed to find a way to nimbly sidestep the issue and frame in a way that moves on to more favorable ground. Whenever a questioner or a fellow candidate, such as Perry, tries to throw a political punch against him, Romney has reacted in a pretty unflappable way with quick, confident retorts.

Perry may remain ahead in national polls for a while further, but each debate performance in which Romney is seen as the winner over Perry, is going to eventually have a cumulative effect. The GOP candidates will be at it again on a Florida stage, this coming Thursday night, on the Fox News Channel.

NFL Week 2

2011-09-15T18:09:00.001-05:00

Overall Results: 8-8 (50%)

1. Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (0-1)
2. Raiders (1-0) at Bills (1-0)
3. Cardinals (1-0) at Redskins (1-0)
4. Buccaneers (0-1) at Vikings (0-1)
5. Jaguars (1-0) at Jets (1-0)
6. Bears (1-0) at Saints (0-1)
7. Packers (1-0) at Panthers (0-1)
8. Ravens (1-0) at Titans (0-1)
9. Chiefs (0-1) at Lions (1-0)
10. Browns (0-1) at Colts (0-1)
11. Cowboys (0-1) at 49'ers (1-0)
12. Bengals (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)
13. Chargers (1-0) at Patriots (1-0)
14. Texans (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)
15. Eagles (1-0) at Falcons (0-1)
16. Rams (0-1) at Giants (0-1)

NFL Week 1 Results

2011-09-13T06:55:00.002-05:00

1. Saints (0-0) at Packers (0-0) - Loss 1
2. Falcons (0-0) at Bears (0-0)- Won 1
3. Bengals (0-0) at Browns (0-0)- Won 2
4. Bills (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0)- Won 3
5. Eagles (0-0) at Rams (0-0)- Loss 2
6. Lions (0-0) at Buccaneers (0-0)- Loss 3
7. Titans (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0)- Loss 4
8. Steelers (0-0) at Ravens (0-0)- Loss 5
9. Colts (0-0) at Texans (0-0)- Won 4
10. Giants (0-0) at Redskins (0-0)- Won 5
11. Seahawks (0-0) at 49'ers (0-0)- Loss 6
12. Vikings (0-0) at Chargers (0-0)- Won 6
13. Panthers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)- Won 7
14. Cowboys (0-0) at Jets (0-0)- Won 8
15. Patriots (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0)- Loss 7
16. Raiders (0-0) at Broncos (0-0)- Loss 8

Week 1 and Overall Results: 8-8 (50%)

2011/2012 U.S. House Special Elections

2011-09-12T17:38:00.001-05:00

Sometimes U.S. House Special Elections are about local issues and candidates, and sometimes they may be part of a telling national narrative. Per tradition, I never make any comments on U.S. House races when I make predictions (because I would then have to do it for every district), so I will leave it to thers to decide for now what one of the races may signify.

So far in 2011, I am 1-1 in predicting these special elections, as Democrats held one of their strong districts in California, and picked up a GOP leaning district in New York, due to an incumbent resigning because of a sex scandal. I was wrong on the NY race. Those sorts of scandals provide quite a theme for the races that are still pending.

Tomorrow, the Second District of Nevada will vote. In May, I already classified that race as Leans Republican. I do not usually change predictions for Special Elections, but if I did, that race is now probably more Likely Republican.

That leaves two remaining U.S. House vacancies due to randy Democrats and the trouble they got in. The first will be decided by the voters tomorrow, while the other seat will not be filled until early 2012.

New York:

9. Vacant (resignation of Anthony Weiner-D) - (Obama 55%)- Tossup (R)

Oregon:

1. Vacant (resignation of David Wu-D)- (Obama 61%)- Likely D

Race for the White House 2012

2011-09-10T19:52:00.002-05:00

This week saw much coverage of large political events and very little coverage of the smaller ones. Since I try to cover a bit of everything, it is worth nothing that former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, who last year seemed likely to launch a quixotic foreign policy bid for the GOP nomination, but who had not done anything towards that end, formally took himself out of consideration. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who was much revered this month ten years ago, stated this past week that he will run once again for the White House if the Republican Party is "desperate." While many might still believe that the moderate Giuliani would be a strong general election campaign, his statement did not appear to be a ringing endorsement of his own potential candidacy and it set up a standard that will be almost impossible to meet.

Instead, much of the focus this week was on the incumbent Democrat and on his two leading Republican rivals. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney both released jobs plans this week. Romney did so by unveiling a 59 point plan during a campaign visit to Nevada. He received much praise from conservatives for the dept of his proposal, as he did for an appearance earlier in the week in South Carolina, before a Presidential forum hosted by Jim DeMint. Previously, Romney was not planning to attend, but changed his schedule to do so, in what many saw a sign that his campaign feels the need to ramp up their activities to a larger extent. Scheduled to appear at the DeMint forum, but canceling due to dangerous fires in his state, was Texas Governor Rick Perry, who returned home to manage the crisis.

Perry and Romney were both present though at Wednesday night's GOP debate at the Reagan Library in California. Six other GOP contenders were also there, although they failed to do much to gain much notice. Michele Bachmann, declined to forcefully take on Perry, who has seriously hampered the momentum she once had, and seemed far more like an also-ran on stage than a serious contender for the nomination. Jon Huntsman fared better than he did in his first debate, but with so many base Republican voters finding him unappealing, there may not be much he can do. Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum also all tried to break through without much avail. Ron Paul did his usual thing, but broadened it out to include some serious hits on his fellow Texan. Paul, who is also running ads criticizing Perry's Democrat past during the Reagan years (which is interesting since Paul left the GOP to run for President as a Libertarian in 1988) has apparently managed to get under Perry's skin. The Governor was photographed looking quite angry at Paul during up close and personal exchanges during television breaks.

The main contenders in the debate were Perry and Romney of course. They sparred mostly at the beginning over the issue of their job creation records, and while Perry unleashed some pre-packaged zings, Romney responded in a quite effective way. Non-biased observers (which I may not be one of) mostly claimed that Romney got the best out of the exchange. Overall, Romney was seen as having another very strong debate performance, both on substance and presentation. He is improved in the format from his performances during the last cycle. Perry, who had never debated on a national stage before, gave a more uneven performance. Some felt he looked completely not ready for prime time, while others believed the now apparent frontrunner did enough to prove credibility. The MSNBC hosted format did appear to target both Romney and Perry for embarrassment, but especially Perry

There will be several more debates over the next couple of months and the Romney vs. Perry dynamics will continue to be interesting. One of the perhaps surprising aspects of the GOP primary contest is the extent that it now appears likely that Social Security will be discussed. Perry, in a pre-Presidential campaign book labeled it as a "Ponzi Scheme", and when asked about that in the debate, "doubled down" on the claim. Romney, who while admitting the funding mechanism for the program is in need of serious reform to strengthen it, came down on the side of protecting Social Security. In the days after the debate, his campaign has hammered Perry on the issue. While many conservatives will cheer Perry's take on the entitlement program as "principled" or "candid", many also will say that even if they somewhat share his view, talking about it in the way that he does is akin to political suicide. In fact, it is hard to see how Perry could win a general election with that sort of position as a major focus. Romney will push that hard, using the electability issue, while it is also likely that elderly and middle age Republican voters, who vote at high margins, will find Perry's position troubling enough in states like Florida, to also harm him at the polls in the primaries.

The person both Romney and Perry hope to face next year, Barack Obama began his week at a campaign style Labor Day rally in Detroit, Michigan. Before Obama spoke, James Hoffa Jr., the President of the Teamster's Union stirred up controversy by referring to Tea Party sympathizers as "son of bitches." While slightly profane language from a union boss may not be shocking in the political arena, it does of course go against the supposed civility standards that Obama called for early this year. The White House claimed Obama did not hear Hoffa's remarks, and Press Secretary Jay Carney found himself later on in a particularly awkward exchange with the media, in which he refused to denounce the remarks on behalf of the President. This will of course lead to another potential double standard down the road if Democrats wish to take issue with anything offensive that may be said by someone at a Republican rally during the campaign season.

Thursday night saw Obama speak before a Joint Session of Congress on his jobs proposal. It was far more of a campaign style speech that is typically seen in that venue. Democrats seem to enjoy Obama's fighting spirit, while Republicans were far more critical. In fact, there is no actual jobs bill from Obama before Congress, despite his frequent demand during the speech for Congress to "pass this bill now", and despite claims to the contrary, no realistic way to pay for it. While there are aspects of things Obama said that Republicans would be willing to go along with, far more of it appears to just be another stimulus program, similar to the one from two years ago, which failed to improve the unemployment rate. There could be consensus in Congress to pass bits and pieces of what President Obama wanted, but the White House may prefer to demand an all or nothing approach, knowing that the Republican majority in the House would never go along with everything he wants. They seem to mostly be hoping for a political fight on the campaign trail against the "Do Nothing Congress."

The political back and forth of a campaign season, rather it be in a primary or between the two parties is a hallmark of our democracy, and something to feel good about. During this particular weekend though, those healthy political divisions and fights seem to be somewhat less important though when we remember the anniversary of tomorrow's date.

This morning, I attended a meeting with my state's Republican Senator Mark Kirk. The Senator, (who said he will not make any endorsement in the Republican primary battle), recalled that on September 11, 2001, he was at the Pentagon meeting with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld when the attack on that building occurred. The memories he had are still very vivid, and so are the ones from that day from just about all of us who lived through it. I can remember so much from that day, from the events, to the emotions I was feeling. I knew our world had changed forever, and seeing the various television specials commemorating the decade anniversary, a lot of that comes rushing back. I would never have imagined on that day, that we would be so lucky as to not have faced another remotely major attack on American soil since. Thursday brought news of an apparent new, credible terrorist threat, which should remind us of how important this all continues to be,

Five years ago on September 11, when this blog of mine was pretty new, I remember being online and reading much political rancor from those of one particular ideology who looked upon the broken post-9/11 unity, and the wars that our military was fighting on a couple different fronts, as a way to focus rage at the then President of the United States. Five years later, conservatives are quite unhappy with the current President, but almost everyone saluted him for signing off on the mission that finally eliminated Osama bin Laden from the Earth. The Ten Year Anniversary is a big deal to many in the media and elsewhere, but it is far less that I might have expected all those years ago. Most of us are going on with our usual weekend activities, watching football, and giving not too much more than a few passing thoughts towards what happened in 2001.

There really are not words, especially in this rushed format, to properly convey a tribute to those who lost their lives on that day, those who have suffered by consequence every day since, and how 9/11/01 did change our country and world forever. Too often, I think we have forgotten that and continue to be far too casual about life in America and what threats still exist.

The economy, jobs, health care, and many other things are important issues that need to be debated, both in the Republican primaries and in the general election. I would also hope that security, both internationally and domestically, issues that in many ways trump all us, are given far more attention, even if, hopefully, we are not ever again faced with a day as horrific as the one we will remember tomorrow.

NFL Week 1

2011-09-05T13:50:00.002-05:00

Every season, I post the weekly NFL schedule and I do not make predictions, but I bold the names of the team I hope will win. The criteria is either subjective or simply what is in the best interest of the Chicago Bears. I have basically been tuned out from the world of sports this past summer, so I am hoping football season will give me something to be happy about in that regard.

The bulk of these games will occur on 9/11/11. That is a powerful reminder that some things are far more important than the result of a game.

Opening Score: 0-0 (0%)- of course

1. Saints (0-0) at Packers (0-0)
2. Falcons (0-0) at Bears (0-0)
3. Bengals (0-0) at Browns (0-0)
4. Bills (0-0) at Chiefs (0-0)
5. Eagles (0-0) at Rams (0-0)
6. Lions (0-0) at Buccaneers (0-0)
7. Titans (0-0) at Jaguars (0-0)
8. Steelers (0-0) at Ravens (0-0)
9. Colts (0-0) at Texans (0-0)
10. Giants (0-0) at Redskins (0-0)
11. Seahawks (0-0) at 49'ers (0-0)
12. Vikings (0-0) at Chargers (0-0)
13. Panthers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)
14. Cowboys (0-0) at Jets (0-0)
15. Patriots (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0)
16. Raiders (0-0) at Broncos (0-0)

2011 Governor Races

2011-09-04T11:27:00.003-05:00

September Update:

For the first time this year, I will take a brief look at the four contests on the ballot for Governor in 2011. I will follow up with another update in October, and then again with final predictions for those that will be decided in November. However, there is just not much in the way of drama in any of these races.

Kentucky:

While Kentucky is one of the strongest Republican states on the federal level, and solidly anti-Obama, Democrats still have the ability to do very well at the state and local levels. Despite the national political environment, it looks as if first term incumbent Governor Steve Beshear is headed to a relatively easy win, and that his coattails may bring other statewide Democrat candidates into office with him.

Having ousted an unpopular first term Republican four years ago, Beshear has managed to stay more in the good graces of his state's voters. His Republican opponent, who easily captured the nomination is the State Senate President, David Williams. I do not know the particular issues that have been driving this Bluegrass State election, but polls show Beshear well ahead. Only the conservative nature of the state may prevent him from topping 60 percent of the vote, but that will remain to be seen.

In the state that made Colonel Sanders famous, Williams has apparently taken to having a chicken be a part of his campaign, and refers to Beshear as being "All Feathers, No Cluck."

Complicating the race for the Republican ticket among conservatives may be the fact that Williams went through a messy divorce several years back and while he is now remarried, the court documents from that divorce have been part of the campaign. Additionally, Williams' running mate, the aptly named State Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer, saw his wife file for divorce during this current campaign.

September rating: Likely Democrat

Williams campaign link:

http://williamsfarmer.com/

Louisiana:

Down on the Bayou, an even less competitive race has shaped up with popular first term Republican Governor Bobby Jindal headed for a stress-free reelection.

While he would have been a heavy favorite against any opponent, all of the prominent Louisiana Democrats who had considered taking him on, have passed on the race. That leaves just one announced Democrat candidate to face Jindal, Tara Hollis, a 33 year old teacher who claims to be a disappointed former Jindal supporter. She has less than $1,000 in campaign cash while the incumbent is sitting on a fund of $9 million. When all is said and done, and if no other Democrat meets this week's filing deadline, Hollis may finish behind Ron Ceasar, an African-American running as an Independent.

Jindal should easily surpass 50% of the vote on October 22, making a runoff unecessary and then he will likely be subject to speculation as to if he may be in line to become the 2012 GOP Vice Presidential nominee.

September rating: Safe Republican

Jindal campaign link:

http://www.bobbyjindal.com/

Mississippi:

The Magnolia State is the home of the one Gubernatorial race this year that will not feature an incumbent. Popular Republican Governor Haley Barbour is term limited and surprised many by not running for President this year.

While Barbour's closest allies were believed to prefer a different Republican in June's primary, that round was won, without a runoff needed, by the state's Lt. Governor Phil Bryant, who had long been planning his run for the state's top job.

The Democrat candidates for the job were far less known and far less formidable than the leading GOP candidates. An August runoff though did produce an historic first for the state as Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree became the first black major party nominee for Governor of Mississippi in modern times. The state, with the highest percentage of black citizens in the nation, has not had an African-American statewide official since Reconstruction, and that is unlikely to change this year.

There is little reason to believe that racial tensions will be at the heart of the general election this year. Mississippi is just a very conservative, Republican leaning state, and Bryant would be heavily favored over any opponent.

September rating: Likely Republican

Bryant campaign link:

http://www.philbryant.com/

West Virginia:

The Mountaineer State did not have a Gubernatorial election originally scheduled for this year, but the 2010 election of Democrat Governor Joe Manchin to the U.S. Senate produced a legal battle that resulted in an outcome that mandated a 2011 special election to formally replace him. The office will again be up during the regularly scheduled election in 2012, and such a quick turnaround could be a double edged sword to either party, depending on the political circumstances in the state next year.

For now, it looks as if the person, who as State Senate President, was elevtated to replace Manchin, Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin, will be able to take the qualifier "Acting" out of his current job as Governor. Tomblin had to survive a very contentious special primary, in which he was challenged by several high profile Democrats. The campaign was personal at times, but Tomblin, who was considered the most conservative of the Democrats in the field managed to win the multi-candidate race by a solid margin.

On the GOP side, the more conservative candidate also won the nomination. Businessman Bill Maloney, who was backed by many in the Tea Party movement easily surpassed his main opponent, former Secretary of State Betty Ireland, who was easily seen as the most electable Republican in the race.

While West Virginia is also a state that is now solidly Republican at the Presidential level, Democrats still do very well everywhere else and Tomblin has had a large lead on Maloney from the start and should be considered a heavy favorite for an election that will be decided on October 4th. It will remain to be seen whether 2012 will produce a rematch, or if a stronger Republican, such as Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito may take the option of a run for Governor.

September rating: Likely Democrat

Maloney campaign link:

http://www.maloneyforwv.com/

Race for the White House 2012

2011-09-03T20:51:00.003-05:00

A year from now, Labor Day Weekend will signify the unofficial start of the final general election push. Things on the political front are at least slightly quieter than they will be next September, but a very eventful week lies ahead (or is it lays ahead, current and former English majors?)

With Barack Obama's most recent vacation now over, he is back in Washington and will be following through on his intention to present his jobs program to the nation. Perhaps surprisingly, he wants to deliver a speech before a Joint Session of Congress, which is very rarely done for none State of the Union Addresses. Typically, a President formally requests permission from the Speaker of the House to visit Capitol Hill, and that request is always granted. This week though, saw a huge brouhaha develop over Obama's request to speak during prime time this coming Wednesday evening.

While not specifically denying the request, Speaker John Boehner sent the President a letter in return asking him to pick a different night due to short notice. The House will just be coming back into Wednesday and Boehner cited the time it would take for security measures to secure the chamber. What was left unsaid is the fact that for months, a Republican Presidential Debate, has been scheduled to occur at the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California and to be broadcast live on MSNBC (which many Republicans may find difficult to actually locate on their televisions.)

Allies of the President took huge offense to Boehner's request and a story late this week reported that the White House was very angry by the move. Nonetheless, Obama decided to instead speak Thursday night, in a move that is being seen as "caving in." However, Thursday night is the kickoff for the NFL season, with a game scheduled for NBC. Therefore, the White House really had no option to schedule a speech to finish before kickoff. Thus, the Commander in Chief will be taking the podium at a very non optimal prime time spot for viewers across the nation. For example, it will take place on the west coast at a time when most people (that is those who still have jobs) will still be at work.

If I may editorialize a bit here, this has been a tremendously embarrassing episode for Obama and his team and I am quite glad that Speaker Boehner was prepared to stand firm and prevent what has to be seen as a nakedly political ploy to pre-empt the GOP debate, which is sure to feature much criticism of Obama. Many on the right, think that Obama just will basically be delivering a campaign speech anyway, and the request to speak to Congress should have flatly been denied. I will not go that far. I think if a President asks to speak, it should be granted, but it was in extremely bad form for Obama to ask for the time he did, and I think even his supporters will have a hard time claiming this was all just coincidental.

Political watchers can debate further whether Boehner actually did Obama a favor, both by allowing him to not have to compete with a debate, which highly attuned voters might find more interesting, and for not coming across as being un-Presidential by trying to talk over his would be opponents. While the White House may have thought they could have gained a political advantage by looking "larger" than the more than half-dozen Republicans who will debating in California, it was a move that backfired.

Now though, the debate and the speech will be given on back to back nights and each will get their own spotlight in the news cycle. I do think though that Obama's jobs message will receive significantly lower ratings than it would on another week, because of the time it will be given, due to the NFL considerations. Once again, while "regular" Americans may not care much about the inside baseball (or football) aspects of all this, it does signify some dysfunction and bad political posturing from the team that is trying to win four more years.

As for the much awaited speech itself, it will be interesting to see if there is anything specific or new in it, or if instead Obama will just use the occasion to frame the issue of widespread unemployment in a way that will seek to blame Republicans during the election year. The Administration now claims that unemployment will remain over nine percent by the 2012 election, and on Friday, the Labor Department report was even worse than expected. It showed that for the first time in over 60 years, not a single net job was created in America.

Of course, this all means that candidates who will be debating in front of a giant Air Force One replica at the Reagan Library may wind up becoming far more familiar with the actual jet. The debate should be fascinating to watch as Rick Perry, who many now consider to be the GOP frontrunner, will be making his national debut. If the Texas Governor does well, his support should solidify. If he somehow fails to live up to the expectations that his casual supporters might have of him, his standing may start to fall quickly, along with his lead in national polls and in some of the early states. Mitt Romney, who was seen as the front-runner in previous debates may now find himself in a position to want to play as much offense as defense. Michele Bachmann, whose political fortunes after her Iowa Straw poll win last month have gone south, may also find herself needing to be very aggressive in going after Perry.

It will be the exchanges between Perry and Romney that will make the most headlines though, as it looks more and more like they will be headed for a long two man race for the nomination. Perry will likely go after Romney for his health care plan as Governor of Massachusetts, while Romney can be expected to criticize Perry's record on illegal immigration, in a way that may give conservatives much pause about the border state Governor. Additionally, the theme the Romney campaign may try to push is that of Perry being a career politician who has no experience in the private sector, while Romney, besides being Governor, spent most of his adult life in the private sector and creating jobs in it. Thus far, the former Massachusetts Governor, who I feel is incredibly more electable than Perry, and easily the best candidate we can offer, has played things pretty low key, without much in the way of criticism of his Republican opponents. Come Wednesday night, that will probably change.

One Republican who will not be taking the stage on Wednesday will be Sarah Palin. For weeks, speculation has been rampant, with many now saying they think she is more likely to run for President after all. I continue to predict she will not, but she did address a large Tea Party gathering in Iowa today with a trip to New Hampshire scheduled for the upcoming week.

As for today, she did not announce her candidacy or endorse Perry, or refer to any Republican candidate by name, but she did in effect, sound more like someone who might become one herself. The speech was heavy on conservative populism, and interestingly enough, seemed to take some veiled shots at Perry in regards to what Palin referred to as "crony capitalism." She also even got a slight dig in at John McCain over his use of the term "hobbits" in some sort of reference he made to the Tea Party. That was interesting as well, since it goes without saying that McCain is the person responsible for the fact that Palin was able to deliver a different speech before a much larger audience, three years ago today in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Whether she runs or not, Palin is certainly a political force in the Republican Party, and while she would be unlikely to be nominated if she does succumb to the temptation to run, one person who is probably hoping very hard that she does not, is James Richard Perry of Texas.

Race for the White House 2012

2011-08-27T17:59:00.002-05:00

It has been a week of significant developments in Libya, months after the Administration claimed they would occur, one that saw a rare earthquake hit the east coast, and currently a weekend of great hype and fear as Hurricane Irene prepares to bear down on that same east coast, putting Washington D.C. and New York City in the path of the storm. The situation appears serious enough that Barack Obama even cut his Martha Vineyard's vacation short by one day.

In the final pre-Labor Day weekend of 2011, the Republican Presidential contest appears to many to be vastly different than it looked when the month began. This past week, saw speculation about Paul Ryan end, when he once again confirmed he will not be a candidate for the White House this cycle. Months ago, former New York Governor George Pataki had said the same thing, but in the space of one week, Pataki was reported to have decided to run, with an imminent announcement, only for him to once again pull out. The absence of the moderate Republican in the race has to cause the fledgling campaign of Jon Huntsman to breathe a sigh of relief, as their small pool of supporters will not have another option. Speaking of Huntsman, some on the right are starting to grumble that he may be preparing to launch a third party general election race. I think it would be more likely that Huntsman might instead endorse his former boss Obama, and speak at next year's Charlotte convention. That might have a lot to do though with whom the GOP eventually nominates.

As September is almost here, we appear to be very close to hearing a final answer from Sarah Palin. She has taken umbrage this past week over Karl Rove speculating over whether or not she will run, which is curious, considering if she did not want speculation to take place, she could very simply put an end to it by saying she will not run. If she does, her name recognition and political star power could make her a serious contender in the field, at least at first. Many others are convinced that when she makes her announcement, it will instead be an endorsement of her friend, Rick Perry, the man who many in the media and in the party are now looking at as the new 2012 frontrunner.

Perry seems to have a very good couple of weeks as his entrance into the race and large amount of media attention and buzz among conservatives have him starting off with a double digit lead in national Republican primary polls, as well as in South Carolina, along with at least a modest lead in Iowa. It is worth keeing in mind that late announcing candidates, in past cycles, such as Democrat Wesley Clark in 2003 and Republican Fred Thompson in 2007, benefited from a "surge" in polls upon announcing their candidacies before falling back down to Earth.

I actually think Perry will remain a serious contender for the nomination, probably until the nomination is actually decided. There has been much talk from the media and among conservatives online as to how Perry's early showing spells doom for both the conservative insurgent campaign of Michele Bachmann and the establishment "next guy in line" meme surrounding Mitt Romney. I think it is too early to declare that, and I think Perry is going to not necessarily look in a couple months as he does now.

Perry, who besides leading the somewhat irrelevant national primary polls at this date, also, according to the Gallup poll at least, runs about as competitive against Obama as Romney. That is leaving many to surmise that there is no electability gap between the two Republican Governors, and many are thinking that since Perry is perceived as more conservative, he would be a better bet. I have my doubts as to if Perry will continue to look as formidable against Obama as more people are exposed to him as a national candidate. Most eventual Republican primary voters, while strongly wanting to make Obama a one-term President, are not yet focusing intently on the race and have the potential to swing back and forth between Perry, Romney, and undecided. If the time comes where Perry looks significantly weaker than Romney, and voters realize that ideologically, they are not at all far apart anyway, much of that polling support might disappear for the Texan.

Currently, I would say that national support for Romney and Perry alike is not necessarily deep. People have impressions, both favorably and negatively about both, that might eventually lessen during the course of a campaign. On the flip-side, I think that despite her recent polling downslide, it is too early to count Bachmann out of maybe winning Iowa. Her cadre of supporters are more true ideological believers and thus less concerned about the pragmatism of electability.

Nonetheless, it would be a major upset if anybody other than Romney or Perry emerges as the nominee next year. There will be a real competition, going into the first four voting contests, and like with all primaries, the danger exists for intra-party warfare to hurt the chances of the eventual winner. Others believe strong competition is a good thing and produces more battle-tested candidates for a general election and would point to the ultimate result of the 2008 race after an epic Obama vs. Hillary Clinton contest that lasted until May.

While anything is possible, I think the Republican nomination will probably be decided well before that this cycle. If things did drag on, a longer contest might benefit Romney, who might have the financial and organizational edge to compete in some of the very large states that will vote later in the calender.

The final Republican delegate selection schedule has yet to be finalized, but at the moment, it appears that four states, one in each geographic will go first. Those states are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Much like NFL playoff possibilities that can be somewhat complicated, I have devised what I think is a formula to determine who will eventually win the nod.

If either Perry or Romney take first in both Iowa and then New Hampshire the next week, which would be unprecedented for an open Republican race, that person is almost assured of clinching the nomination for all intents and purposes then and there. If that does not happen though, I would look to Nevada and South Carolina and say that if one candidate finishes above the other in three out of the first four states (and it does not even have to be a first place finish), then the candidate on the short end of the stick has failed in the race, and the other person probably is close to wrapping up the nomination.

Right now, conventional wisdom would seem to suggest that in the first four states, they will split 2-2, with Perry winning Iowa and South Carolina, and Romney winning New Hampshire and Nevada. If that happens, it will then really be a two person race, moving on to states that might vote next, like Florida, Michigan, and beyond for however long it takes until a nominee emerges.

Race for the White House 2012

2011-08-20T18:40:00.002-05:00

With the Ames Straw Poll in the rear-view mirror, the Republican Presidential race has moved along this past week in some interesting ways.

While it appeared his 2012 viability has long been endangered, the withdrawal of the race by former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty came even swifter than expected. The morning after his disappointing showing in Ames, Pawlenty withdrew from the race during a Sunday talk show interview. "T-Paw" is young enough to have a future in the GOP, but he has now seen his national ambitions twice stymied; first by being passed over by John McCain as the apparent runner-up in the 2008 Veep sweepstakes and then again this year in a short-lived Presidential campaign, that at one point looked promising. Many (including myself) had surmised that Pawlenty would be the eventual #2 candidate in the Republican primary field, while others, including some liberal MSNBC talkers thought he would eventually emerge as the compromise GOP choice for the nomination. Pawlenty, who early on had an impressive campaign structure, will now be watched to see if he will be issuing a primary endorsement, and how that might effect both the race and any hope he might have of being put on the ticket as the Veep candidate next year.

Spending his first week on the campaign trail, in the early states, Rick Perry, the one sitting Governor in the race was very visible in the media and has many Republicans buzzing. Some, especially on blogs, are downright certain that he will emerge as the eventual GOP nominee, and point to polls out this week, both from states, and a Rasmussen national poll, showing Perry ahead by 11 points over second place finisher Mitt Romney. I believe we are headed towards an interesting point in the campaign, as I stated months ago, back when Perry had denounced interest in the race, that he would be formidable if he did run. However, I think, as we have seen in Presidential politics before, these sort of "flavor of the month" candidates often fall hard back down to the political earth. It is dangerous to be perceived as a "front-runner" this early in the cycle and as a Romney supporter, I am not overly concerned about my candidate being overshadowed currently.

While the Perry campaign has many conservatives cheering, liberals, the media, and a lot of establishment Republicans have been taking great notice of some of the headlines from Perry's roll-out tour and how it might demonstrate serious national political weakness. Early in the week, Perry made comments in which he mused that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was "borderline treasonous", followed by a veiled comment of how the nation's top economist might face danger in Texas. Some on the right profess to love the blunt talk from Perry, while most others, including many Republicans who served in the Bush Administration went public with criticism over Perry and how his remarks indicated how not ready for prime time he might be.

One of those Republicans is Karl Rove, who over 20 years ago was believed to be the person who convinced Perry to join the GOP, but who has had a strained relationship with him for over 10 years now. Rove, who is a Fox News contributor, has come across this week on the airwaves as being very much opposed to a Perry candidacy, without his having to directly say it. Rove raised some serious eyebrows when he stated that he had heard that both New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and House Budget Chair Paul Ryan of Wisconsin were seriously looking at getting into the race and that Rove expected the field to grow. In fact, after Rove's remarks, various media stories did seem to advance the possibility of Christie and Ryan running, but I have my doubts. Perry supporters, which seemingly include Rush Limbaugh, characterized Rove's remarks as evidence that the GOP establishment is "scared to death" of Rick Perry. If that is the case, I would say it would not be a fear of his views or how he would govern nearly as much of the fear that he could ruin a great chance to defeat Barack Obama.

In addition to the Christie and Ryan speculation, there has also been talk late this week that Sarah Palin may be announcing her candidacy after Labor Day. One again, I very much doubt it will happen (as a Romney backer I would have no objections), but if Perry's entrance into the race has truly shaken things up this much, we could be in for a season of some serious political fireworks that any political junkie would have no choice but to relish. A large number of Perry supporters seem to be convinced that Palin will be endorsing their candidate in short order.

While I will try not to say something along these lines every week, I remain very optimistic about the long term prospects of Mitt Romney. He has been less visible than some of the other Republican candidates thus far this year, and it is true that many in the party's base seem to be lukewarm about him, but ultimately, when the voting starts next January and February, Romney's electability against Obama might make all the difference. I believe Republicans, including many in the Tea Party movement, will ultimately realize that the differences between the GOP candidates are not incredibly deep, and that the electability factor, and who is polling best against the incumbent, will be quite significant. While he has not been making headlines on a daily or even weekly basis, Romney has been spending this year raising large amounts of money and building political organizations across the country. I am sure he would prefer to save it to use against the Democrats, but if necessary, he will have ample resources to use against Rick Perry or anyone else who might be in the way of a convention coronation in Central Florida.

Other Republicans remain in the race of course, but the media is actively dismissing them as having realistic shots at the nomination. Michele Bachmann, who was boosted by her Straw Poll showing, spent Sunday night at an event in which Perry also appeared, and was criticized for the way she seemed to deliberately avoid being in the room at the same time as him. In perhaps a more embarrassing gaffe, to which she has notably had many, the Congresswoman wished Elvis Presley a "happy birthday" on August 16th, which is the day he died (allegedly.)

Bachmann's rhetoric this past week has included more references to her gender and status as the only woman seeking the White House. With another strong opponent in the GOP field, the other Republican candidates back in the pack are going to try to emphasize as much of a niche as they in order to gain support. Rick Santorum is attacking Perry from the right on social issues, while Jon Huntsman is likely to embrace his positioning as the most "moderate" Republican in the field as basically his only chance. Making a play for the Volvo driving, latte sipping wing of the Republican Party, Huntsman had criticism for Perry's conservative views this week on global warming.

Of all the announced candidates, Ron Paul easily polls third or fourth best nationally, and that is probably unlikely to change. He has a base of committed supporters, but they are bemoaning the fact that the media has been ignoring his campaign in proportion to his level of support. I suppose I could understand that frustration, but the truth of the matter is that Paul has absolutely no chance of being the GOP nominee. He is easily the first choice of his supporters, but among other Republicans, he is not even the second, third, or even ninth choice of almost anyone else.

Barring a political upset, the eventual winner of the Romney vs. Perry skirmish will emerge to face the incumbent President. This past week has seen more bad news on Wall Street and Barack Obama's job approval numbers continue to fall to new lows. While I expect the general election to be fiercely competitive next year, clearly, the Republican nomination will be one worth having.

Earlier in the week, Obama visited some Midwest states in a large, partially Canadian built bus, on a trip, labeled by Mitt Romney as the "Magical Misery Tour." During these stops, Obama sparred on a rope line with some young Tea Party activists and the headlines gathered were not exactly good. Currently, the incumbent and his family are now in the ultra-wealthy liberal enclave of Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts, on a vacation.

Past Presidents, including George W. Bush have, like Obama currently, faced criticism over taking too many vacations. I believed then and believe now that with the support infrastructure that goes anywhere the Chief Executive does, a President is never truly "off the clock." However, when looking at it through a strictly political lens, many Americans think Obama just takes too many vacations. While his Republican predecessor would spend much of each August at his relatively modest Texas ranch, on a property he owned, Obama's spending time hobnobbing with the rich and famous in an exclusive location at least contributes to the perspective that he is out of touch.

This is even more of an "optics" problem for the sitting President considering some of the headlines of the past week. With unemployment remaining chronically high, Obama, on his bus tour, announced that he had a workable plan to create jobs and solve that problem, but would announce it in a September speech, after he returned from his vacation.

Wow. That takes chutzpah, and unlike Michele Bachmann, I know how to pronounce that word. if Obama has a plan to bring jobs to the jobless, one would think that would be a pretty important thing to get enacted, like right away, and not only after he got back from a luxurious stay on the Cape. Many Americans have been waiting to find a job or worried about losing their current job for a long time and assuming that the occupant of the Oval Office really does have a good plan, would prefer not to wait until September.

With each passing week, it looks like a smartly selected Republican nominee, capable of running a strong campaign, might very well add the name of Barack Obama to the list of the unemployed.

Race for the White House 2012

2011-08-13T19:04:00.002-05:00

It has been an extremely busy week in Republican Presidential politics, and it would be hard for me to possibly recap everything as I offer these relatively brief thoughts on the developments.

As of today, the field is now largely set, although two Republicans with high name recognition; Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani continue to want to be seen as potential entrants. Time may have run out on another potential candidate, who once looked likely to run, but whose name I do not believe I have mentioned yet this year; former Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton. Former Governors Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer are active candidates who are virtual non-entities in the discussion, and former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, who apparently is still in the exploratory phase is about as noticed as the dozens of candidates formally running for the nomination whom nobody outside of their immediate families have ever really heard of.

On Thursday, most of the major GOP candidates, who had announced campaigns, took part in the first Iowa debate of the season, sponsored by Fox News. It all took place in the same week as many of the candidates (along with Palin) visited the famous Iowa State Fair, and the debate was also in conjunction with today's Iowa Republican Straw Poll, which drew a large crowd of over 16,000 people anxious to make Barack Obama a one term President.

As for the debate, the conventional wisdom coming out of it was that national front-runner Mitt Romney had a pretty good showing and perhaps surprisingly, once again, none of the other candidates went after him very hard on the stage. This is in contrast to a story that was reported this week in which it claims that the Obama reelection effort, cognizant of the President's low public esteem is preparing a campaign that will focus on "killing" Romney with negative ads on his record and character. Apparently, they are in the belief that Romney will eventually earn his party's nomination and would be their toughest opponent.

While visiting the State Fair this week, a Romney event was interrupted by some left-wing hecklers who seemed determined to through Mitt off his game. Instead, Romney engaged them in a spirited back and forth over Obama's record and his own unwillingness to raise taxes. The site of an energized Romney, raising his voice is not something that has ever been seen much publicly, but many, especially conservatives on blogs and on talk radio who have been suspect of Romney, considered it to have been a pretty good moment for him. They seem to like the fact that it made him look more "human" and comparisons were even made to Ronald Reagan's famous "I am paying for his microphone" response back in 1980.

Newt Gingrich was also seen as having a pretty good debate by some , though few believe it will have any sort of positive influence for his campaign. While he once worked for Fox News, Gingrich took issue with the way questions were being asked by debate panelist Chris Wallace and took hm to task, much to the delight of the audience.

Herman Cain was a bit of a non-entity of the debate, as was Jon Huntsman who was making his first appearance on the national stage, and who seemed a bit nervous. Some people liked the performance of Rick Santorum, although his most memorable appearances on Thursday night involved lengthy back and forth exchanges with Ron Paul over foreign policy and Iran in particular. Those volleys were greeted with lots of cheering and booing among supporters in the audience.

The most notable aspect of the debate though were the exchanges of Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann who did their best to put aside the stereotype of "Minnesota Nice." While Pawlenty seemed sheepish and not very effective in going after Romney when given the chance in the debate, he was more forceful in using prepared statements to go after Bachmann, who fired back against her former Governor, and then some. While the attacks probably hurt both candidates to some extent, I think that Bachmann got the best out of the exchanges. Pawlenty really has found himself in a difficult position because he has now come across in debates as looking like a "wimp" in exchanges with male candidates and perhaps to some as a "bully" in going after the one female in the race.

While Pawlenty had another below par debate performance, Bachmann perhaps did not do as well overall as she did in the last debate, which seemed to pump fire into her campaign. The past week has seen her polling numbers slip a bit nationally and in some states, as the Rick Perry speculation neared its conclusion. Her supporters, and many others, took issue with what was seen as a very unflattering photo of her on the cover of Newsweek magazine in which she was dubbed the "Queen of Rage."

All of this brought us up to today, which saw several Republicans attending the Straw Poll in Iowa, while another candidate formally entered the contest in South Carolina. Romney, Huntsman, and Gingrich both kept a low profile today. While he was the winner of the Straw Poll four years ago, Romney made a decision several weeks ago to skip it and all straw polls this cycle. However, he was on the ballot and received 567 votes, which is either better or worse than expected, depending on who you ask.

Doing far worse at the event was Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter who received just 35 votes, while being one of the only people in the arena to have worn a suit and giving a speech, in which his speaking style can be described (by me) as nothing short of creepy. McCotter said he knew he would not do well in the Straw Poll but was aiming for "double digits." I assume he meant votes, not percentages. Amazingly enough, McCotter's vote total was about half that of the absent Jon Huntsman, who despite appearing in the debate, is making no attempt at all this cycle in Iowa. Gingrich received significantly more votes than those two men, but about two hundred fewer than Romney.

The Ames vote also featured a somewhat impressive write in total of over 700 votes for Texas Governor Rick Perry, who was aided on the ground by a grassroots organization devoted to getting him to run for President. Just before the Iowa event formally kicked off, Perry formally declared his candidacy in South Carolina before traveling to New Hampshire later in the day, and on to Iowa tomorrow. It was an interesting time for an announcement, designed to share headlines with the event in Iowa, although it is probably more accurate to say that Perry's kickoff will not have received the coverage it otherwise would have. Some Iowa Republicans have talked openly about how it offended them that Perry would show disrespect to the Straw Poll in that way.

Regardless of the time of the announcement, Perry is now formally in the race and many expect him to be a major contender for the nomination. The location was also a bit unorthodox, as the candidate gave a formal announcement speech at a gathering for the conservative blog Red State. Perry's path to capturing the nomination will depend heavily on his ability to convince Republicans anxious to defeat Barack Obama that he can appeal to audiences outside of the traditionally "Red States."

The other five candidates all focused on a good showing at the Straw Poll, mindful of the effect it might have on their campaign. Herman Cain perhaps gave the speech that fired up the crowd the most but finished in fifth, behind Rick Santorum, who probably can legitimately be pleased at that showing considering the expectations game. While neither are any real threat to win the actual Iowa Caucuses at this point, Santorum is better organized there currently than Cain, and has the support of many of Iowa's sizable number of home schooling advocates.

Among the three candidates who actually were seen as potential Straw Poll winners, it turned into a pretty close finish between first place winner Michele Bachmann and second placer Ron Paul. A difference of just about 200 votes separated them and there was some speculation that some people who had planned to vote for Paul, and who perhaps had their ticket paid for by his campaign, decided against voting for him after becoming more aware of his outside the Republican mainstream foreign policy views in the debate. Considering how good the Paul people have been at winning straw polls in the past, they probably should be kicking themselves a bit over not being able to secure just a few hundred more votes.

Finishing in the third place "show" position of the Straw Poll horse race was Tim Pawlenty, who received less than half the number of votes as the second place Paul. While perhaps a third place showing with 14 percent of the vote can be spun as surviving, that still has to be a disappointing result for the Pawlenty team which was seen as being the best organized and having spent the most money in Iowa. There will be much talk in the days and weeks ahead over whether the once promising Pawlenty campaign will be able to survive moving forward. For now, they may have to console themselves with the fact that the eventual 2008 GOP nominee John McCain received just one percent of the vote in the last straw poll. However, he did not participate in the event.

At the end of the day though, victory, no matter how narrow the margin, has to be sweet to the Bachmann campaign, who focused on her Iowa roots during her presentation today. It was almost as if she was denouncing his citizenship in Minnesota. With Perry now formally in the race, it was a good time for Bachmann to get some positive news, and she will be able to talk about it tomorrow on all five Sunday talk shows, a television tour de force known by news junkies as the "Full Ginsburg." In fact, she will the first ever Presidential candidate in American history to do that. So, many Americans will be having their Sunday brunch tomorrow with a side of Bachmann on television, legitimately declaring a political victory in the land of corn.